Annual Meeting - SCEC.org

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Poster Abstracts 252 m 252 a 252 i 252 n 252 s 252 h 252 o 252 c 252 k 252 - 252 a 252 f 252 t 252 e 252 r 252 s 252 h 252 o 252 c 252 k 252 252 o 252 r 252 252f252o252r252e252s252h252o252c252k252-252m252a252i252n252s252h252o252c252k252 252p252a252i252r252s252,252 252 a 252 r 252 e 252 252 i 252 n 252 252 f 252 a 252 c 252 t 252 252 c 252 o 252 r 252 r 252 e 252 c 252 t 252 l 252 y 252 252 i 252 d 252 e 252 n 252 t 252 i 252 f 252 i 252 e 252 d 252 252 a 252 n 252 d 252 252 n 252 o 252 t 252 252 m 252 i 252 s 252 a 252 t 252 t 252 r 252 i 252 b 252 u 252 t 252 e 252 d 252 , 252 252 u 252 n 252 r 252 e 252 l 252 a 252 t 252 e 252 d 252 252e252a252r252t252h252q252u252a252k252e252s252.252 252T252h252i252s252 252q252u252e252s252t252i252o252n252 252i252s252 252e252s252p252e252c252i252a252l252l252y252 252i252m252p252o252r252t252a252n252t252 252i252n252 252t252h252e252 252c252r252i252t252i252c252a252l252 252d252i252s252t252a252n252c252e252 252r252a252n252g252e252 252 o 252 f 252 252 s 252 e 252 v 252 e 252 r 252 a 252 l 252 252 t 252 o 252 252 t 252 e 252 n 252 s 252 252 o 252 f 252 252 e 252 a 252 r 252 t 252 h 252 q 252 u 252 a 252 k 252 e 252 252 r 252 a 252 d 252 i 252 i 252 , 252 252 o 252 v 252 e 252 r 252 252w 252h 252i 252c 252h 252 252s252t252a252t 252i252c 252 252s 252t 252r 252e 252s 252s 252e252s 252 252a 252r 252e 252 252t252h252o252u252g252h252t252 252t252o252 252b252e252 252t252o252o252 252s252m252a252l252l252 252t252o252 252 a 252 f 252 f 252 e 252 c 252 t 252 252 s 252 e 252 i 252 s 252 m 252 i 252 c 252 i 252 t 252 y 252 . 252 252 I 252 f 252 252 e 252 a 252 r 252 t 252 h 252 q 252 u 252 a 252 k 252 e 252 252 p 252 a 252 i 252 r 252 s 252 252 i 252 n 252 252 t 252 h 252 i 252 s 252 252 r 252 a 252 n 252 g 252 e 252 252 a 252 r 252 e 252 252 n 252 o 252 t 252 252 c 252 a 252 u 252 s 252 a 252 l 252 l 252 y 252 252r252e252l252a252t252e252d252,252 252t252h252e252n252 252t252h252e252 252h252i252s252t252o252g252r252a252m252 252o252f252 252f252o252r252e252s252h252o252c252k252-252m252a252i252n252s252h252o252c252k252 252a252n252d252 252m252a252i252n252s252h252o252c252k252-252a252f252t252e252r252s252h252o252c252k252 252p252a252i252r252s252 252 s 252 h 252 o 252 u 252 l 252 d 252 252 b 252 e 252 252 i 252 d 252 e 252 n 252 t 252 i 252 c 252 a 252 l 252 . 252 252P 252r252e252l252i252m252i252n252a 252r 252y 252 252r 252e 252s 252u252l252t252s252 252u252s252i252n 252g 252 252 s 252 o 252 u 252 t 252 h 252 e 252 r 252 n 252 252 C 252 a 252 l 252 i 252 f 252 o 252 r 252 n 252 i 252 a 252 252s252e252i252s252m252i252c252i252t252y252 252r252o252u252g252h252l252y252 252r252e252p INJECTING INFORMATION FROM STATIC COULOMB MODELS INTO STATISTICAL AFTERSHOCK MODELS FOR THE CANTERBURY, NEW ZEALAND, EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCE (B-101) C.A. Williams, M.C. Gerstenberger, and S. Steacy The Canterbury earthquake sequence began with the Mw 7.1 Darfield earthquake in September, 2010, and continues to the present. This event was followed by events in February, 2011 (Mw 6.3) and June, 2011 (Mw 6.0), causing severe damage to the city of Christchurch, where the level of seismic hazard was previously thought to be moderate. The occurrence of these events, as well as numerous smaller aftershocks, will obviously perturb the pre-existing stress field in this vicinity. We are exploring methods of estimating these stress changes and then using this information to revise existing statistical models of earthquake occurrence. The problem is made more difficult by the uncertainties involved in