Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 81 If this solution proves to be too expensive, the only remaining option would be desalination <strong>of</strong> sea and brackish groundwater which might be made cheaper if renewable energy (solar, wind, wave) were used. Alternatively, atomic energy, which is a matter <strong>of</strong> controversy at the present time, would be the ultimate resort. In general, almost all Arab countries located on the Mediterranean will be affected by climate change at different levels. Countries which are more dependant on rainfall will certainly be affected most. Other countries which are less dependant on rainfall will be less affected; however, water has to be made available for areas which are going to be indirectly affected due to their dependence on other water sources inside or outside the country. A problem common to all Arab countries located on the coast <strong>of</strong> the Mediterranean is the possibility <strong>of</strong> having coastal aquifers contaminated if the sea level is increased, particularly in low-lying areas because <strong>of</strong> sea water intrusion. Coastal aquifers are very fragile systems <strong>of</strong> fresh water lenses sitting above huge bodies <strong>of</strong> brackish water
82 CHAPTER 6 FRESH WATER <strong>of</strong> relatively high salinity. Overexploitation <strong>of</strong> fresh water lenses plus the expected intrusion <strong>of</strong> sea water in low-elevation areas will certainly affect the use <strong>of</strong> these aquifers and possibly lead to the pollution <strong>of</strong> soil as well. If parts <strong>of</strong> the lands parallel to the sea shore are inundated, then it will not only be groundwater that is going to be affected, the whole landscape will be changed with vast areas <strong>of</strong> land abandoned and large numbers <strong>of</strong> citizens displaced. Nile Basin The Nile Basin is composed <strong>of</strong> three main subbasins: • Equatorial Lakes sub-basin. • Ethiopian plateau sub-basin. • Bahr El Ghazal sub-basin. Precipitation on the Ethiopian Plateau comes in one season and takes around 100 to 110 days lasting from early June to mid-September. The sub-basin is marked with steep slopes which cause heavy storms to erode vast areas <strong>of</strong> land. In the Bahr El Ghazal sub-basin, land is fairly flat and precipitation is spread over large areas <strong>of</strong> swamps and marches occupied by wild animals and aquatic plantations. The Equatorial Lake plateau is flat as well; however, the Nile’s route allows water to flow downstream inside a regular channel. Both the Bahr El Ghazal and Equatorial Lakes sub-basins experience two rainy seasons, one <strong>of</strong> them is long (4-6 months) and the other is short (2-3 months). Research on the Nile Basin has proved that the river’s natural flow is very sensitive to precipitation which falls on the Ethiopian highlands. An increase <strong>of</strong> 20% in precipitation may increase the Nile’s natural flow at Aswan by 80%. Conversely, if precipitation is reduced by 20%, THE WATER EXPLOITATION INDEX (WEI) The Water Exploitation Index is a figure calculated by dividing annual total abstraction <strong>of</strong> fresh water by the long-term average freshwater resources. It is used as a measure <strong>of</strong> how sustainable a country’s use <strong>of</strong> fresh water resources is in light <strong>of</strong> water availability. Source: European Environment Agency the natural flow may fall to a mere 20% <strong>of</strong> the usual average. To a lesser extent, natural flow is also sensitive to temperature variation, particularly in the Equatorial Lakes and Bahr El Ghazal sub-basins. An increase <strong>of</strong> two degrees Celsius in temperature might cause the natural flow to fall to 50% <strong>of</strong> the average in these two sub-basins. These facts lead to the important conclusion that Egypt and Sudan are both extremely vulnerable to increased or decreased rainfall in the Nile Basin as well as to increased temperature levels. Both increased and reduced flows have negative effects on the two countries. If the natural flow is considerably increased, the storage capacity <strong>of</strong> both water systems might not be sufficient to accommodate these high flows which might cause destructive floods. Even if the storage capacity is adequate, as might be the case in Egypt, the conveyance and distribution network <strong>of</strong> canals and drains might not be sufficient. If the opposite happens, i.e. natural flows are substantially reduced, the two countries will face droughts that might not be tolerable. The application <strong>of</strong> Global Circulation Models on the Nile Basin flows resulted in variable figures over a very wide range. This uncertainty confirms the fact that regional or even local circulation models are needed. Unfortunately these types <strong>of</strong> models are not available at the present time. The only attempts cited are the series <strong>of</strong> studies carried out by an Egyptian team <strong>of</strong> experts to use the United Kingdom Meteorological Office Circulation Model (UKMO) to produce a regional model on the Nile Basin by downscaling using statistical and dynamic modelling. This process needs one to two years to be completed and the results would yield the highest accuracy possible using the best globally available techniques at the present time. Vulnerability <strong>of</strong> Water Resources in Turkey In an interesting study on one <strong>of</strong> the major river basins in Seyhan, Turkey, a team <strong>of</strong> Japanese scientists (Fujihara et al., 2008) explored the impact <strong>of</strong> climate change on the hydrology and water flows <strong>of</strong> the river. A dynamic downscaling method (pseudo Global Warming Method PGWM) was used to connect the outputs <strong>of</strong> two General Circulation Models (GCMs) namely:
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Arab Environment: Climate</
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE II
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE V
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE VI
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE IX
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XII INTRODUCTION A number o
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XIV INTRODUCTION nology cooperation
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XVI INTRODUCTION The respondents to
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XVIII INTRODUCTION activities based
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XX INTRODUCTION by climate change.
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XXII INTRODUCTION REGIONAL CLIMATE
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CHAPTER 1 1 Arab Public Opinion and
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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE 3
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CHAPTER 2 13 GHG Emissions: Mitigat
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CHAPTER 12 143 Interrelation betwee
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156 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CNA
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158 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS MENA
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