Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 95 at a temperature <strong>of</strong> 26ºC this same protozoa takes only 13 days to incubate (Epstein 2004). A 2006 study done in East Africa has revealed that a 3% increase in temperature in a certain region can mean an increase <strong>of</strong> 30-40% <strong>of</strong> mosquito abundance (Khamsi, 2006). Malik et al. (1998) report that in the southwestern part <strong>of</strong> Saudi Arabia transmission <strong>of</strong> malaria occurs throughout the year with peaks associated with the rainy season and hot summers. Al- Mansoob and Al-Mazzah (2005) investigated the role <strong>of</strong> climate on the malaria incidence rates in Yemen. They found significant associations between climatic factors such as temperature, relative humidity, rainfall volume and wind speed with incidence <strong>of</strong> malaria. Similarly, Bassiouny (2001) reported that favourable meteorological conditions (i.e., optimum temperature and relative humidity) led to the prolongation <strong>of</strong> the malaria transmission season to 8 months a year in Fayoum Governorate in Egypt. Hassan et al. (2003) confirmed these results and reported however that the most important predictor <strong>of</strong> risk in the Fayoum Governorate is hydrogeology. The study reported the spread <strong>of</strong> specific anopheles vectors in areas where they were previously absent. In New Halfa, Eastern Sudan, a time-series analysis study (Himeidan et al., 2007) showed that temperature and rainfall are driving forces <strong>of</strong> the spatial distribution <strong>of</strong> the malaria vector Anopheles gambiae. In northern Sudan, surveys <strong>of</strong> breeding sites <strong>of</strong> the Anopheles arabiensis revealed a seasonal pattern for the larval population which appeared to be linked to the rise and fall <strong>of</strong> the Nile River level (Ageep et al., 2009). Similarly, Hamad et al. (2002) reported seasonal transmission <strong>of</strong> malaria in Eastern Sudan, increasing with onset <strong>of</strong> rainy season and high humidity. ii) Other infectious diseases Other infectious diseases transmitted by vectors are also sensitive to climatic changes. The following are such examples: - Dengue (Breakbone or Dandy Fever): This is an acute febrile disease caused by a flavivirus, which is transmitted by the bite <strong>of</strong> previously called Aedes mosquitoes (now named Stegomyia aegypti). Dengue is endemic throughout the tropics and subtropics threatening approximately one-third <strong>of</strong> the world’s population. Its transmission increases with high rainfall, high temperature, and even, as some studies show, by drought (IPCC, 2007). - Cutaneous leishmaniasis (oriental sore or Aleppo Boil): The distribution <strong>of</strong> the phlebotomine sandfly vector responsible for the infection with cutaneous leishmaniasis has changed in the past years. Other sandflies have also re-emerged in certain parts <strong>of</strong> the world (IPCC, 2007). - Schistosomiasis (Bilharziasis): This is a visceral parasitic disease caused by blood flukes <strong>of</strong> the genus Schistosoma. The schistosomes that affect humans are trematodes and they require freshwater snails as intermediate hosts. Schistosomiasis also may be affected by climatic factors, and there is some evidence that the ‘freeze line’ has moved towards the north due to warmer temperatures (IPCC, 2007). This was supported by Malone et al. (1994) who used temperature data from satellite imagery to show that the range <strong>of</strong> S. mansoni in the Nile delta, Egypt, is expanding in the southern delta due to new irrigation channels, a more reliable water supply and the physical-chemical stability since the completion <strong>of</strong> the Aswan Dam. These changes have all provided a better fit to the hydrologic niche <strong>of</strong> the parasite. Moreover, the Bulinus truncates snail, which is the intermediate host <strong>of</strong> S. haematobium, is now able to tolerate several months <strong>of</strong> drought and high temperatures. The correlation between the density <strong>of</strong> Bulinus truncates with weather variations was monitored by Khallaayoune and Laamrani (1992) in the Attaouia area in Morocco. It was shown that snail populations followed a cyclical pattern where high density occurred in summer. Temperature was considered to be the most important factor that influenced the fluctuations in snails’ populations. Moreover, snails during the year <strong>of</strong> study (1987) were active throughout the year, due to the fact that the mean daily temperature was above 10 º C throughout the year. Observations on the pattern <strong>of</strong> snail infection rates showed that the maximal rate <strong>of</strong> infection happened in summer where the mean daily temperature was high and contact with water most frequent (Khallaayoune and Laamrani, 1992).