Coulomb stress calculations. These uncertainties involve both the source fault parameters (e.g., fault geometry and slip distribution) and target fault parameters (orientation, frictional properties, etc.). We address these problems by allowing the different parameters to vary, thus providing a suite of possible models. Using this suite of models, we can then compute the mean and variance of the computed Coulomb stresses and use this as the input for the modified statistical models. We use the estimated stress changes in two different ways. In the first approach, we use a rate and state model to forecast aftershock probabilities. In the second, we use a simplified approach that uses only the polarity of the stress changes to redistribute the forecasts from statistical aftershock models. Using these approaches, we plan to provide revised aftershock probabilities for the Canterbury region. TSUNAMI HAZARD MAPPING ACTIVITIES IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA (B-098) R. Wilson, K. Miller, C. Real, J. Goltz, and J. Treiman The California Geological Survey (CGS) and its partner agency in the state tsunami program, the California Emergency Management Agency (CalEMA), have completed a number of tsunami hazard mapping products and plan additional work in southern California over the next several years. Funded by the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP), CGS, CalEMA, and the University of Southern California – Tsunami Research Center completed work on 130 tsunami inundation maps for emergency response planning that cover all at-risk communities within the state (maps on www.tsunami.ca.gov). These maps are based on extreme, but realistic scenarios from forty local and distant sources, and cover all at-risk, populated areas along the coast, including over 90% of the southern California coast. New maps for Catalina Island will be completed within by the end of 2011. Additional tsunami hazard mapping activities by CGS and CalEMA include: 1) production of tsunami hazard zone maps for land-use planning under the 1990 Seismic Hazard Zonation Act; 2) production of tsunami current hazard maps and offshore 252 | Southern California Earthquake Center
Poster Abstracts safety zones for the maritime community; 3) completion of a tsunami deposit and tsunami source database; and, 4) formation of pre-tsunami field teams to observe and collect data during and after a tsunami. A pilot project for the land-use planning maps, which will require a probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis, has been initiated in the City of Huntington Beach. The maritime community maps, which will include in-harbor tsunami hazard maps and offshore safety zone, have also been initiated with likely “pilot” locations in Ventura Harbor, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, and San Diego Bay. The two tsunami databases for deposits and sources will be completed by 2012 to help evaluate existing tsunami hazard mapping products and guide future products for both emergency response and land-use planning. During and after the March 11, 2011 tsunami, which caused over $50-million in damage to two dozen harbors in the state, data collected by the pre- and posttsunami field team will also help evaluate the tsunami modeling and mapping methods used by the state, especially as they relate to strong tsunami currents within harbors. CORRELATION OF PEAK DYNAMIC AND STATIC COULOMB FAILURE STRESS WITH SEISMICITY RATE CHANGE AFTER THE M7.2 EL MAYOR-CUCAPAH EARTHQUAKE (B-102) K.B. Withers and K.B. Olsen We have investigated the relation between the April 4 