Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 91
“The predicted trend towards increasingly variable
rainfall is likely to increase the risk <strong>of</strong> weather-related
natural disasters, such as floods... It is
possible that climate change may also change the
frequency <strong>of</strong> other weather disasters, such as
wind storms, but there is less agreement about
the nature and magnitude <strong>of</strong> change. Continuing
sea level rise will also contribute, by making
unprotected low-lying populations increasingly
vulnerable to coastal floods...” (Campbell-
Lendrum and Woodruff, 2007).
In the Arab region, we occasionally learn <strong>of</strong> a
local flood or landslide due to heavy rainfall.
These events cannot be directly attributed to climate
change but obviously warn us <strong>of</strong> the devastating
effects <strong>of</strong> floods if they happen at a larger
scale. For example, on 16 May 2007, a flood devastated
several villages in the Bekaa region in
Lebanon. Crops were destroyed and people had
to leave their houses because <strong>of</strong> high water levels.
There were no follow up reports on the health,
wellbeing, and livelihood <strong>of</strong> the displaced people
which is not atypical in many developing countries.
In addition, there is no proper research or
documentation in most Arab countries on the
frequency or intensity <strong>of</strong> such events. Mapping
the effects <strong>of</strong> a given event may also be useful in
identifying current and future populations at
risk. Maps <strong>of</strong> flood risk zones can be eventually
prepared and populations at risk can be warned
in time.
Of more concern and relevance lately are the
cyclone (Gonu) that hit Oman on June 6, 2007
and the floods that affected Yemen (Hadramout)
in 2008. The Cyclone Gonu in Oman was considered
one <strong>of</strong> the strongest in the Arabian Sea.
According to the Oman News Agency
(Associated Press, 2007), the cyclone killed 49
people in the country and around 20,000 people
were affected. According to the World Health
Organization (2008b) the floods in Yemen on
October 24-25, 2008, left 180 dead and 10,000
displaced. The floods destroyed 2,000 homes,
damaged water supply networks, and interrupted
access to telephones and electricity.
Indirect effects <strong>of</strong> climate change on
health
The effect <strong>of</strong> climate change on existing environmental
and public health problems is difficult to
discern. The challenge is to identify the ‘additionality’,
i.e., the increase in health problems
that can be attributed to climate change as an
additional risk factor. This requires advanced
and far reaching research agendas and tools. Not
much is known about the ‘traditional’ risk factors
and causes <strong>of</strong> many public health problems in the
Arab world, let alone the additional effect <strong>of</strong> climate
change. The Arab world unfortunately
remains one <strong>of</strong> the least published globally and, if
published, in journals and reports that are not
easily accessible by internet or recognized data