RenewableS 2013 GlObal STaTUS RePORT - REN21

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06 A reservoir serving a hydropower facility near the town of Mingachevir in northwestern Azerbaijan. Flexible plants such as hydro and bio-power facilities can respond rapidly to system fluctuations, supporting increasingly higher shares of variable solar and wind power. © NASA
06 FEATURE: SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION By Rainer Hinrichs-Rahlwes (German Renewable Energies Federation – BEE; European Renewable Energy Council – EREC) Renewable energy is growing rapidly and is likely to become the backbone of a secure and sustainable energy supply in an increasing number of developed and developing countries. Variable renewables such as wind and solar are growing particularly quickly in the electricity sector. Hydropower, geothermal, and bioenergy are being integrated into existing energy systems and markets in a growing number of countries, as fossil fuel and nuclear capacity is replaced with renewable-based technologies, and as supply chains are adapted. By contrast, integrating large shares of variable wind and solar requires that the energy mix and infrastructure become increasingly flexible and, where feasible, interconnected. 1 A number of countries are aiming beyond mere integration of renewable energy by enacting policies and measures to transform their energy systems to accommodate rising shares of variable renewables. For countries and regions planning to achieve very high shares i of wind and solar energy, system transformation is the most efficient and least costly way to do so. “System transformation” is defined as the process of adapting the energy system by replacing traditional baseload power from coal-fired and nuclear power plants with a flexibility-driven system that enables significant increases in shares of variable renewables. It entails shifting from a system that is relatively rigid and centralised to one that is more nimble and decentralised. Producers, consumers, grid operators, and other actors will play greater roles in optimising supply and demand, in part through the use of information technologies (sometimes called “smart grids”), and also through increased interconnection of all energy sectors—power, heating and cooling, and transport. The earliest and biggest challenges have to be met within the electricity sector, where relatively inflexible, conventional power plants and grid systems must, over time, be integrated with intelligent, flexibility-driven systems to support rising shares of a mix of variable and dispatchable renewable energy. Excess electricity can be used increasingly for transportation, heating, and cooling. Therefore, although transformation will require a change in the energy system as a whole, transformation of the electricity system is both feasible and most urgent. ■■Shifting Paradigms: From Integrating Renewables to System Transformation For many years, it was believed that renewable energy technologies (other than large hydro) could only supplement the established electricity system, and that there was an inherent limit on the share of variable renewable sources that it could accommodate. ii Experience in Denmark, Germany, Spain, and elsewhere, however, has demonstrated that the implementation of suitable policies can enable the successful integration of higher shares of variable renewables than was thought possible only a few years ago, while also providing unforeseen benefits. 2 Most of the alleged constraints to achieving higher shares of renewables either have resulted from a lack of political will to enact the required enabling legislation and actions, or they have been disproven as technical solutions to overcome the various challenges have emerged. Hence, variable renewables are becoming a major part (meaning around 15–20% or more) of the electricity supply in an increasing number of countries. 3 It is now evident that a mix of variable and dispatchable renewables can provide a stable and reliable electricity supply. 4 As installed capacities of renewables increase, a portfolio of different renewable technologies can often cover the major part of the power demand and, where inter-connected to other grids, can provide a surplus to export. They can provide electricity around the clock and throughout the year at reasonable costs, if the grid system and the regulatory framework are flexible and operated smartly. Further, it has been shown that renewables can reduce electricity prices considerably and thus alleviate energy costs for consumers. 5 iii Rising shares of variable renewable energy sources have triggered discussions about potential risks for system stability, the need for back-up capacities, and limitations of existing market designs that may no longer be able to provide adequate signals for needed future investment in power plants and infrastructure. 6 These discussions began in countries and regions where wind power shares of the total electricity mix exceeded 15% (e.g., Denmark, northern Germany, northern Spain, South Australia). The debate is expanding to other regions and technologies with, for example, high shares of solar PV emerging in Spain, Italy, and increasingly throughout Germany. Although the present debate focuses on these OECD countries, it will soon become relevant for other countries (including major emerging economies) as their shares of wind and solar electricity generation increase. 06 i There is no specific percentage that applies. In a very inflexible system, the need for transformation may start at a level of 10%, whereas in other, more flexible, systems—including those with high existing shares of large hydropower—it may start well beyond 20 or 30%. ii This apprehension and doubt was less evident and less widely accepted in countries with high shares of hydropower, a resource that is quickly dispatchable and can serve as balancing power. iii This is a consequence of the merit order effect. Due to very low marginal costs of wind and solar power generation, all other power plants are pushed out of the merit order so that their full-load hours and resulting capacity factor decrease constantly. In addition, prices per kWh tend to be very low in times of high wind and solar yields. Renewables <strong>2013</strong> Global Status Report 89
