PRE-DRIVE C2X Deliverable D0.3 Final report_20100929.pdf

Final Report PRE-DRIVE C2X 29.9.2010
Details on the various cost unit rates applied and the assumptions made can be
found in Deliverable D5.2/5.3 “Social impact of cooperative systems/ Political
economics and business economic impacts of the system, potential business
models” because it would go beyond the scope of this report to include them here.
In the next step because of the long implementation period of cooperative systems
a dynamic model was developed to describe the expected development of the
vehicle population in Germany between 2010 and 2030. This was used to forecast
the penetration of C2X onboard units and to predict the effects of vehicular
communication on traffic accidents and congestions over the time.
In general the cost benefit analysis showed that implementation of cooperative
systems in Germany would have a positive social impact. Details can be found in
the above mentioned deliverable.
However, the work was not limited to developing a suitable method for a CBA of
cooperative systems and to apply these methods. As a final step benefits and costs
were analysed from a stakeholder’s position. For this purpose three major groups of
stakeholders were identified:
Road users (i.e. vehicle owners/drivers and other traffic participants),
Automotive OEMs, and
Public authorities
In this analysis subjective criteria were introduced such as vehicle drivers´
perception of the risk of an accident and the actual risk of an accident, the latter
usually being much higher than the perceived risk of an accident. This asymmetry is
expected to have a certain influence on the willingness of vehicle owners to pay for
C2X communication systems at least if these are offering only a subset of safety
and efficiency related services only.
In this case government incentives might be necessary to push market introduction
of cooperative systems. Another approach can be to over attractive information and
entertainment services on the same technological basis. The potential of these
applications to foster market introduction of cooperative systems is discussed in the
following chapters, where the PRE-DRIVE C2X considerations with regard to
business models are discussed.
2.3.5.3 Potential business cases, political economics and business economic system
impacts
Strategic business cases for PRE-DRIVE C2X
In order to implement cooperative systems on European roads it is necessary to
prove that the investments into this new technology pay back in a foreseeable
timeframe. Business cases need to be developed that consider all economic
aspects. These business cases are powerful tools to prepare investment decisions
Deliverable D0.3 Version 1.0 66
Final Report