Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 105 RAMSAR CONVENTION The Convention on Wetlands An intergovernmental treaty signed in Ramsar, Iran, in 1971, that provides the framework for national action and international cooperation for the conservation and wise use <strong>of</strong> wetlands and their resources. TABLE 4 WETLAND OF INTERNATIONAL IMPORTANCE IN SELECTED ARAB COUNTRIES Country No <strong>of</strong> sites Total Area (Ha) Algeria 42 2,959,615 Egypt 2 105,700 Iraq 1 137,700 Mauritania 4 1,240,600 Sudan 4 8,189,600 Tunisia 20 726,541 Source: Ramsar Convention erate strong heat and drought and these are likely to respond to climate change by either persisting in their current habitats or by shifting their distributions to relatively cooler or more humid areas at higher latitudes and/or altitudes. Shifts in distribution ranges have been recorded universally across a wide range <strong>of</strong> plant and animal groups and may be more dramatic for less widely studied taxa (Hickling et al., 2006). At a global level, species native to the Arab world may expand their distribution ranges into higher latitudes. For instance, South Mediterranean species which are at the warm end <strong>of</strong> the European temperature gradient with both medium niche breadth and range size are predicted to lose proportionally less suitable habitats and to gain a substantial amount <strong>of</strong> new habitats in cooler areas outside the Arab world (Thuiller et al., 2005b). If this is the case, then dispersal ability would become a determining factor because it is the migration <strong>of</strong> competitive dry land species which may ultimately result in the loss <strong>of</strong> suitable climate space for European species in Europe (Rivedi et al., 2008). At the regional level in the Arab world, both altitudinal and moisture gradients are expected to provide unique refuges for the last remaining populations. These refuges are special areas amidst predominantly arid and semi-arid lands that cater to niche ecosystems and harbour specialized species as well as species that are already at their ecological limit and as such are very vulnerable to climate change. Given the absence <strong>of</strong> published climate change prediction models for biodiversity in the Arab world it is important to draw on existing geo-referenced species distribution data to understand and predict species’ response in terms distribution range shifts. In this case, the use <strong>of</strong> hierarchical models which combine macro climate data including estimates <strong>of</strong> species’ thermal and moisture tolerances as well as micro climate data gradients along which species are distributed is essential; otherwise altitude/moisture driven variability in mountains and near water bodies will not be captured and findings will be skewed towards documenting responses <strong>of</strong> species prevalent in the more common arid and semi-arid biomes (Rivedi et al., 2008). Species vulnerability to climate change is therefore expected to be highest for unique species that are restricted in scope, and/or at the margin <strong>of</strong> their ecological tolerances. Examples <strong>of</strong> such unique situations include species that thrive at high altitudes under conditions <strong>of</strong> relatively moderate heat and/or moisture, as well as those that thrive near fresh water bodies and along coastal zones including islands. There are many species thriving in such unique habitats scattered within each Arab country such as the mangroves in Qatar, the cedar forests in Lebanon and Syria, the islands <strong>of</strong> Djibouti, the marshes <strong>of</strong> Iraq, the high mountain ranges <strong>of</strong> Yemen and Oman reaching 3,700 m and 3,000 m respectively, as well as the large rivers <strong>of</strong> the Nile (Egypt and Sudan), the Euphrates and Tigris (Iraq and Syria), and Yarmuk (Syria and Jordan). Specialized species and ecosystem niches at their ecological limits are distributed along the extensive coastline <strong>of</strong> the Arab world, such as the mangroves <strong>of</strong> Egypt which are highly localized and have a limited tolerance for ecological pressures. Documented temperature changes in sea water in various areas along the coasts <strong>of</strong> the Arab world have led to the designation <strong>of</strong> the coastlines <strong>of</strong> Oman and Somalia as coral bleaching hotspots
106 CHAPTER 8 ECOSYSTEMS AND BIODIVERSITY (NOAA/NESDIS, 2009). Some areas such as the lower section <strong>of</strong> the Red Sea and southern section <strong>of</strong> the Gulf have shown an increase between 1 to 1.5o C. Other areas have displayed lower but still significant increases between 0.5 to 1o C such as the upper section <strong>of</strong> the Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Gulf <strong>of</strong> Oman and the Arabian Sea. Increases in temperatures will also significantly affect biodiversity along sandy beaches and coastal sand dunes; for example marine turtles that use the beaches <strong>of</strong> Bahrain, Lebanon, and Oman for nesting will be affected significantly as an increase in soil temperature will affect the ratio <strong>of</strong> females and males and thus have irreversible consequences on the survival <strong>of</strong> the species in these regions. Wetlands may be among the most sensitive ecosystems in the Arab world due to significant impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change that can be induced from even small degrees <strong>of</strong> change in the amount and seasonality <strong>of</strong> rainfall and evaporation. High altitudes which provide refuges for many specialized species and niche ecosystems will undoubtedly witness distribution shifts and in some cases disappearance <strong>of</strong> species. Two coniferous tree species, the cedar <strong>of</strong> Lebanon and the silician fir reach their southernmost distribution limit in Lebanon and their distribution range will recede with increasing temperature to higher latitudes and altitudes in the region. Similarly the Juniper woodlands in Saudi Arabia which are currently concentrated in a narrow belt about 7,600 square kilometres in size at very high altitudes ranging between 2000 and 3000 m will be significantly affected by climate change (National Report to the CBD). This impact has been noted whereby decreased humidity and rainfall has impacted juniper trees in the mountains <strong>of</strong> Jibal Ash-Sharah in southern Jordan and Hijaz Mountains in Saudi Arabia; the tips <strong>of</strong> these trees are drying up and seed regeneration has decreased (Al Eisawi, unpublished). Prediction studies made in other parts <strong>of</strong> the world suggest that climate change will make it difficult for species thriving in unique microclimatic refuges to persist; in analogy to these predictions it is believed that species adapted to heat and drought and with broad distribution ranges in the Arab world will displace specialized species thriving in unique habitats and thus will cause them to lose all suitable climate space (Rivedi et al., 2008). For example, prediction models suggest that in South Mediterranean countries, mountain regions would experience a mean <strong>of</strong> 62% species loss and turnover showing a major change in floristic composition in time (Thuiller et al., 2005a). Furthermore, modelling studies predict that species tolerant to aridity will be the most stable and conserve their initial habitats and/or expand to new suitable habitats while species with narrow tolerance to higher temperatures would lose large proportions <strong>of</strong> habitats (40-60%) or migrate up slope towards new potential habitats if this is geographically available. Therefore, in contrast to species commonly adapted to heat and drought in desert and semi-desert biomes, the persistence <strong>of</strong> species in ecosystems such as riverine habitats, wetlands,
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Arab Environment: Climate</
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE II
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE V
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE IX
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XII INTRODUCTION A number o
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XIV INTRODUCTION nology cooperation
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XVI INTRODUCTION The respondents to
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XVIII INTRODUCTION activities based
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XX INTRODUCTION by climate change.
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XXII INTRODUCTION REGIONAL CLIMATE
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CHAPTER 1 1 Arab Public Opinion and
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 3
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CHAPTER 2 13 GHG Emissions: Mitigat
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CHAPTER 3 31 A Remote Sensing Study
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CHAPTER 4 47 Impact</strong
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156 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CNA
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158 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS MENA
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Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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