RenewableS 2013 GlObal STaTUS RePORT - REN21

ENDNOTES 02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BY TECHNOLOGY – Bioenergy
Bioenergy
1 The International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook
2012 (Paris: 2012) reported 12,730 Mtoe of world primary energy
demand in 2010. This number was extrapolated out to 2012
by assuming 2.6% growth per year in non-OECD countries and
limited growth in OECD countries. The resulting 12,780 Mtoe was
converted to 537 EJ. The estimated total bioenergy share is based
on Helena Chum et al., “Bioenergy,” Chapter 2 in O. Edenhofer et
al., eds. IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Resources and
Climate Change Mitigation, prepared by Working Group III of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge, U.K. and
New York: Cambridge University Press, 2011). Given the uncertainties
of this extrapolation and particularly of the traditional
biomass data available, the 10% of primary energy quoted as
coming from biomass is probably within the range of 8–12%.
2 Chum et al., op cit. note 1.
3 There is extensive literature on the topic of sustainable biofuel
production; see, for example, Uwe R. Fritsche, Ralph E.H. Sims,
and Andrea Monti, “Direct and Indirect Land-Use Competition
Issues for Energy Crops and Their Sustainable Production – An
Overview,” Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, 22 November
2010; M. Adami, et al., “Remote Sensing Time Series to Evaluate
Direct Land Use Change of Recent Expanded Sugarcane Crop
in Brazil,” Sustainability, vol. 4 (2013): 574-85; J. Clancy and J.
Lovett, Biofuels and Rural Poverty (Oxford: Earthscan Publishing,
2011); and Global Bioenergy Partnership, The Global Bioenergy
Partnership Sustainability Indicators for Bioenergy, First Edition
(Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations,
2011)
4 The Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), established in
2004, aims to ensure that palm oil plantations, which now equate
to around 12 million hectares, are managed and operated in a
sustainable manner, per RSPO Secretariat, “Why Palm Oil Matters
In Your Everyday Life” (Kuala Lumpur: January 2013). Some 28
million tonnes of palm oil are produced annually, comprising some
30% of total global vegetable oil production, of which 15% are
used for biofuels, per RSPO Secretariat, “Sustainability Initiatives -
Palm Oil, Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO),” at
www.roundtablecocoa.org/showpage.asp?commodity_palmoil.
5 David Laborde, Assessing the Land Use Change Consequences
of European Biofuel Policies, report prepared for the Directorate
General for Trade of the European Commission (Brussels: 2011). A
series of BBC reports in late 2012 covered the issue of food versus
fuel being exacerbated by drought conditions; see James Melik,
“Nestle blames biofuels for high food prices,” BBC News, 17 July
2012; James Melik, “New biofuels offer hope to hungry world,”
BBC News, 8 August 2012; and “US biofuel production should be
suspended, UN says,” BBC News, 10 August 2012. There is also
an argument that producing biofuels increases household income,
which leads to improved access to food; see Clancy and Lovett,
op. cit. note 3.
6 World corn production in 2012 was around 830 million tonnes,
per Oklahoma State University, Department of Plant and Soil
Sciences, Nitrogen Use Efficiency Web, “World Wheat, Corn &
Rice,” http://nue.okstate.edu/Crop_Information/World_Wheat_
Production.htm; Laborde, op. cit. note 5. The U.S. Department
of Agriculture’s monthly supply and demand estimates for
agricultural commodities, released in mid-December 2012, put
consumption of corn for ethanol production at 27% of U.S. maize
crop production in 2010/11, although about one-third of the processed
corn ends up as an animal feed co-product, per Pangea,
Who’s Fooling Whom? The Real Drivers Behind the 2010/2011
Food Crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa (Brussels: October 2012). The
amounts of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) produced
are provided in U.S. Grains Council, A Guide to Distiller’s Dried
Grains with Solubles (DDGS) (Washington, DC: October 2012).
7 Figure 5 based on bioenergy data for 2010 from IEA, op. cit. note
1. Based on 1,277 Mtoe (53.7 EJ) in 2010 and considering a
growth rate of 1.4% per year. CHP with biomass is included under
both electricity and heat. Available datasets used to compile each
component of Figure 5 have uncertainties in the region of +10%
or more. The losses shown occur during the process when converting
from the various “primary” biomass feedstocks to obtain
useful heat, electricity, or liquid and gaseous biofuels. Traditional
biomass is converted inefficiently into useful heat for direct use,
whereas modern biomass is converted into a range of energy
carriers (solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels as well as electricity and
heat) which are then consumed by end-users to provide useful
energy services in the three sectors.