96 CHAPTER 7 HUMAN HEALTH - Diseases transmitted by rodents: These too tend to increase during heavy rainfall and flooding because rainfall and flooding increase the number <strong>of</strong> rodents. A good illustration would be the Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (IPCC, 2007). III. ADAPTATION PRACTICES The vulnerability <strong>of</strong> human health to climate change is a function <strong>of</strong> three factors: sensitivity which is a measure <strong>of</strong> the extent to which health, natural systems, and social systems are sensitive to climate change as well as the characteristics <strong>of</strong> the population; exposure to climate related hazards; and adaptation measures which are the measures applied to reduce the burden <strong>of</strong> a specific adverse health outcome. Arab countries may be low direct contributors to climate change but they are at high risk <strong>of</strong> its consequences, especially as it relates to health risks. Consequently, Arab countries must take adaptive measures to reduce the burden <strong>of</strong> disease or other related negative health outcomes related to climate change (Kovats, 2003). Those populations who do not or cannot adapt will be the most vulnerable to climate change. Mitigation measures are implemented at multiple levels to prevent ‘disasters’ or minimize their impact. In the case <strong>of</strong> heat waves, for example, mitigation measures include adopting building designs that take into consideration future heat waves due to climate change especially in Arab cities, such as in the United Arab Emirates and the Sultanate <strong>of</strong> Oman, which are expanding at a very fast pace. Buildings should limit the frequency, intensity, and duration <strong>of</strong> high-temperature episodes. As cities grow and merge so do their heat islands. Urban heat islands in large Arab cities can be reduced through urban planning and environmental preservation such as reducing automobile use, enhancing public transportation, planting trees, protecting biodiversity, and the like. Encouraging more environmentally sustainable development by reducing dependence on cars, and cutting wasteful resource and energy use is a needed policy. Heat wave warning systems to warn the population about upcoming heat waves are also recommended. However, the effectiveness <strong>of</strong> warning systems for extreme events depends on individuals’ awareness and their willingness to take appropriate action. Individuals can reduce their exposure by adjusting outdoor activity, modifying indoor air temperature, or dressing properly. In the case <strong>of</strong> other hazards or geographic contexts, such as floods, community awareness and preparedness becomes very important if it is technically or financially difficult to construct flood embankments or create new flood overflow routes. It is necessary that Arab countries implement measures at the country and regional levels in public health preparedness to face such calamities. In fact, such measures are still a priority to this region regardless <strong>of</strong> climate change considerations. A preparedness plan must address the three phases <strong>of</strong> a disaster: pre-disaster phase (e.g., mitigation; awareness; warning systems), disaster phase (e.g., response; health care facilities), and post-disaster phase (e.g., rehabilitation; long term impact; evaluation). At a minimum, the elements <strong>of</strong> a public health preparedness system must include the following: 1) Hazard mapping This is a crucial element <strong>of</strong> any preparedness plan where at-risk areas and vulnerable populations are clearly mapped. At-risk areas include arid lands, coastal cities prone to sea-level rise, areas around dams and irrigation projects, and overcrowded cities. Vulnerable populations include poor people who most likely have poor health with high infant mortality rates and low life expectancies, and tend to reside in areas or houses that are most vulnerable to climate change. The latter was illustrated in the latest flooding episode in Yemen which mainly affected the poorer populations. Populations in Arab countries that rely on nonirrigated agriculture are also likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Nomadic tribes living in the Sahara in North Africa and the Gulf area are also likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Such information will help policy makers determine priorities and decide on the adequate provision and distribution <strong>of</strong> resources, including health care resources and facilities. Geographical Information Systems (GIS) are an important tool in this endeavour. GIS links together geographical information (such as geographic coordinates <strong>of</strong> a specific point or the outline <strong>of</strong> an administrative region) to some relevant information about
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XII INTRODUCTION A number o
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XIV INTRODUCTION nology cooperation
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XVI INTRODUCTION The respondents to
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XVIII INTRODUCTION activities based
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XX INTRODUCTION by climate change.
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XXII INTRODUCTION REGIONAL CLIMATE
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CHAPTER 1 1 Arab Public Opinion and
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 3
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CHAPTER 2 13 GHG Emissions: Mitigat
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CHAPTER 3 31 A Remote Sensing Study
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156 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CNA
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158 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS MENA
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