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah earthquake and seismicity rate changes in southern California and northern Baja California in the months following the mainshock. Specifically, we use dynamic rupture models with observational constraints for the event simulated in the SCEC 3D CVM4.0 (Roten and Olsen, 2009) to calculate the resulting static (ΔCFS) and dynamic Coulomb failure stress changes, ΔCFS(t), parameterized by its largest positive amplitude (peak ΔCFS(t)). The seismicity rate changes are estimated using the Z-value (Haberman, 1983) using both undeclustered and declustered datasets (with a magnitude of completeness equal to 1.5), and show varying goodness of fit values with different time periods after the mainshock (ranging from a day to 1 year). We employ different methods to measure the correlation between the seismicity rate change and both ΔCFS and peak ΔCFS(t) in time and space, in order to estimate the most efficient triggering parameter for the aftershocks, including a ternary map comparison (as used by Kilb et. al, 2002) and crosscorrelation. We perform this analysis using both CVM-4 and CVM-H, investigating, in particular, which model better describes the increased seismicity NW of the rupture. We have rotated the stress changes onto focal mechanisms of several Mw5 aftershocks as well as onto optimum oriented planes (King, 1994). We find that increases in static stress changes closer to the fault can explain nearby aftershocks, while the triggering of those farther away are more likely attributed to dynamic stress changes, where static stress change is nearly zero. We attempted to define an estimate of potential threshold level of static and dynamic stress change required to trigger earthquakes/aftershocks of different magnitude, but thus far have found no definitive relation. THERMAL FLUID AND FAULT INTERACTIONS AT THE INTERSECTION OF TWO FAULTS, AGUA CALIENTE, CALIFORNIA (A-099) R.E. Wood and J.P. Evans Agua Caliente Springs lies at a unique intersection between the NNW-trending Elsinore fault and the 40° northeast-dipping, likely inactive West Salton detachment fault; it provides an opportunity to study damage zone geometry, fault behavior in crystalline rocks, a left-stepover, microseismicity, and the influence of thermal fluids on rock deformation. The Elsinore fault bounds the northwestern flank of the Tierra Blanca Mountains with strike-slip and normal motion; the detachment fault wraps around the northernmost portion of the mountains. Damage along the Elsinore ranges in thickness from a narrow slip plane to > 100 m along the eastern flank of the Tierra Blanca Mountains. Subsidiary faults trend northeast and southeast, and slip orientations vary from normal to strike-slip horizontal motion. Thermal fluids (~30°C) emerge at the intersection of the West Salton detachment and Elsinore faults actively alter the 94 Ma La Posta tonalite pluton, already fractured and crushed during fault slip, to a fine-grained white to orange powder through mineral re-equilibration. Grain sizes decrease with closer proximity to the faults. Fault cores contain thin dark green zones of chlorite ± epidote, and fault surfaces are coated with a thin layer of the same. Origin of the mineralization may be from reworked biotite crystals. We present water chemistry data from the hot springs at Agua Caliente in conjunction with geochemical and petrographic analysis of the surrounding rock. Water analyses include cation and anion measurements, bicarbonate, stable isotopes, tritium, and a multi-month recording of spring conductivity, water level, and temperature fluctuations. Cation