RenewableS 2013 GlObal STaTUS RePORT - REN21

ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BY TECHNOLOGY – Characteristics and Costs
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Table 2 (continued)
USD 0.05/kWh, from IRENA, op. cit. this note, p. 46. Investment
costs for hydropower projects can be as low as USD 400–500/kW,
but most realistic projects today are in the range of USD
1,000–3,000 per kW, per Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note, p.
1006. Off-grid capital costs and LCOE from REN21, Renewables
2011 Global Status Report (Paris: 2011). Note that the cost for
hydropower plants is site-specific and may have large variations.
Small capacity plants in some areas even may exceed these limits.
The cost is dependent on several factors especially plant load
factor, discount rate, and life of the project. Normally, small-scale
hydro projects last 20–50 years compared to large-scale hydro
plants, which may last 30–80 years. Hydro facilities that are
designed to be load-following (rather than baseload) have lower
capacity factors and therefore higher generation costs per kWh,
on average.
Ocean Energy: All data are from Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note.
Note that this is based on a very small number of installations to
date; LCOE range assumes a 7% discount rate. Electricity
generation costs are in the range of USD 0.31–0.39/kWh (EUR
0.24–0.30/kWh), from Sarasin, Working Towards a Cleaner and
Smarter Power Supply: Prospects for Renewables in the Energy
Revolution (Basel, Switzerland: December 2012), p. 11.
Solar PV: Rooftop solar systems: peak capacities are based on
Europe and drawn from European Photovoltaic Industry
Association (EPIA), Market Report 2011 (Brussels: January 2012),
and from EPIA, personal communication with REN21, 3 April
2012. Capacity factor from IRENA, op. cit. this note, p. 56. Note
that values outside of this range are possible for exceptional sites
(higher) or where siting is suboptimal (lower); adding tracking
systems can raise these capacity factors significantly, from
IRENA, idem. Capital costs based on: average of EUR 1,750/kW
(using exchange rate of EUR 1 = USD 1.3) for residential systems
up to 10 kWp, in fourth quarter of 2012, from German Solar
Industry Association (BSW-Solar), “Statistic Data on the German
Solar Power (Photovoltaic) Industry,” February 2013, at www.
solarwirtschaft.de; U.S. range of 4,300–5,000 by end of 2012,
with low end being average cost for non-residential systems (USD
5.04/W) and high end being average cost for residential systems
(USD 4.27/W), from U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association
(SEIA) and GTM Research, “U.S. Solar Market Grows 76% in 2012;
Now an Increasingly Competitive Energy Source for Millions of
Americans Today,” press release (Washington, DC and Boston,
MA: 14 March 2013); Japan based on average of about 437,000
JPY/kW for systems of 10–50 kW, and about 375,000 JPY/kW
(converted using JPY 1 = USD 0.099) for systems of 50–500 kW,
from Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI),
“Procurement Prices Calculation Committee,” www.meti.go.jp/
committee/gizi_0000015.html (in Japanese); typical global range
for industrial systems based on EUR 1,150–2,000/kW (converted
using EUR 1 = USD 1.3), from Gaëtan Masson, EPIA and IEA
Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA-PVPS), personal
communication with REN21, April 2013. Note that costs were
down significantly from the second quarter of 2012, when capital
costs in Germany for fixed-tilt rooftop systems averaged USD
2,200/kW, and in the United States average prices for residential
systems were USD 5,500/kW, with a range of USD 4,000–8,000,
per IRENA, op. cit. this note, pp. 7, 54, 55. Note that the IEA puts
capital costs for small-scale systems in the range of USD
2,400–6,000/kW, per IEA, Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013
(Paris: OECD/IEA, 2013), p. 30. LCOE costs for OECD and
non-OECD are 2012 USD, from lowest to highest, and based on
7% cost of capital, from IRENA, op. cit. this note, from IRENA
Renewable Cost Database, 2013, and from Michael Taylor, IRENA,
personal communication with REN21, May 2013; Europe based on
costs in the range of EUR 0.12–0.29/kWh (converted using EUR 1
= USD 1.3) for residential, commercial, and industrial projects in
the south and north of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the
United Kingdom, from EPIA database, provided by Masson, op.
cit. this note. Ground-mounted utility-scale systems: peak capacity
from EPIA, Market Report 2011, op. cit. this note, from David
Renne, International Solar Energy Society (ISES), personal
communication with REN21, April 2013, and from Denis Lenardic,
pvresources.com, personal communication with REN21, April
2013; also see relevant section and endnotes in Market and
Industry Trends by Technology. Conversion efficiency low of 10% is
for amorphous silicon and high of 30% is for concentrating PV,
from Gaetan Masson, EPIA and IEA-PVPS, personal communication
with REN21, 21 March 2013. Note that conversion efficiency
for ground-mounted utility-scale was noted as 15–27% in EPIA,
Market Report 2011, op. cit. this note. Capital costs based on the
following: typical global costs based on 1,000–1,500 Euros/kW
(converted using EUR 1 = USD 1.3) from Masson, April 2013, op.
