Impact of Climate Change on Arab Countries - (IPCC) - Working ...

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ARAB ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE VII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Arab Environment: <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Impact</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> on Arab Countries 2009 REPORT OF THE ARAB FORUM FOR ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT (AFED) The world is once again at a crossroads; as the scientific basis behind climate change is becoming more solid, the imperative for strong and collective action is becoming increasingly urgent. This urgency is one shared by all countries and regions <strong>of</strong> the world, as all will be affected. The Arab region is by no means an exception; in fact, given the very high vulnerability <strong>of</strong> Arab countries to the projected impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change, it cannot afford inaction on either the global, regional, or national scales. Based on the findings <strong>of</strong> the Intergovernmental Panel on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> (IPCC) and hundreds <strong>of</strong> references quoted in the 2009 Report <strong>of</strong> the Arab Forum for Environment and Development (AFED), we can categorically state that the Arab countries are in many ways among the most vulnerable in the world to the potential impacts <strong>of</strong> climate change, the most significant <strong>of</strong> which are increased average temperatures, less and more erratic precipitation, and sea level rise (SLR), in a region which already suffers from aridity, recurrent drought and water scarcity. Water resources are dwindling. Regardless <strong>of</strong> climate change, the already critical situation <strong>of</strong> water scarcity in the Arab world will reach severe levels by 2025. A report recently published in Japan has warned that what is known as the Fertile Crescent, spanning from Iraq and Syria to Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine, would lose all traits <strong>of</strong> fertility and might disappear before the end <strong>of</strong> the century because <strong>of</strong> deteriorating water supply from the major rivers. Man-made problems, mainly the widespread construction <strong>of</strong> dams and unsustainable irrigation practices which waste about half <strong>of</strong> the water resources, and rates <strong>of</strong> human water consumption which are well above international standards in some Arab countries, are making the situation worse. The expected effects <strong>of</strong> climate change are likely to exacerbate this deterioration. With continuing increases in temperatures, water flow in the Euphrates may decrease by 30% and that <strong>of</strong> the Jordan River by 80% before the turn <strong>of</strong> the century. If this is the case in the Fertile Crescent, how will the situation be in other arid Arab countries Water management is therefore an urgent issue. We need to improve efficiency, especially in irrigation, and to develop new water resources, including innovative desalination technologies. Sea level rise (SLR) is likewise a big risk, since the bulk <strong>of</strong> the Arab region's economic activity, agriculture and population centres are in the coastal zone, which is highly vulnerable to sea level rise. This can be in the form <strong>of</strong> both coastal region inundation and increasing salinity <strong>of</strong> soil and available freshwater resources such as aquifers.
VIII EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A simulation carried out for AFED by Boston University’s Center for Remote Sensing revealed that a sea level rise <strong>of</strong> only 1 metre would directly impact 41,500 km2 <strong>of</strong> the Arab coastal lands. The most serious impacts <strong>of</strong> sea level rise would be in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE. The effects on the region’s agricultural sector would mostly be felt in Egypt, where a 1 metre rise would put 12% <strong>of</strong> the country’s agricultural land at risk. It would also directly affect 3.2% <strong>of</strong> the population in the Arab countries, compared to a global percentage <strong>of</strong> about 1.28%. Human health would be adversely affected by higher temperatures, mainly due to changes in geographical ranges <strong>of</strong> disease vectors like mosquitoes, waterborne pathogens, water quality, air quality and food availability and quality. Incidence <strong>of</strong> infectious diseases like malaria and schistosomiasis will increase, mainly in Egypt, Morocco and Sudan. Malaria, which already infects 3 million people annually in the Arab region, will become more prevalent and enter new territories as higher temperatures reduce the incubation period, spread the range <strong>of</strong> malaria-bearing mosquitoes and increase their abundance. Higher CO2 concentrations and fiercer and more frequent sand storms in desert areas will increase allergic reactions and pulmonary diseases all over the region. Food production would face an increased threat, affecting basic human needs. Harsher and expanding aridity and changes in the spans <strong>of</strong> seasons may cut agricultural yields in half if no alternative measures are applied. Urgent adaptive measures are required, including changes in crop varieties, fertilizer and irrigation practices. Higher temperatures, lower rainfall and alteration in the span <strong>of</strong> seasons will require developing new varieties that can adapt to the emerging conditions. Crops which need less water and can withstand higher levels <strong>of</strong> salinity should be developed and introduced on a large scale. Tourism, an important sector <strong>of</strong> the economy for a number <strong>of</strong> Arab countries, is highly vulnerable to climate change. An increase <strong>of</strong> between 1-4°C in average temperature will cause a drastic decline in the index <strong>of</strong> tourism comfort all over the region. Areas classified between “good” and “excellent” are likely to become “marginal to “unfavourable” by the year 2080, mainly because <strong>of</strong> hotter summers, extreme weather events, water scarcity and ecosystems degradation. Bleaching <strong>of</strong> coral reefs will affect tourism in countries in the Red Sea basin, mainly Egypt and Jordan. Beach erosion and sea level rise will affect coastal tourist destinations, mainly in Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon, especially in locations where sandy beach stretches are narrow and buildings are close to the shoreline. Options for alternative tourism, which are less vulnerable to climatic variability, should be explored, such as cultural tourism. Countries with coastal areas highly vulnerable to sea level rise should develop alternative inland tourist destinations. Biodiversity in the Arab countries, already deteriorating, will be further damaged by intensifying climate change. A 2°C rise in temperature will make extinct up to 40% <strong>of</strong> all the species. The Arab countries have many unique formations that are especially vulnerable to climate change risk, such as the cedar forests in Lebanon and Syria, the mangroves in Qatar, the reed marshes <strong>of</strong> Iraq, the high mountain ranges <strong>of</strong> Yemen and Oman, and the coastal mountain ranges <strong>of</strong> the Red Sea.
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Page 12 and 13: XII INTRODUCTION A number o
Page 14 and 15: XIV INTRODUCTION nology cooperation
Page 16 and 17: XVI INTRODUCTION The respondents to
Page 18 and 19: XVIII INTRODUCTION activities based
Page 20 and 21: XX INTRODUCTION by climate change.
Page 22 and 23: XXII INTRODUCTION REGIONAL CLIMATE
Page 24 and 25: CHAPTER 1 1 Arab Public Opinion and
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Page 36 and 37: CHAPTER 2 13 GHG Emissions: Mitigat
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CHAPTER 4 47 Impact</strong
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CHAPTER 8 101 Impact</stron
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CHAPTER 9 113 Impact</stron
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CHAPTER 10 121 Impact</stro
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CHAPTER 11 129 International Negoti
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CHAPTER 12 143 Interrelation betwee
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156 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS CNA
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158 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS MENA
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