Mr. Erik Milito - The House Committee on Natural Resources ...

TABLE 11 – Baseline and Alternative Leasing and Permitting Scenarios
January 2012
Leases Issued
Colorado
Montana
New Mexico
North Dakota
Utah
Wyoming
Baseline
120
130
200
140
120
350
Alternatives
210
230
360
250
210
620
Permits Issued
Baseline
530
60
1,030
110
480
1,760
Alternatives
870
100
1,670
170
780
2,860
Under the assumption of ceteris paribus, all the other independent variables are assumed to remained fixed over the
forecast period. Thus, the Baseline and Alternative projections should not be viewed as predictions of future production.
Instead, this approach measures the difference between policy cases to evaluate the impact of policy differences.
VARIABLES USED:
OILPROD: total oil production (bbl)
GASPROD: total natural gas production (mcf)
NGLPROD: total natural gas liquids production (gallons)
LISSUED: number of new leases issued during the year
APD: number of APDs permitted during the year federal lands
SPUD: number of wells started (spud) during the year on federal lands
In the regression equations, the natural logarithms of the above variables are used.
1992: Dummy variable equal to 1 if year is 1992 or later and equal to 0 otherwise
2000: Dummy variable equal to 1 if year is 2000 or later and equal to 0 otherwise
2005: Dummy variable equal to 1 if year is 2005 or later and equal to 0 otherwise
REGRESSION EQUATIONS:
Oil production equation:
OILPROD = b 0
C + b 1
TREND + b 2
LISSUED + b 3
LISSUED(-1) + b 4
LISSUED(-2)
+ b 5
LISSUED(-3) + b 6
LISSUED(-4) + b 7
LISSUED(-5) + b 8
APD + b 9
APD(-1)
+ b 10
APD(-2) + b 11
APD(-3) + b 12
APD(-4) + b 13
APD(-5)
Gas production equation:
GASPROD = b 0
C + b 1
TREND + b 2
1992 + b 3
2000 + b 4
2005 + b 5
LISSUED + b 6
LISSUED(-1)
+ b 7
LISSUED(-2) + b 8
LISSUED(-3) + b 9
LISSUED(-4) + b 10
LISSUED(-5) + b 11
APD
+ b 12
APD(-1) + b 13
APD(-2) + b 14
APD(-3) + b 15
APD(-4) + b 16
APD(-5)
NGL production equation:
NGLPROD = b 0
C + b 1
GASPROD
New wells spud equation:
SPUD = b 0
C + b 1
TREND + b 2
LISSUED + b 3
LISSUED(-1) + b 4
LISSUED(-2) + b 5
LISSUED(-3) + b 6
LISSUED(-4)
+ b 7
LISSUED(-5) + b 8
APD + b 9
APD(-1) + b 10
APD(-2) + b 11
APD(-3) + b 12
APD(-4) + b 13
APD(-5)
+ b 10
APD(-2) + b 11
APD(-3) + b 12
APD(-4) + b 13
APD(-5)
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