Ninth International Conference on Permafrost ... - IARC Research

Permafrost Response to Dynamics of External Heat Exchange: Comparison ofObserved and Modeled Data (Nadym-Pur-Taz Region)Julia UkhovaInstitute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaAlexey OsokinNadymGazProm, Nadym, RussiaDmitry SergeevInstitute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaJulia StanilovskayaInstitute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaIntroductionThe study of thermal state permafrost dynamics inconnection with climate conditions has became topical inrecent years.Besides the air temperature, the amount of precipitation andthe temperature of permafrost have increased in some areassince the 1960s (Israel et al. 2006, Pavlov et al. 2005). Theproblem of permafrost state forecast became significant forindustrial companies. It requires the organizing of temperaturepermafrost monitoring. Most measured boreholes are locatednear industrial and civic constructions that disturb the groundtemperature regime dynamics. It is difficult to consider theclimatic role in permafrost temperature dynamics by usingthis data because the influence of construction and businessactivities is greatly powerful in local aspect. This problemimpedes efficient permafrost forecasting because of thedifficulty of model accuracy estimation.MethodsThe authors used mathematical modeling for the diagnosisof the man-caused disturbances factor that influences thepermafrost temperature regime. We supposed that thecodirectionality of modeled and observed temperaturetrends at low depths proves the weakness of anthropogenicinfluences in a short time period.The forecast was done for the Nadym-Pyr-Taz region whereclimate warming is evident. The air temperatures have beenincreasing 0.05°С per year in the observed period 1960–1995.We modeled the ground temperature for a one-dimensionalsystem, using the one-layer loamy silt configuration andobserved mean monthly values of air temperature and snowcover depth (Fig. 1). We used the meteorological data fromthe Salekhard met-station, adding constant monthly averagecorrections in considering microclimatic features of theinvestigation site. Other climate characteristics were used aslong-term average monthly values.0.60Ground temperature Snow depth, m0.40.20-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004-1-2-3-4-5-6-7Air temperature, centigrade-1-8-1.2-9-1.4-1 0ground temperature at 9 meters depth snow depth air temperature, centigradeFigure 1. Long-term course of climate characteristics (air temperature and thickness of snow cover) and calculated ground temperature at 9m depth.321