cit. this note; USD 2,270/kW was the weighted average in the
United States at the end of 2012, from SEIA and GTM Research,
op. cit. this note; Japan based on average capital cost of 280,000
JPY/kW (converted using JPY 1 = USD 0.099) for systems over 1
MW, from Japanese METI, op. cit. this note; and China (USD
2,200/kW) and India (USD 1,700/kW) from IRENA, op. cit. this
note, pp. 54–55. Note that the U.S. range in the second quarter of
2012 was USD 2,000–3,600, with a capacity weighted average of
USD 2,900/kW, from IRENA, op. cit. this note. Also note that the
IEA puts capital costs for large-scale systems in the range of USD
1,300–3,500/kW, from IEA, Tracking Clean Energy…, op. cit. this
note, p. 30. LCOE based on the following: OECD and non-OECD
cost ranges are 2012 USD, with 7% discount rate, from IRENA,
Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note,
from IRENA Renewable Cost Database, 2013, and from Michael
Taylor, IRENA, personal communication with REN21, May 2013;
Europe based on LCOE in the range of EUR 0.11–0.26/kWh (using
exchange rate of EUR 1 = USD 1.3) for ground-mounted systems
in the south and north of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the
United Kingdom, from EPIA database, provided by Masson, op.
cit. this note. Note that the LCOE in Thailand is estimated to be in
the range of USD 0.15–0.18/kWh, based on input from project
developers and former Thai Minister of Energy Piyasvasti
Amranand, per Chris Greacen, Palang Thai, personal communication
with REN21, April 2013. While PV module prices are global,
balance of system costs are much more local. Also, note that
prices have been changing rapidly.
CSP: Characteristics including plant sizes from European Solar
Thermal Electricity Association (ESTELA), personal communication
with REN21, 22 March 2012 and 24 January 2013; from
Protermosolar, the Spanish Solar Thermal Electricity Industry
Association, April 2012; and based on parabolic trough plants that
are typically in the range of 50–200 MW; tower 20–70 MW; and
Linear Fresnel in the range of 1–50 MW, per Bank Sarasin, Solar
Industry: Survival of the Fittest in the Fiercely Competitive
Marketplace (Basel, Switzerland: November 2011). Note that
multiple systems can be combined for higher-capacity plants.
Capacity factors based on ESTELA, op. cit. this note, and on
Michael Mendelsohn, Travis Lowder, and Brendan Canavan,
Utility-Scale Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaics Projects:
A Technology and Market Overview (Golden, CO: U.S. National
Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), April 2012); on 20–28%
capacity factor for plants without storage and 40–50% for plants
with 6–7.5 hours storage, from U.S. Department of Energy,
SunShot Vision Study, prepared by NREL (Golden, CO: February
2012), p. 105; on 20–30% for parabolic trough plants without
storage and 40% to as high as 80% for tower plants with 6–15
hours of storage, from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs
in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 19; and on the capacity factor of
parabolic trough plants with six hours of storage, in conditions
typical of the U.S. Southwest estimated to be 35–42%, per
Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note, pp. 1004, 1006. Note that the
Gemasolar plant, which began operation in Spain in 2011, has
storage for up to 15 hours, per Torresol Energy, “Gemasol,” www.
torresolenergy.com/TORRESOL/gemasolar-plant/en. Capital costs
based on: U.S. parabolic trough and tower plants without storage
in the range of USD 4,000–6,000/kW, and trough and towers with
storage in the range of USD 7,000–10,000/kW, from U.S.
Department of Energy, Loans Programs Office, www.lgprogram.
energy.gov, provided by Fred Morse, Abengoa Solar, personal
communication with REN21, April 2013; and on parabolic trough
plants with storage capital costs of USD 4,700–7,300/kW in OECD
countries, and 3,100–4,050/kW in non-OECD (based on costs of
five projects), and costs with storage all from IRENA, Renewable
Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, pp. 19,
59–60; and on range of about 3,900–8,000/kW from IEA,
Tracking Clean Energy…, op. cit. this note. LCOE estimates in table
all assume a 10% cost of capital and come from IRENA,
Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p.
65. Other LCOE estimates include: range of USD 0.12–0.16/kWh
from GTM Research, Concentrating Solar Power 2011: Technology,
Costs and Markets (Boston: 15 February 2011); range of USD
0.19–0.29/kWh (assuming a 7% discount rate) from Edenhofer et
al., op. cit. this note, p. 1004, assuming 7% discount rate; and
EUR 0.15–0.20/kWh per ESTELA, The Essential Role for Solar
Thermal Electricity (Brussels: October 2012), p. 3.
Wind power: Characteristics based on the following: turbine sizes
from JRC, 2011 Technology Map…, op. cit. this note; on- and
offshore capacity factors from Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note,
p. 1005; and from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in
2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 36. Note that weighted average
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