Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 117 move millions <strong>of</strong> inhabitants, recreational facilities, commercial and industrial establishments out <strong>of</strong> the coastal areas in Egypt (El Raey et al. 1999). Also costly is the development <strong>of</strong> comprehensive coastal protection schemes along Egypt’s extended coastal line. In Bahrain, large investments have gone into developing reclaimed areas and few options are available to relocate potentially impacted populations and assets to the interior. El Raey et al. (1999) explore several adaptation options including beach nourishment enhanced by groins, breakwaters, land use change and regulation and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM). The first two options represent structural measures with varying costs, while land use and regulation represent “s<strong>of</strong>t” measures aimed at discouraging and reversing development in hazard-prone areas. The authors recommend adopting the latter option <strong>of</strong> ICZM which combines both measures in addition to raising public awareness, institutional cooperation and capacity building. The non-structural approaches are also emphasized by Kirshen et al. (2008) who conclude that in addition to being sustainable and environmentally friendly, they are flexible, noregrets and co-benefit policies. Neumann and Price (2009) emphasize that although coastal defence infrastructure is designed to mostly protect private property, it is more cost effective to plan and develop it at a large collective scale. They emphasize, however, the importance <strong>of</strong> integrating coastal protection with land-use planning where development in hazard-prone areas is strongly discouraged through public awareness, regulation and/or increasing insurance premiums. Although generally under extreme pressure from rising demand and water scarcity, water supply systems vary across the Arab region from those mostly dependant on renewable freshwater resources such as those in Egypt, Lebanon and Iraq to those that are totally dependent on nonrenewable fossil groundwater and desalination, namely the Arab Gulf states. Coupled with excessive growth in population and rising living standards, climate change will exacerbate water scarcity conditions across the Arab world. Most climate general circulation models (GCMs) project that North Africa and the Levant will undergo a persistent reduction in total precipitation coupled with rising temperatures, which will reduce available water resources (Assaf, 2009). Rising sea levels will increase pressure on coastal aquifers and will accelerate the on-going salinization in coastal aquifers such as those <strong>of</strong> Beirut and Gaza city. In Lebanon, climate change is expected to cause higher winter temperatures which will decrease snowfall, which will in turn reduce natural snowpack storage. Adaptation to these changes is most optimally and sustainably achieved through an integrated water supply/demand management. Demand management involves raising public awareness regarding water conservation, using water pricing as an incentive tool to reduce consumption and rehabilitating water networks to reduce losses. Studies in the USA have shown that the reliability <strong>of</strong> water resources systems is largely dependent on storage capacities, which are key factors in maintaining system resiliency under the impact <strong>of</strong> climate change (Kirshen et al., 2006). Dam reservoirs make up most <strong>of</strong> the storage capacity worldwide and in many Arab countries with river systems including Egypt, Morocco, Syria and Iraq. Aquifer IV. WATER SUPPLY AND WASTEWATER INFRASTRUCTURE
118 CHAPTER 9 INFRASTRUCTURE recharge is increasingly being used to take advantage <strong>of</strong> excess winter run<strong>of</strong>f. It has the added benefit <strong>of</strong> reducing evaporative losses. Treated wastewater represents a valuable water source that can be tapped to supplement freshwater water resources. Tunisia and Egypt have invested considerably in wastewater treatment facilities and supply networks (EUROMED, 2009). The projected increase in the intensity <strong>of</strong> rainfall events combined with reduction in hydraulic efficiency due to SLR in coastal areas is expected to result in more frequent sewer overflow, with associated public health problems, and flooding <strong>of</strong> culverts and roads (Infrastructure Canada, 2006). Also, more intense rainfall events and thunderstorms increase peak volume and sediment loading into wastewater treatment plants leading to inadequate treatment, reduction in efficiency and possible shutdown. Design criteria for wastewater elements need to be revisited to improve their resiliency under the impact <strong>of</strong> climate change. V. ENERGY GENERATION AND SUPPLY INFRASTRUCTURE Although great emphasis is placed on the energy sector as the main source <strong>of</strong> GHG emissions, the impact <strong>of</strong> climate change on the energy generation and supply system is much less studied. One <strong>of</strong> the main assessment studies on the impact <strong>of</strong> climate change on the energy sector was commissioned by the US <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Science Program (US CCSP, 2007). The study provides a summary <strong>of</strong> the current knowledge about the impact <strong>of</strong> climate change on consumption, generation and supply <strong>of</strong> energy in the US. Information gleaned from this report and deemed relevant to the Arab world is summarized briefly in the following paragraphs. Projected higher summer temperatures will increase cooling energy requirements, which are already a major item in the total energy bill <strong>of</strong> most Arab countries. In contrast, projected warmer winters will reduce heating energy requirements. However, these energy savings will be dwarfed by the increases in cooling energy requirements. This net increase in energy requirements will be tempered by savings to be gained through technological advances in improving the efficiency <strong>of</strong> energy intense equipment. A significant share <strong>of</strong> energy is used across the Arab world in groundwater abstraction, desalination, treatment, transfer and distribution. Projected climate change-induced declines in fresh water supplies and increase in demand in the region would increase energy requirements for all these activities. Projected increases in average air and water temperatures and limited availability <strong>of</strong> adequate cooling water supplies are expected to affect both the efficiency, operation and the development <strong>of</strong> new power plants. The performance <strong>of</strong> gas turbines is particularly sensitive to ambient temper-
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Arab Environment: Climate</
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE II
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE V
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE VI
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE IX
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XII INTRODUCTION A number o
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XIV INTRODUCTION nology cooperation
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XVI INTRODUCTION The respondents to
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XVIII INTRODUCTION activities based
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XX INTRODUCTION by climate change.
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XXII INTRODUCTION REGIONAL CLIMATE
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CHAPTER 1 1 Arab Public Opinion and
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 3
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CHAPTER 2 13 GHG Emissions: Mitigat
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CHAPTER 3 31 A Remote Sensing Study
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CHAPTER 4 47 Impact</strong
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CHAPTER 5 63 Impact</strong
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