Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 107 and mountains in the Arab world is constrained by water availability, temperature, and/or their substrate (Table 1). The potential <strong>of</strong> these ecosystems to respond to climate change by migration is therefore limited and their survival more doubtful. IV. ECOSYSTEM COMPOSITION AND SPECIES VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE Adaptations to climate change will alter entire ecosystems in terms <strong>of</strong> physical, chemical and biological features and/or alter species composition forcing species to disperse, adapt or face ultimate extinction. Wherever conditions favour large changes in the number <strong>of</strong> species that coexist in a given area, or species richness, communities can be expected to undergo major reorganization. As a result protection <strong>of</strong> representative and/or ecosystems currently in existence will be problematic (Currie, 2001). Since species are generally expected to respond individually to climate change, there is potential for novel species combinations to occur, and for present day relationships to become increasingly decoupled (Thuiller et al., 2006). For instance the loss <strong>of</strong> the rarest species can be compensated by increased growth <strong>of</strong> the dominant species, whereas reductions in the density <strong>of</strong> the dominant species cannot be compensated by rare species. In terms <strong>of</strong> species richness, although many studies show positive effects <strong>of</strong> biodiversity on ecosystem function, others do not. The reason may be related to the position <strong>of</strong> the species most affected by climate change. For instance, if the loss <strong>of</strong> species is at top trophic levels or a keystone species, then it may have particularly strong ecosystem effects. On the other hand climate change induced loss <strong>of</strong> species at different trophic levels or different species groups will be difficult to predict in response to climate change. It is quite possible, however, that over the short term (decades to centuries) species richness will decrease, even in areas where richness is predicted to increase in the long term: as climate changes, species that are intolerant <strong>of</strong> local conditions may disappear relatively quickly while migration <strong>of</strong> new species into the area may be quite slow (Currie, 2001). Understanding species dispersal habits becomes essential since, with respect to the timescale considered by climate change predictions, dispersal habits can range from those that would be unable to disperse significantly to those that could readily disperse and establish. For example, species with large seeds will not migrate as quickly as species with lighter seeds or those seeds that can be dispersed by animals. Some simulation studies, however, show that many <strong>of</strong> the species whose potential distribution ranges change significantly will become non-viable because <strong>of</strong> delays in population responses to climate change (Miles et al., 2004). In general, species that currently have a broad distribution range will most likely have high dispersal ability while those that exist in few sites will likely have low dispersal ability and be more threatened by climate change driven disasters such as fires, droughts, and pest outbreaks. On the other hand, migrating species could experience multiple extinctions as they encounter anthropogenic land transformations or simply reach the mountain summit or water body edges. Future predictions <strong>of</strong> species vulnerability will need to be based on analytical tools such as broad modelling frameworks that focus on the species suitable climate space through the use <strong>of</strong> bioclimatic envelop models which depend on the analysis <strong>of</strong> the complex interactions at different levels (Pearson and Dawson, 2003) and/or integrative sensitivity analysis modelling which examines the effect <strong>of</strong> climate change on individual species, especially those that are rare, threatened and climate sensitive as well as ecological processes (Hannah et al., 2002).
108 CHAPTER 8 ECOSYSTEMS AND BIODIVERSITY TABLE 5 STATUS OF PROTECTED AREAS IN THE ARAB WORLD Country Protected Areas National and as a % <strong>of</strong> Total International Land Area (2004) a Protected Areas b Algeria 5.1 104 Bahrain - 6 Egypt 4.6 32 Iraq 0.0 10 Jordan 10.2 24 Kuwait 0.0 19 Lebanon 0.3 20 Libya 0.1 26 Mauritania 0.2 7 Morocco 0.8 81 Palestine - - Oman 0.1 7 Qatar - 4 Saudi Arabia 2.0 128 Somalia 0.3 25 Sudan 3.5 44 Syria - 18 Tunisia 0.2 87 UAE 0.0 15 Yemen - - World Coverage 6.1 - Sources: a) United Nations Environment Programme, 2005 b) WDPA, 2009 V. IN SITU CONSERVATION-PROTECTED AREAS AND THEIR ROLE IN MITIGAT- ING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE The Arab world has made major steps towards the designation <strong>of</strong> protected areas in each respective country (Table 5). Protected areas include both national areas which cover various ecosystems as well as international designations such as Ramsar sites, Man and Biosphere and World Heritage Sites. Protection <strong>of</strong> unique ecosystems and species at their ecological limits highlights the importance <strong>of</strong> establishing protected areas <strong>of</strong> adequate span into substantial climatic (temperature/rainfall) gradients and to be linked by corridors <strong>of</strong> natural/semi-natural habitats (Eclcy et al., 1999). In situ conservation including national parks and bio-reserves are key conservation tools used to protect species and their habitats within the confines <strong>of</strong> fixed boundaries. In contrast, changes in species distribution ranges in response to climate change are expected to be highly dynamic encompassing and sometimes sidestepping areas <strong>of</strong> protection. . Conservation managers pursuing species richness as a goal unto itself may not be protecting desired ecosystem functions. Instead targeted strategies such as control <strong>of</strong> invasive species may be more easily accomplished by identifying and targeting functionally important types <strong>of</strong> species (e.g. biocontrol agents or native competitors) than simply advocating increased species richness (Srivastava et al., 2005). For example national parks situated in desert and xeric shrubland biomes would be most sensitive to climate change as they will most likely experience a decrease in species richness. Protected areas situated in rare, patchy, and unique habitats may show a gain in floristic richness but would experience a change in species composition. If, for instance, habitat structure is changed due to the loss <strong>of</strong> keystone species, for example a tree species, to climate induced changes in fire regimes, this will have significant impact on fauna. Furthermore, the potential spread <strong>of</strong> species and their ability to track climate change beyond the boundaries <strong>of</strong> protected areas as in the case <strong>of</strong> the oryx, fox and other mammal species, will be unlikely without human intervention (Thuiller et al., 2006). For example, in Africa none <strong>of</strong> the 277 animal species examined were destined to extinction when full migration ability <strong>of</strong> species across landscape was assumed, and a maximum <strong>of</strong> 10 species when assuming no migration as these species would lose 100% <strong>of</strong> their suitable habitats. Furthermore, if a species becomes restricted to a few sites, then local catastrophic events could easily cause the extinction <strong>of</strong> that species; climate change can affect the susceptibility <strong>of</strong> animals to disease outbreaks, and particularly anthrax. Life cycles <strong>of</strong> ticks or other parasites are also particularly influenced by climate variation and could exacerbate risks <strong>of</strong> extinctions. In situ conservation sites situated in xeric and desert shrublands are not expected to meet their mandate <strong>of</strong> protecting current mammalian species diversity within protected boundaries and instead may face significant losses <strong>of</strong> species diversity that are not compensated by species influxes. Even when significant species losses are not anticipated there may be repercussions because <strong>of</strong> indirect effects caused by the rearrangement <strong>of</strong> animal communities which
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Arab Environment: Climate</
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE II
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE V
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE IX
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XII INTRODUCTION A number o
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XIV INTRODUCTION nology cooperation
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XVI INTRODUCTION The respondents to
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XVIII INTRODUCTION activities based
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XX INTRODUCTION by climate change.
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XXII INTRODUCTION REGIONAL CLIMATE
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CHAPTER 1 1 Arab Public Opinion and
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 3
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CHAPTER 2 13 GHG Emissions: Mitigat
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CHAPTER 3 31 A Remote Sensing Study
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CHAPTER 4 47 Impact</strong
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158 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS MENA
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Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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