Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 33 (CRS-BU, E. Ghoneim - AFED 2009 Report) to be inclusive <strong>of</strong> all impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change which can be traced using remote sensing. In light <strong>of</strong> the uncertainty surrounding the exact dynamics <strong>of</strong> climate change and scientific projections, this study takes into account the range from 1 m to 5 m SLR, without ascribing particular likelihoods to any particular value within that range; as such, the study seeks more to illuminate the potential disastrous ramifications <strong>of</strong> SLR, whatever the exact SLR will be. II. IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE ARAB COUNTRIES The past century has witnessed a 17 cm rise in the sea level (IPCC, 2001) at a mean rate <strong>of</strong> 1.75 mm per year (Miller and Douglas, 2004). The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report published in
34 CHAPTER 3 A REMOTE SENSING STUDY OF IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON THE ARAB REGION FIGURE 2 SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO AT 1 METER (CRS-BU, E. Ghoneim - AFED 2009 Report) FIGURE 3 SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO AT 2 METERS (CRS-BU, E. Ghoneim - AFED 2009 Report) 2007 predicted sea-level rise <strong>of</strong> up to 59 cm by 2100, excluding effects <strong>of</strong> potential dynamic changes in ice flow (IPCC, 2007). Taking into account the full “likely” range <strong>of</strong> predicted increases in temperature, SLR could even be amplified to up to 1.4 m by the year 2100 (Rahmstorf, 2007). Other researchers have predicted between 5-6 meters SLR in the event <strong>of</strong> the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse (Tol et al., 2006). As an indication <strong>of</strong> recent upward revision <strong>of</strong> projected climate change scenarios, Christopher Field, an American member <strong>of</strong> the IPCC and founding director <strong>of</strong> the Carnegie Institution’s Department <strong>of</strong> Global Ecology at Stanford University, said at the annual meeting <strong>of</strong> the American Association for the Advancement <strong>of</strong> Science in February 2009 that the pace <strong>of</strong> climate change exceeds predictions, as emissions since 2000 have outpaced the estimates used in IPCC 2007 report. Without any doubt, SLR is a global threat. With varying predictions on the extent <strong>of</strong> SLR, based on different variables which cannot all be foreseen, there is a near consensus on the need to apply precautionary principles to global warming. This explains why studies <strong>of</strong> impact, mainly those carried out by the World Bank, consider SLR scenarios between 1-5 meters. The threat emerges from the fact that a large percentage <strong>of</strong> the earth’s population inhabits vulnerable coastal zones. About 400 million people live within 20 km <strong>of</strong> a coast, worldwide (Gornitz, V., 2000). Worryingly, if the sea level rises by only 1 m, it
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Arab Environment: Climate</
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE II
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Page 12 and 13: XII INTRODUCTION A number o
Page 14 and 15: XIV INTRODUCTION nology cooperation
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Page 18 and 19: XVIII INTRODUCTION activities based
Page 20 and 21: XX INTRODUCTION by climate change.
Page 22 and 23: XXII INTRODUCTION REGIONAL CLIMATE
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 83
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CHAPTER 7 87 Impact</strong
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CHAPTER 8 101 Impact</stron
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CHAPTER 9 113 Impact</stron
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CHAPTER 10 121 Impact</stro
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CHAPTER 11 129 International Negoti
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CHAPTER 12 143 Interrelation betwee
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156 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CNA
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158 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS MENA
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