Annual Meeting - SCEC.org

Poster Abstracts
D. Schorlemmer, J.D. Zechar, M.J. Werner, M.C. Gerstenberger, and D.A. Rhoades
One of the primary objectives of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) working group was to formalize
earthquake occurrence hypotheses in the form of prospective earthquake rate forecasts for California. RELM scientists
developed more than a dozen time-invariant five-year forecasts for the period 1 January 2006-1 January 2011; they also
outlined a performance evaluation method and provided a conceptual description of a Testing Center in which to perform this
forecast experiments. Subsequently, researchers working within the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability
(CSEP) have begun implementing Testing Centers in different locations worldwide, and the RELM forecast experiment-a truly
prospective earthquake prediction effort-was conducted within the U.S. branch of CSEP. The experiment, designed to
compare this set of forecasts is now complete. Here, we present the forecasts under evaluation and the results of this
experiment. We also evaluate the sample of observed target earthquakes in the context of historical seismicity within the
testing region. Finally, we discuss the implications of the results for California hazard assessment and for further experiments.
228 | Southern California Earthquake Center