National Threat Assessment 2008. Organised Crime - Politie

have created more opportunities within business activities. Information can be
distributed at lightning speed on an unprecedented scale. However, apart from
legitimate uses, such distribution speeds also facilitate current criminal activities
and make new types of criminal misuse possible.
Finally, the differences in tax rates within the EU are also an important factor,
because as long as those differences exist, fraud will remain an attractive
possibility to earn large sums of money.
Expectations
One important characteristic of public purse fraud is that performance details
can be adjusted easily to changing circumstances. Between the 1980s and now,
for example, this fraud construction has been used for several types of fraud,
despite various measures to prevent its use. The results of this research provide
no reason to assume that the use of this fraud construction will decline in the
coming years. The opposite is more likely. The construction can be set up in an
increasingly complex manner, as more and more legal entities in more and more
countries become involved. As a result, the true nature of the various transactions
can be effectively concealed. This makes investigation and prosecution difficult
and, as a result, time-consuming and expensive, and partly dependent on chance.
The quality of the collaboration and information exchanged between different
countries, on which investigations are dependent, varies.
In the Netherlands the duty on alcohol, cigarettes and tobacco was increased
considerably in 2008. In 2009 this will be followed by the VAT on luxury goods
with an increase from 19% to 20%. These measures increase the price wedge,
thus making fraud more attractive, and the scale of fraud is therefore expected
to increase rather than decrease.
A number of developments are expected to encourage fraud. The roles of
Customs and the tax authorities are central in this regard. Due to the free
movement of goods within the European Union, there are no longer inspections
at the internal borders, as a result of which Customs now perform fewer
physical inspections. Customs is in the process of closing down various units
that used to perform physical inspections. A shift is underway towards more
administrative monitoring. In part due to technological developments, the
authorities can easily check whether everything registered in advance actually
reaches its destination. The basic principle of self-regulation is also used more
and more often. Requests for permits submitted by transport and forwarding
companies are nowadays checked less frequently. Furthermore, the inspections
are increasingly being taken over by the tax authorities. In the short term this
104 National Threat Assessment 2008 – Organised crime