Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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CHAPTER 5
FOOD PRODUCTION
I. INTRODUCTION
Food security in the Arab world has experienced
a long history <strong>of</strong> environmental and socio-economic
pressures. The dominant arid conditions,
limited water resources, erratic cropping patterns,
low knowledge and technology levels are
the main factors presently affecting food production
systems in the Arab world.
Most recent assessments have concluded that arid
and semi-arid regions are highly vulnerable to climate
change (IPCC, 2007a). On the other hand,
at a high level conference <strong>of</strong> the Food and
Agriculture Organization (FAO) held in Rome in
June 2008, the delegates asserted that agriculture
is not only a fundamental human activity at risk
from climate change, it is a major driver <strong>of</strong> environmental
and climate change itself. The projected
climatic changes will be among the most
important challenges for agriculture in the twenty-first
century, especially for developing countries
and arid regions (IPCC, 2007a).
By the end <strong>of</strong> the 21 st century, the Arab region
will face an increase <strong>of</strong> 2 to 5.5 º C in the surface
temperature. This increase will be coupled with a
projected decrease in precipitation up to 20%.
These projected changes will lead to shorter winters
and dryer summers, hotter summers, more
frequent heat wave occurrence, and more variability
and extreme weather events occurrence
(IPCC, 2007b).
II. KEY IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITIES
OF THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR IN THE
ARAB WORLD
The risks associated with agriculture and climate
change arise out <strong>of</strong> strong complicated relationships
between agriculture and the climate system,
plus the high reliance <strong>of</strong> agriculture on finite natural
resources (Abou-Hadid, 2009). The interannual,
monthly and daily distribution <strong>of</strong> climate
variables (e.g., temperature, radiation, precipitation,
water vapour pressure in the air and wind
speed) affects a number <strong>of</strong> physical, chemical and
biological processes that drive the productivity <strong>of</strong>
agricultural, forestry and fisheries systems (IPCC,
2007a). In the cases <strong>of</strong> forestry and fisheries systems,
vulnerability depends on exposure and sensitivity
to climate conditions, and on the capacity
to cope with changing conditions.
The current total cultivated area in the Arab
region makes up about 5% <strong>of</strong> the total global cultivated
area, and it represents about 5% <strong>of</strong> the
total area <strong>of</strong> Arab world (FAO, 2008b). Most <strong>of</strong>
the Arab region’s lands are classified as hyperarid,
semi-arid and arid land zones (WRI, 2002).
The relationship between the cultivated area and
the population is one <strong>of</strong> the major challenges facing
food production in the region. The land
share per capita is decreasing annually as a result
<strong>of</strong> rapid population growth rates and urbanization
(AOAD, 2008). By 2007, the average agricultural
land share in the Arab region was about
0.23 ha per capita, which is slightly lower than
the world average <strong>of</strong> 0.24 ha per capita.
The dominant agricultural system in Arab countries
is rainfed agriculture; the total irrigated area
in the Arab world is less than 28% (FAO,
2008b). Therefore, annual agricultural productivity
and food security are highly correlated to
the annual variability <strong>of</strong> precipitation, which has
exhibited major changes in recent decades
(Abou-Hadid, 2006). Irrigated agriculture is
widely represented in the Arabian Peninsula
countries and Egypt, where fully irrigated agriculture
makes up 100% and 95% <strong>of</strong> the total cultivated
area, respectively.
The agricultural productivity <strong>of</strong> most crops
exhibited noticeable increases during recent
years. The per capita food production index
(PCFPI) shows the food output, excluding animal
feed, <strong>of</strong> a country’s agriculture sector relative
to the base period 1999-2001 (FAO, 2008b).
The PCFPI value <strong>of</strong> the Arab region increased
from 99.8 in 2003 to 112.3 by 2005, an increase
<strong>of</strong> 13%, whereas the world values <strong>of</strong> the PCFPI
increased during the same years by 20% (AOAD,
2008). The productivities <strong>of</strong> crops under irrigated
agriculture in the Arab region improved due
to switching to new cultivars, applying modern
technologies and improving management programs;
to yield some <strong>of</strong> the highest productivities
all over the world in some Arab countries, such as
in Egypt and Sudan. On the other hand, the
majority <strong>of</strong> Arab countries have serious problems
in agricultural production as a result <strong>of</strong> limited
economic resources, low levels <strong>of</strong> technology,
limited crop patterns, and environmental limitations
and pressures (Agoumi, 2001).