Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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CHAPTER 9
INFRASTRUCTURE
from 0.5 to 1.4 meters; with some studies showing
that melting from ice sheets alone could cause
SLR <strong>of</strong> up to 2 meters. Not only would SLR
result in the inundation <strong>of</strong> highly populated and
productive areas, but it would also accentuate the
impact <strong>of</strong> sea surges leading to beach degradation,
erosion <strong>of</strong> road bases, instability <strong>of</strong> bridges
and harbour structures, in addition <strong>of</strong> posing
serious hazards to coastal population.
These projections could have dire consequences
for the Arab world considering the concentration
<strong>of</strong> very significant proportions <strong>of</strong> population and
economic assets in coastal zones in the major
cities such as Alexandria, Casablanca, Algiers,
Tripoli, Tunis, Beirut, Latakia, Jidda, Basra,
Kuwait city and Dubai. In a study by the
Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) (Nicholls et al., 2008)
Alexandria was currently ranked 9 th in terms <strong>of</strong>
exposed population (1.33 million) and 17 th in
terms <strong>of</strong> exposed assets ($28.46 billion) among
the world’s portal cities. By 2070, the city is projected
to be in the 11 th place in terms <strong>of</strong> exposed
population (4.38 million) and 20 th in terms <strong>of</strong>
exposed assets ($563.28 billion).
Despite the gravity <strong>of</strong> this situation there are very
few studies carried out assessing the impact <strong>of</strong>
SLR in the Arab region (e.g., AFED, 2008: 129-
131). One <strong>of</strong> these studies (El Raey et al., 1999)
provided an assessment <strong>of</strong> the impact <strong>of</strong> SLR on
the two main coastal directorates in Egypt:
Alexandria and Port Said. Current conditions
and those for 0.25, 0.5 and 1 meter projected
SLR were assessed. The study shows that these
areas are highly vulnerable to SLR with the
potential <strong>of</strong> forcing millions to permanently
migrate out and result in losses in the billions <strong>of</strong>
dollars to urban dwellings, recreational facilities,
industrial assets and infrastructure.
Al-Jeneid et al. (2008) assessed the impact <strong>of</strong>
SLR on Bahrain’s archipelago. SLR <strong>of</strong> 0.5, 1, 1.5,
2 and 5 meters were considered. The findings
underscore the vulnerability <strong>of</strong> Bahrain to SLR
even for the lower SLR <strong>of</strong> 0.5 meters. This is
mainly attributed to the concentration <strong>of</strong> population
and commercial and industrial activities in
the coastal areas. In particular, key industrial and
commercial parks and infrastructure including
main roads and highways are situated in lowlying
newly reclaimed areas.
One <strong>of</strong> the dilemmas facing policy makers in
dealing with the impact <strong>of</strong> SLR is striking a balance
between the costly investment in developing
and maintaining coastal protection works on the
one hand and the difficulty in controlling and
reversing urban and industrial growth in coastal
areas on the other. For instance, it is deemed prohibitively
expensive and socially disruptive to