Ninth International Conference on Permafrost ... - IARC Research

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Impact of Frozen Ground Change on Streamflow Hydrology Over the LenaWatershed in Siberia: A Preliminary AnalysisDaqing Yang, Ipshita Majhi, Doug KaneWater and Environmental Research Center, University of Alaska FairbanksTingjun ZhangNational Snow and Ice Data Center, University of ColoradoPermafrost limits the amount of subsurface water storageand infiltration that can occur, leading to wet soils andponded surface waters, unusual for a region with such limitedprecipitation. Changes in climatic conditions significantlyaffect the thermal regimes of active layer and permafrost(Pavlov 1994, Kane 1997, Frauenfeld et al. 2004, Zhang et al.2005). Warming of high latitude regions results in an increaseof active layer and permafrost temperatures, a deeper activelayer and talik development, lateral thawing of permafrost indiscontinuous and sporadic permafrost regions, and finallynorthward movement of the permafrost boundaries (Serrezeet al. 2000, Woo 1986, Zhang et al. 2005).Studies show that near-surface permafrost temperature innorthern Russia has increased by 0.6–0.7°C during the period1970–1990 owing to higher air temperature and deepersnow cover over Siberia (Pavlov 1994). In some regions ofSiberia, permafrost temperature has warmed more than 2°C(Zhang et al. 2005, Pavlov 1996), active layer thickness hasincreased by up to 20 to 30 cm, and talik over permafrostmay have developed over the past several decades. It hasbeen predicted that, under a moderate climatic warmingscenario, changes in permafrost temperature and activelayer thickness will become more significant in the next fewdecades in the Russian Arctic and Subarctic (Pavlov 1996,Lawrence & Slater 2005, Saito et al. 2007).Changes in timing, duration, and thickness of seasonalfreeze and thaw, talik development, and permafrostconditions have a significant impact on surface runoffand ground hydrology. Changes in active layer thicknessdirectly affect groundwater storage and river dischargethrough partitioning surface runoff (Kane 1997). A deeperactive layer delays the freeze-up dates of the active layerand allows drainage to occur later in the winter. Analysisof soil moisture data in the upper (1 m) layer in the formerSoviet Union over recent decades reveals a long-termincreasing trend of soil moisture north of 50°N, mainlydue to precipitation increases of 10–30 mm every 10 years(Vinikov & Yeserkepova 1991). Observation records showthat the absolute amount of water content increases 10–30mm in the 1 m soil layer, and groundwater level rose by 50–100 cm in Siberia. This increased groundwater storage mayresult in underground water recharge to the river system, andconsequently, a significant increase of runoff in the wintermonths.Recent assessments of the large rivers in the Arctic(i.e., the Lena, Ob, and Yenisei—drainage areas between2,400,000 and 3,000,000 km 2 , and contributing more than45% of the total freshwater inflow to the Arctic Ocean)identify significant changes in streamflow seasonal cycle(Yang et al. 2002, 2004a,b, Ye et al. 2003). For example,since the mid-1930s, the Lena River summer runoff hasnot changed significantly, but winter runoff has increased25–80%. In the Yenisei River basin, summer runoff hasdecreased by 20–30%, and winter discharge has gone upby 35–110%. The Ob River has also experienced a winterrunoff increase of 30–40%, and summer runoff has risen inJuly by 10%. Base (low) flow increases have been reportedover Siberian regions and watersheds. This may indicatehydrologic response to climate and permafrost changes. Thelinkage between streamflow and permafrost changes is notwell understood.This study applies comprehensive statistical methodsto examine the linkage between frozen ground and riverstreamflow changes. Statistical analyses include thecombinations of multiple-correlation, stepwise regression,and linear correlation and regression techniques. Thesemethods have been applied to data of river streamflow,temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and active layerdepth. This allows us to establish statistical relationshipsuseful for identifying important climatic and permafrostfactors to regional streamflow changes. Further, it helpsto quantify lengths of memory of different variables(temperature, precipitation, snow cover, etc.) and theirimpact on interannual variation of river discharge.More specifically, this study examines the relation amongground temperature, active layer depth and base flowchanges. The focus of the analysis is placed on the regions/basins with significant changes, such as the Aldan tributary inthe upper Lena basin, where ground temperatures and winterflows have increased significantly in the last 40–50 years.The results of this work are useful in assessing the impact ofpermafrost changes on long-term streamflow variations overlarge watersheds, and they improve our understanding of theprocesses and interactions among climate, permafrost, andhydrology systems in the arctic regions.ReferencesFrauenfeld, O., Zhang, T., Barry, R.G. & Gilichinsky, D.G.2004. Interdecadal changes in seasonal freeze andthaw depths in Russia. J. Geophys. Res. 109: D05101,doi:10.1029/2003JD004245.Kane, D.L. 1997. The impact of Arctic hydrologicperturbations on Arctic ecosystems induced byclimate change. In: W.C. Oechel (ed.), Global Changeand Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems. Springer-VerlagEcological Studies 124, 63-81.355
