Annual Meeting - SCEC.org

Draft 2012 Science Plan
2. Evaluate novel algorithms for earthquake simulation, particularly those that either improve efficiency and accuracy
or expand the class of problems that can be solved (e.g., adaptive mesh refinement).
3. Support optimization of earthquake simulators that can resolve the faulting processes across the range of scales
required to investigate stress-mediated fault interaction, generate synthetic seismicity catalogs, and assess the
viability of earthquake rupture forecasts.
4. Foster and help coordinate a research and development effort utilizing advanced techniques for addressing
accelerating technologies such as hybrid MPI/OpenMP, MPI/CUDA, PGAS, and auto-tuning; and preparing the
community for sea changes in architecture towards exascale computing.
5. Support development of a community model framework for managing I/O, data repositories, workflow and
management, analysis/visualization tools, reliability and resilience capabilities.
6. Identify and develop the necessary tools for data-intensive computing, including but not limited to 3D tomography,
cross-correlation algorithms used in ambient noise seismology, and other signal processing techniques used, for
example, to search for tectonic tremor.
7. Provide coordinated support to the community on large resource allocation proposals.
8. Participate in major CME projects.
Key Problems in Computational Science
1. Seismic wave propagation
• Validate SCEC community velocity models.
• Develop high-frequency simulation methods and investigate the upper frequency limit of deterministic ground
motions.
• Extend existing simulation methodologies to a set of stochastic wavefield simulation codes that can extend the
deterministic calculations to frequencies as high as 20 Hz, providing with the capability to synthesize
“broadband” seismograms.
2. Tomography
• Assimilate regional waveform data into the SCEC community velocity models.
3. Rupture dynamics
• Evaluate proposed fault weakening mechanisms in large-scale earthquake simulations, determine if small-scale
physics is essential or irrelevant, and determine if friction law parameters can be artificially enhanced without
compromising ground motion predictions.
• Evaluate different representations of source complexity, including stress heterogeneity, variability in frictional
properties, and fault geometrical complexity.
4. Scenario earthquake modeling
• Model a suite of scenario ruptures, incorporating material properties and fault geometries from the unified
structural representation projects.
• Isolate causes of enhanced ground motion using adjoint-based sensitivity methods.
5. Engineering applications
• Facilitate the “rupture-to-rafters” modeling capability to transform earthquake risk management into a CS&E
discipline.
112 | Southern California Earthquake Center