geothermometry shows the fluids are enriched in Na, Ca, Mg, K, and Si from broken down quartz, plagioclase, and orthoclase. Water level and temperature data are compared to seismicity during the logging interval; temperatures so far have diurnal fluctuations indicating air temperature plays a larger role than anticipated for the subsurface fluids. Conductivity also displays daily cycles. We propose a larger scale map of the intersection of the two faults and the continuation of the Elsinore farther south showing the current extent and probable growth of the 2011 SCEC Annual Meeting | 253
Page 1 and 2:
38˚ 36˚ 34˚ 32˚ 38˚ 36˚ 34˚
Page 3 and 4:
Table of Contents Table of Contents
Page 5 and 6:
SCEC Annual Meeting Program Sunday,
Page 7 and 8:
15:15 Introduction to the Automatic
Page 9 and 10:
Monday, September 12th 07:00 - 08:0
Page 11 and 12:
MONDAY | Meeting Program observatio
Page 13 and 14:
TUESDAY | Meeting Program evolution
Page 15 and 16:
TUESDAY | Meeting Program 17:20 Dra
Page 17 and 18:
WEDNESDAY | Meeting Program seismic
Page 19 and 20:
SCEC DIrector | Report reviews, bot
Page 21 and 22:
SCEC DIrector | Report The current
Page 23 and 24:
SCEC DIrector | Report meetings to
Page 25 and 26:
A Word of Thanks Figure 4. This "Br
Page 27 and 28:
SCEC Advisory Council | Report Afte
Page 29 and 30:
SCEC Advisory Council | Report and
Page 31 and 32:
SCEC Advisory Council | Report 3. C
Page 33 and 34:
Input and reaction to the SCEC4 Pro
Page 35 and 36:
SCEC Advisory Council | Report meet
Page 37 and 38:
Communication, Education, and Outre
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
SCEC Research Accomplishments | Rep
Page 47 and 48:
Lett., Seismological Society of Ame
Page 49 and 50:
Funning et al. resurveyed 19 GPS si
Page 51 and 52:
earthquakes. They find that plastic
Page 53 and 54:
Earthquake Geology SCEC Research Ac
Page 55 and 56:
SCEC researchers are also attemptin
Page 57 and 58:
observed waveforms (after Olsen and
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
urial depth, long-term tectonic str
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66:
Page 67 and 68:
Figure 31. Image of the branching j
Page 69 and 70:
Page 71 and 72:
Page 73 and 74:
Workshops SCEC Research Accomplishm
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
Local-Scale Models CDM group resear
Page 79 and 80:
Page 81 and 82:
Figure 54. CLM splitting from mantl
Page 83 and 84:
Figure 59. The short-term rates aft
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
esponse peaks to the incident groun
Page 89 and 90:
Page 91 and 92:
Non-Linear Structural Simulations u
Page 93 and 94:
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
References SCEC Research Accomplish
Page 101 and 102:
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Draft 2012 Science Plan SCEC Planni
Page 107 and 108:
Draft 2012 Science Plan H. Award Pr
Page 109 and 110:
B. Proposals may be strengthened by
Page 111 and 112:
Draft 2012 Science Plan 2a. Improve
Page 113 and 114:
A. Seismology Draft 2012 Science Pl
Page 115 and 116:
Draft 2012 Science Plan • Quantif
Page 117 and 118:
IX. Interdisciplinary Focus Areas D
Page 119 and 120:
Draft 2012 Science Plan E. Developm
Page 121 and 122:
Draft 2012 Science Plan objectives
Page 123 and 124:
Draft 2012 Science Plan relax segme
Page 125 and 126:
D. National Partnerships through Ea
Page 127 and 128:
A-024 VISUALIZING STRUCTURAL RESPON
Page 129 and 130:
A-137 DISCOVERING THE GEOMORPHIC RE
Page 131 and 132:
A-103 IMPACTS OF STATIC AND DYNAMIC
Page 133 and 134:
A-072 ANALYZING BUILDING RESPONSE T
Page 135 and 136:
B-147 INCORPORATING GPS VELOCITIES
