RenewableS 2013 GlObal STaTUS RePORT - REN21

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ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BY TECHNOLOGY – Characteristics and Costs 99 Table 2 (continued) USD 0.05/kWh, from IRENA, op. cit. this note, p. 46. Investment costs for hydropower projects can be as low as USD 400–500/kW, but most realistic projects today are in the range of USD 1,000–3,000 per kW, per Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note, p. 1006. Off-grid capital costs and LCOE from REN21, Renewables 2011 Global Status Report (Paris: 2011). Note that the cost for hydropower plants is site-specific and may have large variations. Small capacity plants in some areas even may exceed these limits. The cost is dependent on several factors especially plant load factor, discount rate, and life of the project. Normally, small-scale hydro projects last 20–50 years compared to large-scale hydro plants, which may last 30–80 years. Hydro facilities that are designed to be load-following (rather than baseload) have lower capacity factors and therefore higher generation costs per kWh, on average. Ocean Energy: All data are from Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note. Note that this is based on a very small number of installations to date; LCOE range assumes a 7% discount rate. Electricity generation costs are in the range of USD 0.31–0.39/kWh (EUR 0.24–0.30/kWh), from Sarasin, Working Towards a Cleaner and Smarter Power Supply: Prospects for Renewables in the Energy Revolution (Basel, Switzerland: December 2012), p. 11. Solar PV: Rooftop solar systems: peak capacities are based on Europe and drawn from European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), Market Report 2011 (Brussels: January 2012), and from EPIA, personal communication with REN21, 3 April 2012. Capacity factor from IRENA, op. cit. this note, p. 56. Note that values outside of this range are possible for exceptional sites (higher) or where siting is suboptimal (lower); adding tracking systems can raise these capacity factors significantly, from IRENA, idem. Capital costs based on: average of EUR 1,750/kW (using exchange rate of EUR 1 = USD 1.3) for residential systems up to 10 kWp, in fourth quarter of 2012, from German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar), “Statistic Data on the German Solar Power (Photovoltaic) Industry,” February 2013, at www. solarwirtschaft.de; U.S. range of 4,300–5,000 by end of 2012, with low end being average cost for non-residential systems (USD 5.04/W) and high end being average cost for residential systems (USD 4.27/W), from U.S. Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and GTM Research, “U.S. Solar Market Grows 76% in 2012; Now an Increasingly Competitive Energy Source for Millions of Americans Today,” press release (Washington, DC and Boston, MA: 14 March 2013); Japan based on average of about 437,000 JPY/kW for systems of 10–50 kW, and about 375,000 JPY/kW (converted using JPY 1 = USD 0.099) for systems of 50–500 kW, from Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), “Procurement Prices Calculation Committee,” www.meti.go.jp/ committee/gizi_0000015.html (in Japanese); typical global range for industrial systems based on EUR 1,150–2,000/kW (converted using EUR 1 = USD 1.3), from Gaëtan Masson, EPIA and IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA-PVPS), personal communication with REN21, April 2013. Note that costs were down significantly from the second quarter of 2012, when capital costs in Germany for fixed-tilt rooftop systems averaged USD 2,200/kW, and in the United States average prices for residential systems were USD 5,500/kW, with a range of USD 4,000–8,000, per IRENA, op. cit. this note, pp. 7, 54, 55. Note that the IEA puts capital costs for small-scale systems in the range of USD 2,400–6,000/kW, per IEA, Tracking Clean Energy Progress 2013 (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2013), p. 30. LCOE costs for OECD and non-OECD are 2012 USD, from lowest to highest, and based on 7% cost of capital, from IRENA, op. cit. this note, from IRENA Renewable Cost Database, 2013, and from Michael Taylor, IRENA, personal communication with REN21, May 2013; Europe based on costs in the range of EUR 0.12–0.29/kWh (converted using EUR 1 = USD 1.3) for residential, commercial, and industrial projects in the south and north of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, from EPIA database, provided by Masson, op. cit. this note. Ground-mounted utility-scale systems: peak capacity from EPIA, Market Report 2011, op. cit. this note, from David Renne, International Solar Energy Society (ISES), personal