National Threat Assessment 2008. Organised Crime - Politie

damage to buildings, etc. In one case a total of 45,000 euros in collateral
damage was caused in a single ram raid. Insurance companies indicate the
damage as relatively high amounts (on average 30,000 euros per ram raid)
as they add the financial loss and the material damage together. Apart from
the costs incurred for damage sustained, there are also the costs of preventive
measures. These can run fairly high, but no figures are available.
Ram raiding hardly ever involves a confrontation between offenders and victims.
However, these incidents may have an effect on the people in the surrounding
area, because they contribute to a feeling of not being safe.
4.6.6 Crime-related factors and expectations
Security measures
Security measures are an important crime-related factor. Better security against
robberies for retailers, for example, may reduce the scale of this criminal activity.
However, the level of security has a limit, as tighter security reduces the
accessibility of shops for customers. It is quite possible that improved security will
result in the offenders using different tactics. In Germany, for example, there
seems to be a shift from ram raids to robberies. Cases have been reported there
of robberies in broad daylight when large numbers of the general public were
outside in the street. Furthermore, it is also conceivable that a shift will occur
towards (simpler) offences such as burglaries or street robberies.
Economic developments in Eastern Europe
The combination of a prosperity gap and the generally increased mobility of
people in Eastern Europe is an economic ‘pull factor’. In Belgian research in
which offenders were interviewed, the majority of the interviewees confirmed
this motive.
As the EU intends to increase the number of EU Member States in the years to
come 57 , it can be assumed that people will start migrating from those countries
as well. A number of political developments are currently underway that do not
improve the political stability of the Balkans 58 . It is impossible to predict whether
this will result in an actual conflict. During the conflicts in the Balkans (1995-
1996 and 1999-2000) more crime was recorded in Belgium that could be
attributed to mobile gangs.
Immigration from Poland, Bulgaria and Romania increased in 2007. We are also
seeing increased immigration from (West) Africa. The temporary or permanent
57
Croatia and Macedonia will join the EU by 2012, Turkey probably in 2015.
58
The declaration of the independence of Kosovo, for example.
170 National Threat Assessment 2008 – Organised crime