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RenewableS 2013 GLOBAL STATUS REPOR
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FOREWORD Access to modern energy en
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TABLES TABLE 1 Estimated Direct and
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REN21 Flagship Products and Activit
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■■Lead Regional and Country Res
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■■Reviewers and other Contribut
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Renewable energy
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In response to rapidly changing mar
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TOP FIVE COUNTRIES ANNUAL INVESTMEN
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01 GLOBAL MARKET AND INDUSTRY OVERV
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■■Power Sector Total renewable
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Sidebar 1. The REN21 Renewables Glo
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■■Heating and Cooling Sector Mo
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02 MARKET AND INDUSTRY TRENDS BY TE
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ecame a net importer of ethanol (ma
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data. About 230 co-firing plants we
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■■Liquid Biofuels Industry The
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■■Geothermal Industry A large n
Page 37 and 38: Sidebar 3. Sustainability Spotlight
Page 39 and 40: Ocean Energy ■■Ocean Energy Mar
Page 41 and 42: SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAICS (PV) Figure 11.
Page 43 and 44: plant that started operating in 201
Page 45 and 46: Figure 14. Concentrating Solar Ther
Page 47 and 48: SOLAR THERMAL HEATING Figure 15. So
Page 49 and 50: Wind Power ■■Wind Power Markets
Page 51 and 52: Pacific to add capacity (0.4 GW), b
Page 53 and 54: Sidebar 4. Jobs in Renewable Energy
Page 55 and 56: TABLE 2. Status of Renewable Energy
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Page 65 and 66: 04 POLICY LANDSCAPE The number of p
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Page 69 and 70: In Europe, two existing RPS policie
Page 71 and 72: Sidebar 7. Linking Renewable Energy
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Page 79 and 80: Policy MAPS FIGURE 25. COUNTRIES WI
Page 81 and 82: 05 RURAL RENEWABLE ENERGY Access to
Page 83 and 84: Solid biomass applications for dryi
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Page 93 and 94: REFERENCE TABLES TABLE R1. GLOBAL R
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Page 97 and 98: TABLE R5. SOLAR PV GLOBAL CAPACITY
Page 99 and 100: TABLE R7. SOLAR WATER HEATING GLOBA
Page 101 and 102: TABLE R9. GLOBAL TRENDS IN RENEWABL
Page 103 and 104: TABLE R10. SHARE OF PRIMARY AND FIN
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Page 109 and 110: TABLE R12. OTHER RENEWABLE ENERGY T
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Page 121 and 122: TABLE R16. CITY AND LOCAL RENEWABLE
Page 123 and 124: TABLE R17. ELECTRICITY ACCESS BY RE
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Page 127 and 128: Council i , have shifted to trackin
Page 129 and 130: solar beam that heats a working flu
Page 131 and 132: Renewable portfolio standard (RPS)
Page 133 and 134: LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BIPV BNEF BOS
Page 135 and 136: - Solar, 4 March 2013; MERCOM Capit
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68 Dong Energy, “Green Heat to th
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are preliminary and are based on P.
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made, this has not yet become evide
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Hydropower 1 International Hydropow
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47 IMPSA, “Corporate Presentation
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op. cit. note 1, p. 13. Below expec
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66 Based on production capacity of
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7 Technology dominates from Proterm
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4 Ibid., p. 2. 5 Franz Mauthner, AE
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48 Daniel Rowe, Commonwealth Scient
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of 1,905 MW; and Poland added 880 M
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Global Wind Turbine OEM Market Lead
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capacity factors range from around
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Policy Landscape 1 This section is
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Launches Massive Renewable Program
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on Dec. 1,” biofuelsdigest.com, 2
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RURAL RENEWABLE ENERGY 1 Internatio
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Feature: SYSTEM TRANSFORMATION 1 Se
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Power: 2012 European Statistics (Br
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