communication with REN21, April 2013, and from Denis Lenardic, pvresources.com, personal communication with REN21, April 2013; also see relevant section and endnotes in Market and Industry Trends by Technology. Conversion efficiency low of 10% is for amorphous silicon and high of 30% is for concentrating PV, from Gaetan Masson, EPIA and IEA-PVPS, personal communication with REN21, 21 March 2013. Note that conversion efficiency for ground-mounted utility-scale was noted as 15–27% in EPIA, Market Report 2011, op. cit. this note. Capital costs based on the following: typical global costs based on 1,000–1,500 Euros/kW (converted using EUR 1 = USD 1.3) from Masson, April 2013, op. cit. this note; USD 2,270/kW was the weighted average in the United States at the end of 2012, from SEIA and GTM Research, op. cit. this note; Japan based on average capital cost of 280,000 JPY/kW (converted using JPY 1 = USD 0.099) for systems over 1 MW, from Japanese METI, op. cit. this note; and China (USD 2,200/kW) and India (USD 1,700/kW) from IRENA, op. cit. this note, pp. 54–55. Note that the U.S. range in the second quarter of 2012 was USD 2,000–3,600, with a capacity weighted average of USD 2,900/kW, from IRENA, op. cit. this note. Also note that the IEA puts capital costs for large-scale systems in the range of USD 1,300–3,500/kW, from IEA, Tracking Clean Energy…, op. cit. this note, p. 30. LCOE based on the following: OECD and non-OECD cost ranges are 2012 USD, with 7% discount rate, from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, from IRENA Renewable Cost Database, 2013, and from Michael Taylor, IRENA, personal communication with REN21, May 2013; Europe based on LCOE in the range of EUR 0.11–0.26/kWh (using exchange rate of EUR 1 = USD 1.3) for ground-mounted systems in the south and north of France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, from EPIA database, provided by Masson, op. cit. this note. Note that the LCOE in Thailand is estimated to be in the range of USD 0.15–0.18/kWh, based on input from project developers and former Thai Minister of Energy Piyasvasti Amranand, per Chris Greacen, Palang Thai, personal communication with REN21, April 2013. While PV module prices are global, balance of system costs are much more local. Also, note that prices have been changing rapidly. CSP: Characteristics including plant sizes from European Solar Thermal Electricity Association (ESTELA), personal communication with REN21, 22 March 2012 and 24 January 2013; from Protermosolar, the Spanish Solar Thermal Electricity Industry Association, April 2012; and based on parabolic trough plants that are typically in the range of 50–200 MW; tower 20–70 MW; and Linear Fresnel in the range of 1–50 MW, per Bank Sarasin, Solar Industry: Survival of the Fittest in the Fiercely Competitive Marketplace (Basel, Switzerland: November 2011). Note that multiple systems can be combined for higher-capacity plants. Capacity factors based on ESTELA, op. cit. this note, and on Michael Mendelsohn, Travis Lowder, and Brendan Canavan, Utility-Scale Concentrating Solar Power and Photovoltaics Projects: A Technology and Market Overview (Golden, CO: U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), April 2012); on 20–28% capacity factor for plants without storage and 40–50% for plants with 6–7.5 hours storage, from U.S. Department of Energy, SunShot Vision Study, prepared by NREL (Golden, CO: February 2012), p. 105; on 20–30% for parabolic trough plants without storage and 40% to as high as 80% for tower plants with 6–15 hours of storage, from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 19; and on the capacity factor of parabolic trough plants with six hours of storage, in conditions typical of the U.S. Southwest estimated to be 35–42%, per Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note, pp. 1004, 1006. Note that the Gemasolar plant, which began operation in Spain in 2011, has storage for up to 15 hours, per Torresol Energy, “Gemasol,” www. torresolenergy.com/TORRESOL/gemasolar-plant/en. Capital costs based on: U.S. parabolic trough and tower plants without storage in the range of USD 4,000–6,000/kW, and trough and towers with storage in the range of USD 7,000–10,000/kW, from U.S. Department of Energy, Loans Programs Office, www.lgprogram. energy.gov, provided by Fred Morse, Abengoa Solar, personal communication with REN21, April 2013; and on parabolic trough plants with storage capital costs of USD 4,700–7,300/kW in OECD countries, and 3,100–4,050/kW in non-OECD (based on costs of five projects), and costs with storage all from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, pp. 19, 59–60; and on range of about 