Page 137 and 138:
INHIBITION OF VERY STRONG SHAKING,
Page 139 and 140:
B-030 EARTHQUAKE CLUSTERING AND AFT
Page 141 and 142:
B-127 SEISMOGRAM-BASED ASSESSMENT O
Page 143 and 144:
Poster Abstracts New paleoseismolog
Page 145 and 146:
Poster Abstracts ground motion depe
Page 147 and 148:
Poster Abstracts this delay becomes
Page 149 and 150:
Poster Abstracts time series analys
Page 151 and 152:
Poster Abstracts of a ‘weight vec
Page 153 and 154:
Perris2: .17, .16, .20, .23 Poster
Page 155 and 156:
Poster Abstracts amplitude with the
Page 157 and 158:
Poster Abstracts COMPARISON OF CO-L
Page 159 and 160:
Poster Abstracts found at other sta
Page 161 and 162:
Poster Abstracts This poster will p
Page 163 and 164:
Poster Abstracts Previous models of
Page 165 and 166:
Poster Abstracts of surface deforma
Page 167 and 168:
ADDITIONAL SHEAR RESISTANCE FROM FA
Page 169 and 170:
Poster Abstracts Seismic data were
Page 171 and 172:
Poster Abstracts providing omega-sq
Page 173 and 174:
Poster Abstracts understanding the
Page 175 and 176:
Poster Abstracts Although substanti
Page 177 and 178:
Poster Abstracts We will present th
Page 179 and 180:
E.H. Hearn, F.F. Pollitz, W.R. That
Page 181 and 182:
S. Hiemer, Q. Wang, D.D. Jackson, Y
Page 183 and 184:
Poster Abstracts STRONG GROUND MOTI
Page 185 and 186:
Poster Abstracts incorporated as ad
Page 187 and 188:
Poster Abstracts velocity model in
Page 189 and 190:
Poster Abstracts InSAR results base
Page 191 and 192:
Poster Abstracts We have observed h
Page 193 and 194:
Poster Abstracts near the rupture f
Page 195 and 196:
Poster Abstracts CRUSTAL STRUCTURE
Page 197 and 198:
Poster Abstracts volume from the RG
Page 199 and 200:
Poster Abstracts individuals (30%),
Page 201 and 202:
Poster Abstracts and Northridge Hil
Page 203 and 204:
Poster Abstracts In an emergent vie
Page 205 and 206: Poster Abstracts analysis into a ge
Page 207 and 208: Poster Abstracts silts and sands. T
Page 209 and 210: Poster Abstracts Pegasus WMS provid
Page 211 and 212: Poster Abstracts THE 2011 MW 9 TOHO
Page 213 and 214: Poster Abstracts has proved to be a
Page 215 and 216: Poster Abstracts Preliminary result
Page 217 and 218: Poster Abstracts Comparison of this
Page 219 and 220: Poster Abstracts DYNAMIC RUPTURE SI
Page 221 and 222: Poster Abstracts between our two me
Page 223 and 224: Poster Abstracts 3.0 sec). In the w
Page 225 and 226: Poster Abstracts distance from past
Page 227 and 228: Poster Abstracts colonies would be
Page 229 and 230: Poster Abstracts SPACE GEODETIC INV
Page 231 and 232: Poster Abstracts and 1857. Individu
Page 233 and 234: ADVANCEMENTS IN PROBABILISTIC SEISM
Page 235 and 236: CONSTANT STRESS DROP FITS EARTHQUAK
Page 237 and 238: Poster Abstracts 233 e 233 a 233 r
Page 239 and 240: Poster Abstracts mainshock, but the
Page 241 and 242: Poster Abstracts PLATE TECTONICS: A
Page 243 and 244: Poster Abstracts THE MECHANICS OF E
Page 245 and 246: Poster Abstracts 241 C 241 a 241 l
Page 247 and 248: Poster Abstracts Geodetic and geolo
Page 249 and 250: COMPARISONS AMONG EARTHQUAKE SIMULA
Page 251 and 252: Poster Abstracts compaction of a di
Page 253 and 254: Poster Abstracts installed and tele
Page 255: Poster Abstracts are adopted for up
Page 259 and 260: Z. Xu and P. Chen Poster Abstracts
Page 261 and 262: Poster Abstracts The Whittier fault
Page 263 and 264: Poster Abstracts SAF have had a maj
Page 265 and 266: Poster Abstracts ground motions whi
Page 267 and 268: FREYMUELLER Jeffrey, U Alaska Fairb
Page 269 and 270: RUIZ Ricardo, Chaffey HS RUNDLE Joh
show all

Annual Meeting - SCEC.org

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?