Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 141 and transfer <strong>of</strong> affordable environmentally sound technologies; (iii) Cooperation on research and development <strong>of</strong> current, new and innovative technology, including win-win solutions; (iv) The effectiveness <strong>of</strong> mechanisms and tools for technology cooperation in specific sectors. Finance Decision 1(e) <strong>of</strong> the Bali Action Plan calls for ‘enhanced action on the provision <strong>of</strong> financial resources and investment to support action on mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation’ including consideration <strong>of</strong> the following for developing countries: (i) Improved access to adequate, predictable and sustainable financial resources and technical support; (ii) Positive incentives for enhanced implementation <strong>of</strong> national mitigation strategies and adaptation action; (iii) Innovative means <strong>of</strong> funding to assist particularly vulnerable countries meet the costs <strong>of</strong> adaptation to the adverse impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change; (iv) Means to incentivize the implementation <strong>of</strong> adaptation actions on the basis <strong>of</strong> sustainable development policies; (v) Mobilization <strong>of</strong> public- and private-sector funding and investment, including facilitation <strong>of</strong> carbon-friendly investment choices; (VI) Financial and technical support for capacity-building in the assessment <strong>of</strong> the costs <strong>of</strong> adaptation. XI. POZNAN The 14th Conference <strong>of</strong> the Parties was convened in December 2008 in Poznan, Poland. Expectations for the meeting were not high, thanks to the global financial crisis, the lack <strong>of</strong> leadership from the US, and the weakening <strong>of</strong> earlier commitments by the EU. While some observers, mainly UN <strong>of</strong>ficials, argued that Poznan has set the stage for next the 2009 talks in Copenhagen, most <strong>of</strong> the major issues-mitigation targets and time-tables, funding for adaptation and technology transfer, and tropical deforestation-were pushed to Copenhagen. Despite the lack <strong>of</strong> progress toward a comprehensive, post-Kyoto agreement, there was one promising development-the pledge by some major developing countries to reduce their carbon emissions-a shift from past positions. Brazil pledged to cut its annual deforestation rate by 70% by 2017, which could reduce the country’s carbon emissions by 30-45% over the next decade. Mexico would reduce its emissions by 50% from 2002 levels by 2050 and South Africa’s emissions would plateau between 2020 and 2025 and begin to decline between 2030 and 2035. Similarly, China will reduce its ‘energy intensity’ by 20% by 2010 and India will boost solar energy production. These pledges are voluntary and their implementation is largely dependent on the extent <strong>of</strong> financial assistance and technology transfer by developed countries. Whether this, and the agreement on structuring the (small) Adaptation Fund, will pave the way toward a new global treaty remains to be seen. The core questions-how much developed countries will reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, what will the rapidly industrializing countries like China and India actually do to control their rapidly growing emissions, and how the poorer countries will be assisted in their adaptation efforts and in pursuing low-carbon developmentremain untouched. Many observers believe that the success <strong>of</strong> Copenhagen in 2009 hinges on the new leadership in the US. President Obama has said that he wants to return to 1990 emission level by 2020. He also believes that a US energy strategy to tackle climate change would contribute to improving the economy, and has called for a $150 billion investment to create 5 million ‘green’ jobs in the next 10 years. XII. CONCLUSION: THE ROAD TO COPENHAGEN Since December 2008, there is little agreement
142 CHAPTER 11 INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS FOR A POST-KYOTO REGIME on the key issues that have divided North and South negotiators so far, and scepticism that a comprehensive post-2012 treaty will be reached is growing. What is now clear is that developing countries will not accept commitments that imply significant restrictions on their economic growth. Such countries as China and India point with justifiable satisfaction to the rapid growth they have achieved in the recent past and the rise in living standards that has resulted. They support their position by pointing to the large percentages <strong>of</strong> their populations still living in extreme poverty and their need for rapid expansion in employment to absorb these labour surpluses. Developing countries believe that their economic growth must be supported by increases in energy use, although accepting the possibility that energy use per unit <strong>of</strong> production can continue to decline, as it has done up to now. Therefore, despite pressure from developed countries, developing countries are highly unlikely to accept binding restrictions or national caps on greenhouse gas emissions comparable to those in the Kyoto Protocol for Annex I countries. Those will be seen as almost certain to restrict economic growth, because the base <strong>of</strong> renewable energy generation is small and both China and India are very dependent on coal for electric power generation. In the event these countries should prove willing to accept future national emission ceilings, they would insist that those caps would become binding only well into the future. In either case, a strategy that can lead to immediate action is sorely needed. At the same time, the Annex I countries will not accept that the world’s other major emitters continue with ‘business as usual’ as the underlying principle. Not only would this risk substantial leakage <strong>of</strong> emissions to the developing world, it would also imply major financial transfers from North to South, whether under the Clean Development Mechanism, a global emission trading system, or another cooperative arrangement. As the U.S. government made clear during the pre-Kyoto negotiations, it will not incur significant mitigation costs unless the major developing countries agree to undertake significant actions as well. If the United States refuses to act, other industrialized countries will be limited in their commitments as well. REFERENCES Commission on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> and Development - CCD (2009). Closing the Gaps. International Task Force On <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> and Development, May 2009. At: www.ccdcommission.org Global Leadership for <strong>Climate</strong> Action - GLCA (2007). Framework for a Post-2012 Agreement on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>. September 2007. At http://www.globalclimateaction.org Global Leadership for <strong>Climate</strong> Action - GLCA (2008). Framework for a Post-2012 Agreement on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> - 2008 Update. September 2007. At: http://www.globalclimateaction.org Global Leadership for <strong>Climate</strong> Action - GLCA (2009). Facilitating an International Agreement on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>: Adaptation to <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>. Global Leadership for <strong>Climate</strong> Action, June 2009. Institute for Public Policy Research (2009). Fairness in Global <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Finance, March 2009. Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> - IPCC (2007). <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> 2007: <strong>Impact</strong>s, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution <strong>of</strong> Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report <strong>of</strong> the Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> [M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutik<strong>of</strong>, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson (Eds.)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Stern, Nicholas (2006). Stern Review on the Economics <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>. Report to the Prime Minister and the Chancellor <strong>of</strong> the Exchequer on the Economics <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>. UK. World Resources Institute - WRI (2008). From Positions to Agreement: Technology and Finance at the UNFCCC. December 2008.
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Arab Environment: Climate</
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE II
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XII INTRODUCTION A number o
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XIV INTRODUCTION nology cooperation
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XVI INTRODUCTION The respondents to
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XVIII INTRODUCTION activities based
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XX INTRODUCTION by climate change.
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XXII INTRODUCTION REGIONAL CLIMATE
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CHAPTER 1 1 Arab Public Opinion and
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 3
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CHAPTER 2 13 GHG Emissions: Mitigat
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CHAPTER 3 31 A Remote Sensing Study
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CHAPTER 4 47 Impact</strong
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