3,900–8,000/kW from IEA, Tracking Clean Energy…, op. cit. this note. LCOE estimates in table all assume a 10% cost of capital and come from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 65. Other LCOE estimates include: range of USD 0.12–0.16/kWh from GTM Research, Concentrating Solar Power 2011: Technology, Costs and Markets (Boston: 15 February 2011); range of USD 0.19–0.29/kWh (assuming a 7% discount rate) from Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note, p. 1004, assuming 7% discount rate; and EUR 0.15–0.20/kWh per ESTELA, The Essential Role for Solar Thermal Electricity (Brussels: October 2012), p. 3. Wind power: Characteristics based on the following: turbine sizes from JRC, 2011 Technology Map…, op. cit. this note; on- and offshore capacity factors from Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note, p. 1005; and from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 36. Note that weighted average 162
capacity factors range from around 25% for China to an average 33% in the United States (with a range of 18–53%); ranges in Africa and Latin America are similar to the United States, whereas ranges in Europe are closer to China. Curtailments in China due to grid constraints put the average capacity factor for dispatched generation closer to 20%, all from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 36. Capital costs for onshore wind based on: range of USD 1,750–2,200/kW in major OECD markets in 2011, and average U.S. costs in the first half of 2012 around USD 1,750/kW (and as low as USD 1,500/kW), from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, pp. 18, 32–37; on Navigant’s BTM Consult, International Wind Energy Development: World Market Update 2012 (Copenhagen: 2013); on a range of about USD 1,250–2,300/kW from IEA, Tracking Clean Energy…, op. cit. this note; and on R. Wiser and M. Bolinger, 2011 Wind Technologies Market Report (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, 2012). LCOE for onshore wind assume 7% discount rate and are from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 37; IRENA Renewable Cost Database, 2013, and from Michael Taylor, IRENA, personal communication with REN21, May 2013; also based on range of USD 0.04–0.16 U.S. cents/kWh from IEA, Deploying Renewables…, op. cit. this note. Note that the lowest-cost onshore wind projects have been installed in China; higher costs have been experienced in Europe and the United States. Offshore capital costs based on: average costs in the range of USD 4,000–4,500/ kW from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 18; on Navigant’s BTM Consult, op. cit. this note; and on range of USD 3,000–6,000/kW from IEA, Tracking Clean Energy…, op. cit. this note. Offshore LCOE based on USD 0.15–0.17 assuming a 45% capacity factor, USD 0.035/kWh operations and maintenance cost, and 10% cost of capital, and on USD 0.14-0.15/kWh assuming a 50% capacity factor, from IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 38; also from the low LCOE for offshore wind in the OECD is about USD 0.15/kWh and the high is USD 0.23/kWh, assuming a 7% discount rate, per IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 37; IRENA Renewable Cost Database, 2013, and from Michael Taylor, IRENA, personal communication with REN21, May 2013. All small-scale wind data from World Wind Energy Association (WWEA), 2012 Small Wind World Report (Bonn: March 2012). Note that in 2011, installed costs of the top 10 small wind turbine models in the United States were in the range of USD 2,300–10,000/kW in 2011, and the average installed cost of all small-scale wind turbines was USD 6,040/kW; in China, the average was USD 1,900/kW, per WWEA, Small Wind World Report 2013 (Bonn: March 2013). HEAT AND COOLING SECTOR Biomass heat: Cost variations between heat plants are wide for reasons similar to those listed above for bio-power. Further details can be found at: Fachagentur Nachwachsende Rohstoff e.V. (FNR), “Faustzahlen Biogas,” www.biogasportal.info/daten-und-fakten/faustzahlen/, viewed May 2013; and Pellet Fuels Institute, “Compare Fuel Costs,” http://pelletheat.org/pellets/ compare-fuel-costs/, viewed May 2013. Bioenergy CHP includes small-scale biogas engine generating sets and biomass medium-scale steam turbines. Data converted using USD 1 GJ = 0.36 U.S. cents/kWh. Geothermal heat: Geothermal space heating from Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note, pp. 427 and 1010–11 (converted from USD 2005 to 2012), assuming 7% discount rate, and using USD 1 GJ = 0.36 U.S. cents/kWh. Also, for building heating, assumptions included a load factor of 25–30%, and a lifetime of 20 years; and for district