Ni n t h In t e r n at i o n a l Co n f e r e n c e o n Pe r m a f r o s tLawrence, D.M. & Slater, A.G. 2005. A projection ofsevere near-surface permafrost degradation duringthe 21 st century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L24401,doi:10.1029/2005GL025080.Pavlov, A.V. 1994. Current change of climate and permafrostin the Arctic and Subarctic of Russia. Permafrost andPeriglacial Processes 5: 101-110.Saito, K., Kimoto, M., Zhang, T., Takata, K. & Emori, S. 2007.Changes in hydro-thermal regimes in frozen groundregions under global warming scenarios simulatedby a high-resolution climate model. J. Geophys. Res.112: F02S11, doi:10.1029/2006JF000577.Serreze, M.C, Walsh, J.E., Chapin, E.C, Osterkamp, T.,Dyugerov, M., Romanovsky, V., Oechel, W.C.,Morison, J., Zhang, T. & Barry, R.G. 2000.Observation evidence of recent change in the northernhigh-latitude environment. Climate Change 46: 159-207.Vinnikov, K.Ya. & Yeserkepova, I.B. 1991. Soil moisture:empirical data and model results. J. Climate 4: 66-79.Woo, M.-K. 1986. Permafrost hydrology in North America.Atmosphere-Ocean 24(3): 201-234.Yang, D., Ye, B. & Shiklomanov, A. 2004. Streamflowcharacteristics and changes over the Ob riverwatershed in Siberia. J. of Hydrometeorology 5(4):69-84.Yang, D., Ye, B. & Kane, D. 2004. Streamflow changes overSiberian Yenisei river basin. J. of Hydrology 5(4): 69-84.Yang, D., Kane, D., Hinzman, L., Zhang, X., Zhang, T. &Ye, H. 2002. Siberian Lena river hydrologic regimeand recent change. J. Geophys. Res. 107(D23): 4694,doi:10.1029/2002JD002542.Ye, B., Yang, D. & Kane, D. 2003. Changes in Lena riverstreamflow hydrology: human impacts vs. naturalvariations. Water Resources Research 39(8): 1200,doi: .10.1029/2003WR001991Zhang, T. 2005. Influence of the seasonal snowcover on the ground thermal regime: Anoverview. Reviews of Geophysics 43: RG4002,doi:10.1029/2004RG000157.Zhang, T., Frauenfeld, O.W., Serreze, M.D., Etringer, A.,Oelke, C., McCreight, J., Barry, R.G., Gilichinsky, D.,Yang, D., Ye, H., Ling, F. & Chudinova, S. 2005. Spatialand temporal variability of active layer thickness overthe Russian Arctic drainage basin. J. Geophys. Res.110: D16101, doi:10.1029/2004JD005642.356
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ContentsPreface ...................
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Mapping and Modeling the Distributi
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Satellite Observations of Frozen Gr
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xiiIce Wedge Thermal Regime in Nort
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xivPermafrost Response to Dynamics
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xvi
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NICOP SponsorsUniversitiesUniversit
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Deep Permafrost Studies at the Lupi
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Effect of Fire on Pond Dynamics in
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Cryological Status of Russian Soils
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Acoustical Surveys of Methane Plume
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Permafrost Delineation Near Fairban
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Preparatory Work for a Permanent Ge
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A Provisional Soil Map of the Trans
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Martian Permafrost Depths from Orbi
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Time Series Analyses of Active Micr
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Impact of Permafrost Degradation on
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DC Resistivity Soundings Across a P
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Modeling Thermal and Moisture Regim
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A Provisional Permafrost Map of the
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Alpine Permafrost Distribution at M
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Cryogenic Formations of the Caucasu
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Modeling Potential Climatic Change
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A Hypothesis: A Condition of Growth
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Modeled Continual Surface Water Sto
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Freeze/Thaw Properties of Tundra So
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Discontinuous Permafrost Distributi
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Thermal Regime Within an Arctic Was
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Seasonal and Interannual Variabilit
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Twelve-Year Thaw Progression Data f
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Continued Permafrost Warming in Nor
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Landsliding Following Forest Fire o
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A Permafrost Model Incorporating Dy
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Seasonal Sources of Soil Respiratio
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Greenland Permafrost Temperature Si
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The Importance of Snow Cover Evolut
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The Account of Long-Term Air Temper
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The Combined Isotopic Analysis of L
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Adaptating and Managing Nunavik’s
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Human Experience of Cryospheric Cha
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HiRISE Observations of Fractured Mo
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A Soil Freeze-Thaw Model Through th
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Mapping and Modeling the Distributi
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First Results of Ground Surface Tem
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Historical Changes in the Seasonall
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Rock Glaciers in the Kåfjord Area,
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Snowpack Evolution on Permafrost, N
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Climate Change in Permafrost Region
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Maximizing Construction Season in a
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Pleistocene Sand-Wedge, Composite-W
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