December 2012 Number 1 - Utah Native Plant Society

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Species # Training Samples Utah Native Plant Society # Test Samples Table 2. Continued Test AUC Least Predictive Variable AUC Highest Predictive Variable Potentilla angelliae 13 5 0.8715 Slope Angle 0.4887 BIO 9 0.9699 Primula specuicola 27 11 0.9925 BIO 3 0.6973 BIO 16 0.8986 Psoralidium junceum 7 3 0.9942 BIO 11 0.5 BIO 12 0.9351 Psorothamnus arborescens var. pubescens Psorothamnus thompsoniae var. whitingii AUC 10 4 0.9997 BIO 2 0.4595 BIO 16 0.9812 12 4 0.9996 Slope Angle 0.5391 BIO 14 0.984 Rosa stellata ssp. abyssa 15 6 0.999 Slope Aspect 0.5631 Geology 0.9772 Salix arizonica 129 54 0.9961 Slope Aspect 0.7927 Geology 0.9772 Schoenocrambe argillacea 57 24 0.9999 Slope Aspect 0.7184 BIO 9 0.9905 Sclerocactus brevispinus 45 19 1 Geology*** 0.9011 BIO 7 0.9995 Sclerocactus glaucus 10 4 0.9039 BIO 10 0.3434 BIO 15 0.9249 Sclerocactus mesae-verdae 146 62 0.9997 Slope Aspect 0.648 BIO 6 0.9794 Sclerocactus parviflorus var. intermedius 11 4 0.9914 BIO 3 0.446 BIO 18 0.9473 Sclerocactus sileri 29 12 0.9949 Slope Aspect 0.6299 BIO 15 0.9548 Sclerocactus whipplei 35 14 0.9668 Slope Aspect 0.4761 BIO 15 0.852 Sclerocactus wrightiae 81 34 0.9869 Slope Angle 0.5928 BIO 12 0.9858 Shepherdia rotundifolia 91 38 0.9945 Slope Aspect 0.5764 BIO 15 0.924 Silene petersonii 20 8 0.9766 Slope Aspect 0.5782 BIO 6 0.9093 Silene rectiramea 11 4 1 Slope Aspect 0.5592 BIO 15 0.9866 Sphaeralcea janeae 18 7 0.9984 Slope Angle 0.7861 BIO 13 0.9927 Sphaeralcea psoraloides 40 17 0.9993 Slope Angle 0.5282 BIO 12 0.9812 Talinum thompsonii 10 4 1 Slope Aspect 0.5 BIO 6 0.9978 Thelypodiopsis juniperorum 33 13 0.9989 Slope Aspect 0.6393 BIO 7 0.9586 Townsendia aprica 52 21 0.9934 Slope Aspect 0.6216 BIO 11 0.9343 Townsendia glabella 77 33 0.9767 Slope Angle 0.5305 BIO 15 0.9328 Townsendia rothrockii 36 15 0.9902 BIO 2 0.6204 BIO 15 0.925 Trifolium neurophyllum 20 8 0.9862 Slope Aspect 0.4605 BIO 3 0.9729 Vanclevea stylosa 31 12 0.9924 Slope Aspect 0.6921 BIO 12 0.9618 Xylorhiza glabriuscula var. linearifolia 7 3 0.9981 BIO 11 0.4973 BIO 4 0.9204 Zigadenus vaginatus 16 6 0.995 Slope Angle 0.5341 Geology 0.9368 72
Calochortiana December 2012 Number 1 in the town of Shiprock near plant locations range from a high/low in January (coldest month) of 44.4 o F/17 o F to a high/low in July (hottest month) of 95 o F/58 o F (Ladyman 2004). The federal listing of Mesa Verde cactus provides detailed information on habitat, soil and climatic requirements of the plant, providing great detail to compare to model data. Mesa Verde Cactus has 208 species location points. Models were developed using 146 for model training and 62 for model test validation points. The full, pruned and topo models were used to analyze suitable habitat for Mesa Verde cactus. The AUC score of the full model, incorporating all of the environmental variables, was 0.9977. The AUC score of the pruned model, developed from jackknife analysis, was 0.997. The pruned model showed geology as the highest predictive variable. In comparison, the topo model AUC score was 0.831. The accuracy of the three niche models measured by AUC scores, demonstrated that all three models performed better than random (AUC 0.5). The full and pruned models were nearly identical in AUC scores (0.9977, 0.997). The topo model was out performed by both the full and pruned models. Variable isolation during jackknife analysis indicated geology, minimum temperature of coldest month, mean temperature of coldest quarter and temperature seasonality were the most predictive variables, with an AUC of 0.9 or above (Table 3). Variable inclusion during jackknife analysis did not show any significant results; the AUC scores only changed 0.001 between models. The least predictive variable was slope aspect. Table 3: Mesa Verde Cactus model AUC scores. Sclerocactus mesae-verdae Jackknife Variable Exclusion Jackknife Variable Isolation #Training samples 146 AUC without Geology 0.997 AUC with only Slope Aspect 0.5824 Iterations 500 AUC without BIO 4 0.9974 AUC with only BIO 2 0.6194 Training AUC 0.9977 AUC without BIO 1 0.9975 AUC with only Slope Angle 0.7073 #Test samples 62 AUC without BIO 10 0.9975 AUC with only BIO 12 0.7626 Test AUC 0.9977 AUC without BIO 11 0.9975 AUC with only BIO 19 0.7773 AUC Standard Deviation 0.0005 AUC without BIO 13 0.9975 AUC with only BIO 17 0.7802 AUC without BIO 16 0.9975 AUC with only BIO 14 0.7907 AUC without BIO 17 0.9975 AUC with only BIO 5 0.8222 AUC without BIO 18 0.9975 AUC with only BIO 18 0.834 AUC without BIO 19 0.9975 AUC with only BIO 13 0.8354 AUC without BIO 8 0.9975 AUC with only BIO 16 0.8423 AUC without BIO 9 0.9975 AUC with only BIO 7 0.8472 AUC without BIO 12 0.9976 AUC with only BIO 3 0.8556 AUC without BIO 14 0.9976 AUC with only BIO 10 0.8608 AUC without BIO 15 0.9976 AUC with only BIO 1 0.8774 AUC without BIO 2 0.9976 AUC with only BIO 9 0.8813 AUC without BIO 3 0.9976 AUC with only BIO 8 0.8919 AUC without BIO 5 0.9976 AUC with only BIO 15 0.8961 AUC without BIO 6 0.9976 AUC with only BIO 4 0.9141 AUC without BIO 7 0.9976 AUC with only BIO 11 0.9169 AUC without Slope Angle 0.9976 AUC with only BIO 6 0.9655 AUC without Slope Aspect 0.9976 AUC with only Geology 0.9888 73
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Pot Score Min Score Trend Threat In
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December 2012 Number 1 - Utah Native Plant Society

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