heating, the same load factor, a lifetime of 25 years, and transmission and distribution costs are not included. For ground-source heat pumps (GHP), Edenhofer et al., shows capital costs of USD (2012) 1,095–4,370/kW, and USD 20–65/GJ assuming 25–30% as the load factor and 20 years as the operational lifetime. In 2011, IEA indicated a range of USD 439–4,000/kW based on 2007 data and operating efficiency of 250–500% (COP of 2.5–5.0), from IEA, Technology Roadmap Energy – Efficient Buildings: Heating and Cooling Equipment (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2011), Table 5. It is worth taking into account that actual LCOE for GHP are influenced by electricity market prices. Drilling costs are included for commercial and institutional installations, but not for residential installations. Solar thermal heating: Solar heating plant sizes and efficiency rates for hot water systems and combi systems, based on 2007 data, from IEA, Technology Roadmap…, op. cit. this note, pp. 12–13, and district heat plant sizes from Werner Weiss, AEE – Institute for Sustainable Technologies (AEE-INTEC), Gleisdorf, Austria, personal communication with REN21, April 2012. Capital costs for OECD new-build and for OECD retrofit (for year 2007) from IEA, Technology Roadmap…, op. cit. this note; LCOE for domestic hot water (low end), and capital costs and LCOE for China (all converted from USD 2005 to USD 2012; and LCOE assuming 7% discount rate, and converted using USD 1/GJ = 0.36 U.S. cents/kWh) from Edenhofer et al., op. cit. this note, p. 1010; and LCOE for domestic hot water (high end) from Andreas Häberle, PSE AG, Freiburg, personal communication with REN21, 29 May 2013. European district heat capital costs from Weiss, op. cit. this note, and from Häberle, 25 April 2013. Note that the low of USD 470/kW is for district heat systems in Denmark, where costs start at about USD 370/kW (EUR 200/m 2 ) and storage costs a minimum of USD 100/kW. LCOE for district heat in Denmark based on low of EUR 0.03/kWh (converted using EUR 1 = USD 1.3), from Häberle, op. cit. this note. According to the IEA, the most cost-effective solar district heating systems in Denmark have had investment costs in the USD 350–400/kW range, resulting in heat prices of USD 35–40/MWh, from IEA, Technology Roadmap – Solar Heating and Cooling (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2012), p. 21. Industrial process heat data all from Häberle, 25 April 2013. Solar thermal cooling: Capacity data, efficiency, and capital cost in the range of USD 2,925–5,850/kW from Uli Jakob, “Status and Perspective of Solar Cooling Outside Australia,” in Proceedings of the Australian Solar Cooling 2013 Conference, Sydney, 12 April 2013. Efficiency based on coefficient of performance (COP) ranging from 0.50 to 0.70, depending on the system used and on driving, heat rejection, and cold water temperatures. Capital cost ranges based on EUR 2,250/kW for large-scale kits to EUR 4,500/ kW for small-scale kits. Low-end of capital costs based on range of USD 1,600–3,200/kW for medium- to large-scale systems from IEA, Technology Roadmap – Solar Heating and Cooling, op. cit. this note, p. 21. TRANSPORT SECTOR Biofuel costs vary widely due to fluctuating feedstock prices (see, for example, Agriculture Marketing Resource Center (AgMRC), “Tracking Ethanol Profitability,” www.agmrc.org/renewable_ energy/ethanol/tracking_ethanol_profitability.cfm). Costs quoted exclude value of any co-products. Data sources include: Ernst and Young, Renewable Energy Attractiveness Indices (London: November 2012); IRENA analysis (forthcoming 2013); JRC, 2011 Technology Roadmap ..., op. cit. this note. RURAL ENERGY Wind capital cost data based on what is representative for Africa, from B. Klimbie, “Small and Medium Wind for Off-Grid Electrification,” presentation at International Off-Grid Renewable Energy Conference and Exhibition (IOREC), 2 November 2012, cited in IRENA, Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2012…, op. cit. this note, p. 34; LCOE from Alliance for Rural Electrification, cited in Simon Rolland, “Campaigning for Small Wind: Facilitating Off-Grid Uptake,” Renewable Energy World, March–April 2013, pp. 47–49. All other data from past editions of REN21, Renewables Global Status Report (Paris: REN21 Secretariat, various years). 02 Renewables 2013 Global Status Report 163
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RenewableS 2013 GLOBAL STATUS REPOR
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FOREWORD Access to modern energy en
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TABLES TABLE 1 Estimated Direct and
