RenewableS 2013 GlObal STaTUS RePORT - REN21

Sidebar 1. The REN21 Renewables Global Futures Report
In January 2013, REN21 published a sister report to its annual
Global Status Report—the REN21 Renewables Global Futures
Report—that portrays the status of current thinking about the
future of renewable energy.
The new report is not one scenario or viewpoint, but a synthesis
of the contemporary thinking of many, as compiled from 170
interviews with leading experts from around the world, and from
50 recent energy scenarios published by a range of organisations.
This synthesis shows the range of credible possibilities for
renewable energy futures based on both scenario projections
and expert opinion. The report also features a series of “Great
Debates” that frame current development and policy issues
and choices on the path to a transformed renewable energy
future.
The report shows that much contemporary thinking about the
future of renewable energy is rooted in the past. For example,
many conservative scenarios show future shares of renewable
energy remaining in the 15–20% range globally, about the level
today. But such views have become increasingly untenable
given the dynamic growth of markets over the past decade and
the dramatic technology evolution and cost reductions seen
in recent years. Many “moderate” scenarios show long-term
shares in the 30–45% range, and this range has become
increasingly credible in many countries. Beyond that, many
high-renewables projections show long-term shares in the
50–95% range, and such projections are also growing more
credible and becoming mainstreamed.
Projections for global renewable energy capacity by 2030 from
a variety of scenarios show wind power capacity increasing
between 4-fold and 12-fold, solar PV between 7-fold and
25-fold, CSP between 20-fold and 350-fold, bio-power
between 3-fold and 5-fold, geothermal between 4-fold and
15-fold, and hydro between 30% and 80% (all based on actual
2011 GW of capacity).
Expert and scenario projections show investments in renewable
energy of up to USD 500 billion annually by 2020–25. Finance
experts observed that many new sources of finance, from
community funds to pension funds, will be needed to support
such levels of investment. Finance experts also believed that
renewable energy projects are coming to be seen as among the
lowest-risk investments, posing “nothing more than standard
industrial risk” in the words of one expert, and even lower risk
than some fossil fuel-based investments.
The report shows that integration of renewable energy into
power grids, buildings, industry, and transport is becoming
a pressing and immediate issue. The report outlines a dozen
options for balancing high shares of variable renewables on
power grids, and dispels the myth that expensive energy storage
will be required. It also notes that while some utilities are
resisting integration progress, many others are at the forefront,
working actively to meet the integration challenge.
Integration into buildings is perhaps the most difficult, given
existing building materials and practices, but many costeffective
opportunities exist, and low-energy or zero-energy
buildings are important. In transport, integration in the form of
advanced biofuels and electric vehicles charged from renewables
is key, although still somewhat uncertain, according to
many of the experts. These integration opportunities and challenges
point to new types of policies needed to support each
form of integration, sector by sector, in parallel with the many
price- or cost-based policies that have existed historically.
Beyond integration, many experts viewed the long-term
future of renewable energy as “transformative” for for energy
systems—for example, as electric power becomes much
more flexible and multi-level, with variable supply and demand
interacting at centralised, distributed, and micro-grid levels; as
transport becomes provided by a much wider range of vehicle
and fuel types serving more differentiated needs for mobility;
and as renewable-energy-integrated building materials and
construction practices, coupled with low-energy building
designs, become ubiquitous.
Many experts said that the future challenges facing renewables
are no longer fundamentally about technology. Nor is economics
the bottleneck, as “grid parity” and other measures of
competitiveness have arrived, or are soon arriving, for many
renewables in numerous locales. Such views suggest that the
future of renewable energy is fundamentally a choice, not a
foregone conclusion given technology and economic trends.
certifier of voluntary green power, certified 27.8 TWh. 53 By early
2013, the 50 largest purchasers (including municipalities and
corporations) in the Environmental Protection Agency’s Green
Power Partnership were buying more than 17 TWh annually
from a variety of renewable sources, with 17 partners covering
all of their electricity demand. 54 Green power markets also exist
in Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Africa. 55
More than 50 major international corporations had adopted the
WindMade label by the end of 2012. 56 The label was launched
globally in 2011 to help consumers identify companies and
products using wind energy, and plans were announced in
2012 to develop a new label for all renewables. 57 In early
2013, a network of European environmental NGOs introduced
“EKOenergy,” aiming to provide a green labelling standard for
all of Europe. 58
Major industrial and commercial customers in Europe, India,
the United States, and elsewhere continued to install and
operate their own renewable power systems, while community-owned
and cooperative projects also increased in number
during 2012. 59 The year saw expanded installations of smallscale,
distributed renewable systems for remote locations
as well as grid-connected systems where consumers prefer
to generate at least a portion of their electricity on-site. As
consumers increasingly become producers of power, particularly
in some European countries, some major utilities are losing
market share, putting strains on current business models. 60
01
Renewables 2013 Global Status Report 23