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Mr. Erik Milito - The House Committee on Natural Resources ...

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www.woodmac.com<br />

Tax Scenarios – Government Revenues<br />

• Government tax increases* will result in a $16<br />

billi<strong>on</strong> increase in government revenue in the<br />

period 2011 to 2015.<br />

• However, starting in 2016 government revenue<br />

will be reduced (compared to the base case) due<br />

to the lost tax income from potential opportunities<br />

not being developed<br />

• We estimate a cumulative shortfall in government<br />

revenue* in the period 2016 to 2025 to potentially<br />

reach $144 billi<strong>on</strong> if sub-ec<strong>on</strong>omic fields do not<br />

get developed<br />

Estimated Government Revenue Impact due to Increased Taxes<br />

120,000<br />

Government Revenue (US$ Milli<strong>on</strong>s)<br />

100,000<br />

80,000<br />

60,000<br />

40,000<br />

20,000<br />

• C<strong>on</strong>sidering <strong>on</strong>ly incremental sub-ec<strong>on</strong>omic<br />

fields, results in a potential $65 billi<strong>on</strong> cumulative<br />

shortfall in government revenue between 2016<br />

and 2025<br />

0<br />

2011<br />

2013<br />

2015<br />

2017<br />

2019<br />

2021<br />

2023<br />

2025<br />

Base Case<br />

Total At Risk- Producti<strong>on</strong> Based Tax<br />

Base Case Less Current At Risk<br />

2027<br />

2029<br />

* Government revenue estimates include fields currently marginal and fields which become marginal under the high tax scenarios<br />

© Wood Mackenzie 22<br />

Delivering commercial insight

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