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REN21 Flagship Products and Activit
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■■Lead Regional and Country Res
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■■Reviewers and other Contribut
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Renewable energy
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In response to rapidly changing mar
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TOP FIVE COUNTRIES ANNUAL INVESTMEN
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01 GLOBAL MARKET AND INDUSTRY OVERV
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■■Power Sector Total renewable
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Sidebar 1. The REN21 Renewables Glo
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■■Heating and Cooling Sector Mo
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02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BY TE
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ecame a net importer of ethanol (ma
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data. About 230 co-firing plants we
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■■Liquid Biofuels Industry The
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■■Geothermal Industry A large n
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Sidebar 3. Sustainability Spotlight
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Ocean Energy ■■Ocean Energy Mar
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SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS (PV) Figure 11.
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plant that started operating in 201
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Figure 14. Concentrating Solar Ther
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SOLAR THERMAL HEATING Figure 15. So
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Wind Power ■■Wind Power Markets
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Pacific to add capacity (0.4 GW), b
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Sidebar 4. Jobs in Renewable Energy
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TABLE 2. Status of Renewable Energy
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03 INVESTMENT FLOWS Global new inve
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Germany invested more than any othe
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■■Investment by Technology In 2
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■■Renewable Energy Investment i
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04 POLICY LANDSCAPE The number of p
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announced its target to develop 1 G
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In Europe, two existing RPS policie
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Sidebar 7. Linking Renewable Energy
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government targets called for an es
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establishments, including hospitals
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Table 3. Renewable Energy Support P
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Policy MAPS FIGURE 25. COUNTRIES WI
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05 RURAL RENEWABLE ENERGY Access to
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Solid biomass applications for dryi
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presents significant gaps among cou
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micro turbines were added to provid
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06 FEATURE: SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION B
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■■The Economic Challenge Conven
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REFERENCE TABLES TABLE R1. GLOBAL R
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Table R3. WOOD PELLET GLOBAL TRADE,
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TABLE R5. SOLAR PV GLOBAL CAPACITY
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TABLE R7. SOLAR WATER HEATING GLOBA
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TABLE R9. GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABL
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TABLE R10. SHARE OF PRIMARY AND FIN
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TABLE R10. SHARE OF PRIMARY AND FIN
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TABLE R11 ANNEX. SHARE OF ELECTRICI
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TABLE R12. OTHER RENEWABLE ENERGY T
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