Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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CHAPTER 5 63 <strong>Impact</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>: Vulnerability and Adaptation Food Production AYMAN F. ABOU HADID
64 CHAPTER 5 FOOD PRODUCTION I. INTRODUCTION Food security in the Arab world has experienced a long history <strong>of</strong> environmental and socio-economic pressures. The dominant arid conditions, limited water resources, erratic cropping patterns, low knowledge and technology levels are the main factors presently affecting food production systems in the Arab world. Most recent assessments have concluded that arid and semi-arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate change (IPCC, 2007a). On the other hand, at a high level conference <strong>of</strong> the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) held in Rome in June 2008, the delegates asserted that agriculture is not only a fundamental human activity at risk from climate change, it is a major driver <strong>of</strong> environmental and climate change itself. The projected climatic changes will be among the most important challenges for agriculture in the twenty-first century, especially for developing countries and arid regions (IPCC, 2007a). By the end <strong>of</strong> the 21 st century, the Arab region will face an increase <strong>of</strong> 2 to 5.5 º C in the surface temperature. This increase will be coupled with a projected decrease in precipitation up to 20%. These projected changes will lead to shorter winters and dryer summers, hotter summers, more frequent heat wave occurrence, and more variability and extreme weather events occurrence (IPCC, 2007b). II. KEY IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN THE ARAB WORLD The risks associated with agriculture and climate change arise out <strong>of</strong> strong complicated relationships between agriculture and the climate system, plus the high reliance <strong>of</strong> agriculture on finite natural resources (Abou-Hadid, 2009). The interannual, monthly and daily distribution <strong>of</strong> climate variables (e.g., temperature, radiation, precipitation, water vapour pressure in the air and wind speed) affects a number <strong>of</strong> physical, chemical and biological processes that drive the productivity <strong>of</strong> agricultural, forestry and fisheries systems (IPCC, 2007a). In the cases <strong>of</strong> forestry and fisheries systems, vulnerability depends on exposure and sensitivity to climate conditions, and on the capacity to cope with changing conditions. The current total cultivated area in the Arab region makes up about 5% <strong>of</strong> the total global cultivated area, and it represents about 5% <strong>of</strong> the total area <strong>of</strong> Arab world (FAO, 2008b). Most <strong>of</strong> the Arab region’s lands are classified as hyperarid, semi-arid and arid land zones (WRI, 2002). The relationship between the cultivated area and the population is one <strong>of</strong> the major challenges facing food production in the region. The land share per capita is decreasing annually as a result <strong>of</strong> rapid population growth rates and urbanization (AOAD, 2008). By 2007, the average agricultural land share in the Arab region was about 0.23 ha per capita, which is slightly lower than the world average <strong>of</strong> 0.24 ha per capita. The dominant agricultural system in Arab countries is rainfed agriculture; the total irrigated area in the Arab world is less than 28% (FAO, 2008b). Therefore, annual agricultural productivity and food security are highly correlated to the annual variability <strong>of</strong> precipitation, which has exhibited major changes in recent decades (Abou-Hadid, 2006). Irrigated agriculture is widely represented in the Arabian Peninsula countries and Egypt, where fully irrigated agriculture makes up 100% and 95% <strong>of</strong> the total cultivated area, respectively. The agricultural productivity <strong>of</strong> most crops exhibited noticeable increases during recent years. The per capita food production index (PCFPI) shows the food output, excluding animal feed, <strong>of</strong> a country’s agriculture sector relative to the base period 1999-2001 (FAO, 2008b). The PCFPI value <strong>of</strong> the Arab region increased from 99.8 in 2003 to 112.3 by 2005, an increase <strong>of</strong> 13%, whereas the world values <strong>of</strong> the PCFPI increased during the same years by 20% (AOAD, 2008). The productivities <strong>of</strong> crops under irrigated agriculture in the Arab region improved due to switching to new cultivars, applying modern technologies and improving management programs; to yield some <strong>of</strong> the highest productivities all over the world in some Arab countries, such as in Egypt and Sudan. On the other hand, the majority <strong>of</strong> Arab countries have serious problems in agricultural production as a result <strong>of</strong> limited economic resources, low levels <strong>of</strong> technology, limited crop patterns, and environmental limitations and pressures (Agoumi, 2001).
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Arab Environment: Climate</
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE II
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE V
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE VI
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE IX
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XII INTRODUCTION A number o
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XIV INTRODUCTION nology cooperation
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XVI INTRODUCTION The respondents to
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XVIII INTRODUCTION activities based
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XX INTRODUCTION by climate change.
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XXII INTRODUCTION REGIONAL CLIMATE
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CHAPTER 1 1 Arab Public Opinion and
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 3
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CHAPTER 9 113 Impact</stron
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CHAPTER 10 121 Impact</stro
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CHAPTER 11 129 International Negoti
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156 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CNA
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158 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS MENA
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