Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE IX Land use and urban planning regulations in the Arab region largely ignore basic adaptation requirements to climate change. An estimated 75% <strong>of</strong> buildings and infrastructure in the region are at direct risk <strong>of</strong> climate change impacts, mainly from sea level rise, higher intensity and frequency <strong>of</strong> hot days and storm surges. Reliability <strong>of</strong> transportation systems, water supply and wastewater networks, and energy generation stations will be at risk. At a time when 42 small island-states have established the Alliance <strong>of</strong> Small Island States (AOSIS) to defend their common interests in the face <strong>of</strong> the damaging effects <strong>of</strong> climate change, we see artificial islands being built in some Arab countries and others being planned. These islands will be among the first to be swallowed by the rising sea level due to their small size and low elevation. Planning requirements specifying a minimum distance between permanent structures and the shoreline should take into account the threat <strong>of</strong> rising sea level. Choices <strong>of</strong> construction materials used for buildings and roads should consider the risk <strong>of</strong> rising temperatures. Plans for making infrastructure and buildings resilient to climate change are needed. This AFED report has found that virtually no work is being carried out to make the Arab countries prepared for climate change challenges. Specifically, no concerted data gathering and research efforts could be traced regarding the impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change on health, infrastructure, biodiversity, tourism, water and food production. The economic impact seems to be totally ignored. Reliable records on climate patterns in the region barely exist. Policymaking in the region has displayed, in many respects, deficiencies that need to be urgently remedied if Arab countries are to prepare for the potential negative impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change. Those range from sustainable management <strong>of</strong> natural resources to risk planning. The Maldives, for instance, has plans to save funds as an insurance policy to relocate its entire population in case <strong>of</strong> sea level rise. In the face <strong>of</strong> these urgent challenges and vulnerabilities, this report addresses the key areas at stake and hopes to serve as a basis upon which informed decisionmaking, planning, and diplomatic efforts can be built.
ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE XI INTRODUCTION Arab Environment: <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> 2009 Report <strong>of</strong> the Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED) <strong>Impact</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on Arab Countries Main Findings and Conclusions MOSTAFA K. TOLBA AND NAJIB W. SAAB Ours is a habitable planet because <strong>of</strong> a combination <strong>of</strong> conditions congenial to life. Earth’s climate is conducive to life because atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably CO2, trap a portion <strong>of</strong> the sunlight reflected <strong>of</strong>f its surface, thereby warming the planet. Since the Industrial Revolution human activities – in particular, fossil fuel usage, land use patterns, agriculture and deforestation – have increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, causing average temperatures to rise. That the climate is actually changing is now a globally accepted fact; even the few opponents who still deny that it is man-made agree that it is happening, but as a manifestation <strong>of</strong> a natural cycle. By 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> (IPCC), the United Nations’ scientific body on the issue, stated with high certainty that human causes lay behind most <strong>of</strong> the observed global temperature increases. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased from approximately 280 ppm (parts per million) in the pre-industrial age to around 430 today. At the level <strong>of</strong> 550 ppm, which could be reached as early as 2035, global average temperatures may rise by more than 2°C. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the stock <strong>of</strong> greenhouse gases could more than triple by the end <strong>of</strong> the century, giving at least a 50% risk <strong>of</strong> temperatures rising by more than 5°C during the decades to follow. The scale <strong>of</strong> such an increase could be illustrated by the fact that the climate is presently 5°C warmer than in the last ice age, which was over 10,000 years ago. The amount <strong>of</strong> carbon held in the oceans has increased, causing gradual but steady acidification that threatens marine ecosystems. Warmer water temperatures have also caused much coral bleaching. Increasing average temperatures have steadily caused melting <strong>of</strong> ice in the polar regions as well as <strong>of</strong> glaciers around the world. Warming ocean waters may cause the sea level to rise by up to 59 cm by 2100 according to IPCC 2007 estimates, or even up to 5 metres if the melting <strong>of</strong> the Antarctic ice sheet is taken into consideration. The IPCC predicts that 20 to 30% <strong>of</strong> species will be made extinct if the temperature increases by more than 1°C, which is already virtually unavoidable. Extreme weather events and variability will also likely to ensue.
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156 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CNA
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158 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS MENA
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