Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 59 many <strong>of</strong> these extreme events has not been well quantified. Recently, some areas have been exposed to volcanic activities (Saudi Arabia), and some others are exposed to snowing in the middle <strong>of</strong> the desert (Algeria, private communication). It is also well known that many extreme events are affected by El Niño and/or the ENSO phenomenon. Two examples <strong>of</strong> cases with exceptional floods resulting in extensive material and human damage are presented below (e.g., Agoumi, 2003): • <strong>Climate</strong>-related disaster in Algeria in November 2001 Extreme rainfall equivalent to an entire month <strong>of</strong> rain in several hours was recorded, and wind speeds reached 120 kilometres per hour. Most <strong>of</strong> the damage was concentrated in Algiers where this extreme event claimed 751 victims and caused damage estimated at US$300 million. There were 24,000 displaced persons and more than 2,700 homes were severely damaged. Between 40,000 and 50,000 persons lost their homes and nearly 109 roads were damaged. Despite being forecast by Algerian and foreign weather services the magnitude <strong>of</strong> the human and material damage was categorized as one <strong>of</strong> the most severe in the past 40 years. • Climatic disaster in Morocco in November 2002 FIGURE 12 FIGURE 13 DISTRIBUTION OF COASTAL CITIES OF SAUDI ARABIA ALONG THE RED SEA AND THE GULF TRAJECTORY OF KHAMASIN SAND STORM FROM NORTH AFRICA TOWARDS THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN Morocco experienced some <strong>of</strong> the worst flooding in its history, with considerable material and human damage. Initial estimates put the damage at 63 dead, 26 missing, and dozens wounded, while 24 houses collapsed and 373 were flooded. Hundreds <strong>of</strong> hectares <strong>of</strong> agricultural land were damaged; hundreds <strong>of</strong> heads <strong>of</strong> livestock swept away, and industrial plants sustained severe damage. The most important refinery in the kingdom (SAMIR) caught fire, leading to more than US$300 million in losses. This wet, rainy year followed several dry or partially dry years. Severe dust storms have been well known in the Arab region for quite some time. However, the severity <strong>of</strong> damage and the frequency <strong>of</strong> occurrence have been observed to increase (UNISDR, 2009). Figure 13 shows the trajectory <strong>of</strong> the Khamasin storms <strong>of</strong> North Africa and Figures 14a and 14b represent examples <strong>of</strong> satellite images and Source: Abdelkader et al., 2009 ground observations <strong>of</strong> these dust storms. <strong>Climate</strong> change is expected to exacerbate many <strong>of</strong> these extreme events by increasing their severity and frequency. New evidence also suggests that climate change is likely to change the nature <strong>of</strong> many types <strong>of</strong> hazards, not only hydro-meteorological events such as floods, windstorms, and droughts, but also events such as landslides, heat waves and disease outbreaks, influencing not only the intensity, but also the duration and magnitude <strong>of</strong> these events. Most <strong>of</strong> these extreme events cross coastal boundaries and are known to be regional in nature.
60 CHAPTER 4 COASTAL AREAS FIGURE 14(a) FIGURE 14(b) A SAHARAN DUST STORM OBSERVED BY A SATEL- LITE CROSSING THE MEDITERRANEAN AND IMPACTING THE WHOLE REGION AN EXAMPLE OF A DUST STORM ON A SAUDI ARABIAN INDUSTRIAL FACILITY The output <strong>of</strong> research suggests that there is good reason to be concerned about the dynamic, nonlinear and uncertain relationships between climate variability, climate change, and extreme events, and their implications for human security. The Arab region is not immune to other extreme events such as cyclones, hurricanes and tsunamis. The latest events, cyclone Gonu in Oman and the flood in Yemen, were very recent and clearly illustrate the importance <strong>of</strong> development <strong>of</strong> early warning signs that require the adoption <strong>of</strong> policies and measures for preparedness and risk reduction. A recent analysis been carried out by Dasgupta et al. (2009) studied the potential impacts <strong>of</strong> increasing frequencies and severities <strong>of</strong> storm surges based on best available data <strong>of</strong> human population, socioeconomic conditions, the pattern <strong>of</strong> land use and available Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) coastal elevation data. The results indicated that storm surge intensification would cause additional GDP losses (above the current 1-in-100-year reference standard) in the Middle East and North Africa <strong>of</strong> $12.7billion. The increase in impact on agricultural areas is significant for the MENA region, mainly because Egyptian and Algerian cropland in surge zones would increase from the existing estimated 212 km 2 to approximately 900 km 2 with SLR and intensified storm surges. The percentage increase in surge regions for MENA countries are shown in Figure 15. VI. ADAPTATION MEASURES Although the Arab region does not contribute more than 4.5% <strong>of</strong> world greenhouse gas emissions, it is among the most vulnerable regions in the world to the potential impacts <strong>of</strong> climate changes. The Arab countries therefore have to follow strong programs for adaptation <strong>of</strong> all sectors. Adaptation measures should include at least: • Carrying out a detailed vulnerability assessment using high resolution satellite imagery and recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) to assess vulnerable areas and identify vulnerable stakeholders given scenarios <strong>of</strong> SLR <strong>of</strong> the IPCC and taking into consideration land subsidence.
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Arab Environment: Climate</
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE II
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE V
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE VI
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE IX
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XII INTRODUCTION A number o
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XIV INTRODUCTION nology cooperation
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XVI INTRODUCTION The respondents to
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XVIII INTRODUCTION activities based
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XX INTRODUCTION by climate change.
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XXII INTRODUCTION REGIONAL CLIMATE
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CHAPTER 1 1 Arab Public Opinion and
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 3
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CHAPTER 9 113 Impact</stron
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CHAPTER 10 121 Impact</stro
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CHAPTER 11 129 International Negoti
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156 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CNA
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158 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS MENA
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