A4 für Copyshop GB.indd - Bayerische Landesbank

Outlook
The forecasts relating to the future performance of the BayernLB Group are estimates
that BayernLB arrived at using all the information available at the time when the report
on the Bank and the Group was drawn up. If the assumptions underlying our forecasts
prove incorrect, the actual results may differ from those currently anticipated.
Global economic forecast
The economic outlook for 2005 inspires only a limited degree of confidence. A self-sus-
taining upward trend is not yet in sight for Germany. During 2005, oil prices must gra-
dually come back down if expansionary global trade is to continue: acceptable econo-
mic growth in Germany depends not least on the latter. Only if this happens will the
depressing factors afflicting the global economy be held in check. This applies equally
to the development of the euro exchange rate. Another strong revaluation of the euro
would take a serious toll, especially on the German economy, which is heavily depen-
dent on foreign trade. Furthermore, volatile currency markets necessarily affect the
development of the capital markets. If oil prices remain high, there would be negative
repercussions for both bond and equity markets.
The following factors are also likely to affect BayernLB’s performance in the 2005 finan-
cial year:
Legal outlook
US veterans of the first Gulf War (in 1991) filed a lawsuit in September 2003 in the Uni-
ted States against a dozen industrial corporations (mostly from the chemicals sector)
as well as about 30 European and Asian banks, among them BayernLB. The plaintiffs
claim they have suffered bodily damage from chemicals illegally supplied to the former
Iraqi regime by these industrial corporations and that the delivery was financed – also
illegally – by the banks in question. Together with various other banks, BayernLB has
commissioned a renowned American law firm to protect its interests. In concurrence
with this firm, BayernLB continues to consider this charge unfounded. The Bank, toge-
ther with all of the other banks in question has thus filed a motion to dismiss, with
a view to obtaining a summary judgement in favour of the banks. This would avoid a
long-drawn-out case. At the moment we are not in a position to make a statement
regarding the decision on this motion.
Report on the Bank and the Group
103
} Gulf War veterans’
class action