Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 55
FIGURE 7
THE VULNERABILITY OF THE NILE DELTA REGION TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF
SEA LEVEL RISE.
(CRS-BU, E. Ghoneim - AFED 2009 Report)
Special analysis carried out for AFED Report by E. Ghoneim at the Center <strong>of</strong> Remote Sensing, Boston University
er for planning.
The World Bank study clearly shows that Qatar
will be the most impacted country by sea level
rise in terms <strong>of</strong> the percentage <strong>of</strong> vulnerable land
area and in terms <strong>of</strong> the percentage <strong>of</strong> wetland
affected by sea level rise. Egypt will be the most
impacted from the points <strong>of</strong> view <strong>of</strong> percentage
impact on GDP and agricultural production.
Some specific sub-regional details are presented
below:
Mediterranean Sea countries
The Nile Delta region and the cities <strong>of</strong>
Alexandria, Rosetta and Port Said and their
vicinity are undoubtedly the most vulnerable
areas in the North African region (e.g., El Raey
et al., 1995; El Raey, 1997a). The Nile Delta
region is vulnerable to the direct risk <strong>of</strong> inundation
<strong>of</strong> low land areas and the coastal areas
already below sea level and it is also vulnerable
to salt water intrusion and increasing soil salinity
<strong>of</strong> agricultural land. It is estimated that a
population <strong>of</strong> over six million people lives in
these vulnerable areas and these may have to
move away and abandon these areas. Noting
that the Nile Delta region produces over 60%
<strong>of</strong> the agricultural production <strong>of</strong> Egypt and the
above mentioned cities host more than 50% <strong>of</strong>
the industrial and economic activities <strong>of</strong> the
country, it is expected that the potential losses
in Egypt will be extremely high if no action is
taken.
One <strong>of</strong> the most important coastal problems is
coastal erosion, which is also expected to change
due to alterations <strong>of</strong> the coastal circulation pattern
in the region due to climate changes. Figure
6 shows the dynamics <strong>of</strong> coastal erosion in the
highly vulnerable region <strong>of</strong> Rosetta city and its
vicinity. The rates <strong>of</strong> coastal erosion <strong>of</strong> the
Rosetta promontory, for instance, due to losses <strong>of</strong>