Mr. Erik Milito - The House Committee on Natural Resources ...

3.1
Overview of Baseline and Alternative Trends
January 2012
<strong>The</strong> models show that domestic oil and gas production, and the jobs and revenues that accompany such production,
would experience a meaningful rebound under the Alternative Case, where a return to the 2007/2008 leasing, permitting,
and drilling activities are assumed. Under the Baseline Case, where a continuation of the current slowdown is assumed
going forward, natural gas production on federal lands stagnates, and oil production on federal lands would enter a
period of year over year decline through the year 2015.
3.2
Increased Leasing and Permitting
Would Lead to Increased Production
<strong>The</strong> models show that the effect of returning to 2007/2008 leasing and permitting levels is an increase of new domestic
oil and natural gas supply for American consumers.
<strong>The</strong> impact of returning to 2007/2008 permitting and leasing levels is substantial when it comes to natural gas
production, with a 516 billion cubic feet a year average increase in western states production over the next five years
(Table 2). In natural gas production, the biggest winners would be Wyoming, New Mexico and Colorado, where natural
gas production would increase on average by 262 billion cubic feet, 133 billion cubic feet, and 54 billion cubic feet,
respectively, each year over the 2011-2015 time period.
Figure 11:
Natural Gas Production From Leases on BLM Lands*
*Western States (Includes Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Utah and Wyoming)
Source: Economics International Corp. calculations based on information from BLM Oil & Gas Statistics (2010) and
ICF International Rocky Mountain Forecasts (2011)
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