8 Traditional biomass (see Glossary for definitions of traditional and
modern biomass used in this report) is fuelwood, charcoal, animal
dung, and agricultural residues combusted in simple appliances
(such as cooking stoves) with very low efficiencies (typically
around 10–15%) to produce heat used mainly for cooking and
the heating of dwellings in non-OECD countries. This definition
is debatable, because stoves with relatively energy-efficient
designs are becoming more widely used and, in addition, some
older designs of large-scale biomass conversion technologies with
relatively low efficiencies are included under “modern biomass.”
Heat data are very uncertain, but the GSR 2012 reported that total
heat generated from biomass was around 45.5 PJ in 2011, which
rose to about 46 PJ in 2012. This was based on global demand for
biomass of 1,230 Mtoe (51.5 EJ) in 2009 and considering a growth
rate of 1.4% per year, from IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011 (Paris:
2011), and on the breakdown of bioenergy use for traditional and
modern applications based on Chum et al., op cit. note 1.
9 IEA, op. cit. note 1.
10 IEA, op. cit. note 1. Also see Endnote 1 for assumptions about total
primary energy consumption and the share from biomass.
11 There are three major sources of biofuel production and
consumption data: F.O. Licht, IEA Medium Oil Market Reports, and
the FAO Agricultural Outlook (see OECD, “Agricultural Outlook,”
http://stats.oecd.org/viewhtml.aspx?QueryId=36348&vh=0000
&vf=0&l&il=&lang=en). The quoted data for 2012 are preliminary
and vary considerably between them, so throughout this section,
to assess the trends and biofuel production in 2012 compared
with 2011, F.O. Licht data were mainly used. The 1% drop in total
biofuel volume produced in 2012 (from 106.5 billion litres in 2011
to 105.5 billion litres) was offset partly by an increase in the total
energy content because ethanol (~23 MJ/l) declined but biodiesel
(~40MJ/l) increased. By way of comparison on a volume basis, the
IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report 2013 (Paris: 2013) showed a
7% reduction of total biofuel production from 106.5 billion litres in
2011 to 101.1 billion litres in 2012.
12 P. Lamers, Ecofys/Utrecht University, personal communication
with REN21, 9 April 2013. Around 3.3 million tonnes comes
to Europe from North America; 1.0 million tonnes comes from
Eastern bloc countries; 0.1 million tonnes comes from South
Africa, Australia, and New Zealand; and 3.7 million tonnes is
traded internally between European countries. See also Reference
Table R3.
13 Biomass exchanges include the North American (nabiomassexchange.com/),
Minneapolis (www.mbioex.com), Minnesota
(mnbiomassexchange.org), and Biomass Commodity Exchange
(www.biomasscommodityexchange.com). Rotterdam also has
an exchange for pellets, see “World's First Biomass Commodity
Exchange,” Rotterdam Port Information Yearbook, 52nd Edition,
at www.rotterdamportinfo.com.
14 Details of pellet trading routes in REN21, Renewables 2012 Global
Status Report (Paris: 2012), Figure 6, p. 34. Note that these were
preliminary data and that volumes of flows change from year to
year. For wood chip trade, see P. Lamers et al., Global Wood Chip
Trade for Energy (IEA Bioenergy, Task 40, 2012).
15 Based on 300 PJ of solid biomass fuels (excluding charcoal)
traded in 2010, from P. Lamers et al., “Developments in international
solid biofuel trade – an analysis of volumes, policies, and
market factors,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,
vol. 16, no. 5 (2012), pp. 3176–99, and on 120–130 PJ of net
trade in fuel ethanol and biodiesel in 2009, from P. Lamers et al.,
“International bioenergy trade – a review of past developments
in the liquid biofuels market,” Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Reviews, vol. 15, no. 6 (2011), pp. 2655–76.
16 Data for 2012 are preliminary. Figure 6 from the following
sources: “World Pellets Map,” Bioenergy International Magazine
(Stockholm: 2013); Maurizio Cocchi et al., Global Wood Pellet
Industry Market and Trade Study (IEA Bioenergy, Task 40,
Sustainable Bioenergy Trade, December 2011); Eurostat, “Data
explorer - EU27 trade since 1995 by CN8,” 2013, at http://epp.
eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database;
C.S. Goh et al., “Wood pellet market and trade: a global
perspective,” Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining, vol. 7 (2013),
pp. 24–42; Lamers et al., op. cit. note 15.
17 Cocchi et al., op. cit. note 16.
18 IEA, Bioenergy Annual Report 2011 (Paris: 2011).
19 Estimate of 8.2 million tonnes from sources in Endnote 16.
20 Data for 2012 showing that Canada exported 1.22 million
tonnes and the United States exported 1.995 million tonnes
140