Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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CHAPTER 7
HUMAN HEALTH
I. INTRODUCTION
<strong>Climate</strong> change is an emerging risk factor on
human health. According to the
Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong>
(IPCC), the scientific body <strong>of</strong> the United
Nations Framework Convention on <strong>Climate</strong>
<strong>Change</strong> (UNFCCC), the health effects can be
direct such in the case <strong>of</strong> extreme weather events,
like storms, “floods, and heat waves, or indirect
such as “through changes in the ranges <strong>of</strong> disease
vectors (e.g., mosquitoes), water-borne
pathogens, water quality, air quality, and food
availability and quality” (IPCC, 2007).
The actual health impacts, however, are not uniform
across countries and regions. They vary in
extent and nature depending on local environmental
conditions, socio-economic circumstances,
and the range <strong>of</strong> adopted social, institutional,
technological, and behavioural measures
(IPCC, 1998; Patz and Kovatz, 2002; WHO
2007, WHO, 2008a). This is reflected in the
World Health Organization (WHO) estimation
<strong>of</strong> the contribution <strong>of</strong> climate change to the global
burden <strong>of</strong> disease measured in disabilityadjusted
life years (DALYs). The Arab region
comprises 22 different countries, with the majority
falling under two WHO sub-regional groupings.
The Eastern Mediterranean Sub-Region
(EMR-D), which includes Afghanistan,
Djibouti, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Pakistan,
Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen, is estimated to lose
213 DALYs per 100,000 people as compared to
14 DALYs/100,000 for EMR sub-region B,
which groups Bahrain, Cyprus, Iran, Jordan,
Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi
Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, and the United Arab
Emirates. Three Arab countries, Algeria,
Comoros and Mauritania are classified under the
Africa sub-region AFR (D). AFR (D) is estimated
to lose 207 DALYs per 100,000 people for climate
change (WHO, 2002).
Is it climate change Is it poverty Or is it the vulnerability
<strong>of</strong> poor countries to climate change
Most probably it is a combination <strong>of</strong> these factors
which explains the wide range <strong>of</strong> the global economic
value <strong>of</strong> loss <strong>of</strong> life due to climate change
(US $6-88 billion, in 1990 dollar prices) as
reported by the IPCC. The impact is projected to
be greatest in low-income countries. According
to the WHO Regional Office <strong>of</strong> Eastern
Mediterranean (WHO/EMRO, 2008a) the
region is ‘one <strong>of</strong> the most vulnerable regions to
climate change because <strong>of</strong> its arid nature and
reliance on rain-fed food production’ and
because <strong>of</strong> the endemic nature <strong>of</strong> many diseases
and health problems which are sensitive to poverty
and climate change, making the impact on this
region greater than that on the world as a whole
(Fankhauser and Tol, 1997).
This chapter reviews the impact <strong>of</strong> climate
change on human health in general, with a focus
on the Arab world. It also suggests selected adaptation
practices within the context <strong>of</strong> regional
resources and constraints.
II. HEALTH IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
The study <strong>of</strong> the impact <strong>of</strong> climate change on
health is rather challenging. In few instances,
health problems be it death or injury can be
directly linked to climate or weather changes such
as drowning due to floods or heatstroke due to
heat waves. Even this can be considered as a cyclical
variation in weather or climate, especially since
many natural calamities have been reported in
past history. The challenge is even bigger when
indirect health effects are considered. For example,
malaria-ridden countries might be at a higher
risk if the mosquito zones expand or the mosquito
biting season becomes longer because <strong>of</strong>
increased warmth or shorter cold seasons. The
same is true <strong>of</strong> mortality and morbidity due to air
pollution where climate change adds insult to
injury for overcrowded cities dependent on fossil
fuel for energy or transportation. Hence, the
study <strong>of</strong> the health impact <strong>of</strong> climate change is difficult
on country or sub-regional level. Reports
that succeeded in confirming this relationship
have in most cases zoomed out and looked at
wider geographical areas. This has not happened
yet in the Arab world. In fact, studies on the topic
<strong>of</strong> climate change and human health in Arab
countries are rare if not almost nonexistent. The
few potentially relevant published studies that
were identified were reviewed to provide regional
data and indirect evidence. Although clear associations
between health and climate change have
not been established through research, there are
some obvious potential effects <strong>of</strong> climate change
on health in the region.