Ninth International Conference on Permafrost ... - IARC Research

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Permafrost Response to Dynamics of External Heat Exchange: Comparison ofObserved and Modeled Data (Nadym-Pur-Taz Region)Julia UkhovaInstitute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaAlexey OsokinNadymGazProm, Nadym, RussiaDmitry SergeevInstitute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaJulia StanilovskayaInstitute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, RussiaIntroductionThe study of thermal state permafrost dynamics inconnection with climate conditions has became topical inrecent years.Besides the air temperature, the amount of precipitation andthe temperature of permafrost have increased in some areassince the 1960s (Israel et al. 2006, Pavlov et al. 2005). Theproblem of permafrost state forecast became significant forindustrial companies. It requires the organizing of temperaturepermafrost monitoring. Most measured boreholes are locatednear industrial and civic constructions that disturb the groundtemperature regime dynamics. It is difficult to consider theclimatic role in permafrost temperature dynamics by usingthis data because the influence of construction and businessactivities is greatly powerful in local aspect. This problemimpedes efficient permafrost forecasting because of thedifficulty of model accuracy estimation.MethodsThe authors used mathematical modeling for the diagnosisof the man-caused disturbances factor that influences thepermafrost temperature regime. We supposed that thecodirectionality of modeled and observed temperaturetrends at low depths proves the weakness of anthropogenicinfluences in a short time period.The forecast was done for the Nadym-Pyr-Taz region whereclimate warming is evident. The air temperatures have beenincreasing 0.05°С per year in the observed period 1960–1995.We modeled the ground temperature for a one-dimensionalsystem, using the one-layer loamy silt configuration andobserved mean monthly values of air temperature and snowcover depth (Fig. 1). We used the meteorological data fromthe Salekhard met-station, adding constant monthly averagecorrections in considering microclimatic features of theinvestigation site. Other climate characteristics were used aslong-term average monthly values.0.60Ground temperature Snow depth, m0.40.20-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8197819791980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004-1-2-3-4-5-6-7Air temperature, centigrade-1-8-1.2-9-1.4-1 0ground temperature at 9 meters depth snow depth air temperature, centigradeFigure 1. Long-term course of climate characteristics (air temperature and thickness of snow cover) and calculated ground temperature at 9m depth.321
Ni n t h In t e r n at i o n a l Co n f e r e n c e o n Pe r m a f r o s t0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8-1-1.21999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004-1.4calculated ground temperature at 9 meters depth measured ground temperature in boring 9measured ground temperature in boring 94Figure 2. Comparison of measured and modeled ground temperature at 9 m depth.The mathematical realization of the model was determinedby G.S. Tipenko. The calculated values of ground temperatureat 9 m depth was obtained and compared with the climatetrend.ResultsThe course of the modeled ground temperature isconformable to the measured temperature trend in boreholes#9 and #94.We supposed that boreholes #9 and #94 are locatedin undisturbed conditions in the industrial area. Thedisagreement in the absolute value of the ground temperaturein these boreholes is determined by the variability of snowcover. The data in detail of snow cover are not available;however, the interannual course of ground temperature at lowdepths is probably defined by climate dynamics, especiallyby the snow cover trend.It is seen that the course of snow cover dynamics inlong-range aspect has a stronger influence on groundtemperature at low depth when compared with the course ofair temperature.To generalize, the framed and calibrated model of dynamicground temperature allowed us to forecast the permafrostdynamics, depending not only on air temperature changebut also on other factors of surface heat exchange. Themodel calibration criterion was the agreement fact of thetrends rather than the desired accuracy of model parameter.Comparing the model of boreholes in undisturbed anddisturbed conditions, the influence of technogenesis cannotbe allowed. Thus, the data of climate contribution in thedynamics of permafrost temperature can be obtained. Theboreholes that have the different tendency are stronglyinfluenced by building and other man-caused factors.ReferencesIsrael, J.A., Pavlov, A.V., Anokhin, J.A., Myach, L.T. &Chertyukov, B.G. 2006. Statistical estimation ofclimate components change in permafrost area inRussia. Meteorology and Hydrology 5: 27-38 (inRussian).Pavlov, A.V. 2002. Century anomalies of the air temperatureon the Russian North. Earth Cryosphere 6(2): 75–81(in Russian).Pavlov, A.V. & Malkova, G.V. 2005. Actual Climate Changeon the Russian North: Album of Low-Scale Maps.Novosibirsk: GEO, 54 (in Russian).322
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ContentsPreface ...................
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Mapping and Modeling the Distributi
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Satellite Observations of Frozen Gr
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xiiIce Wedge Thermal Regime in Nort
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xivPermafrost Response to Dynamics
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xvi
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NICOP SponsorsUniversitiesUniversit
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Deep Permafrost Studies at the Lupi
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Effect of Fire on Pond Dynamics in
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Cryological Status of Russian Soils
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Acoustical Surveys of Methane Plume
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Permafrost Delineation Near Fairban
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Preparatory Work for a Permanent Ge
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A Provisional Soil Map of the Trans
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Martian Permafrost Depths from Orbi
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Time Series Analyses of Active Micr
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Impact of Permafrost Degradation on
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DC Resistivity Soundings Across a P
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Modeling Thermal and Moisture Regim
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A Provisional Permafrost Map of the
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Alpine Permafrost Distribution at M
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Cryogenic Formations of the Caucasu
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Modeling Potential Climatic Change
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A Hypothesis: A Condition of Growth
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Modeled Continual Surface Water Sto
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Freeze/Thaw Properties of Tundra So
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Discontinuous Permafrost Distributi
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Thermal Regime Within an Arctic Was
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Seasonal and Interannual Variabilit
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Twelve-Year Thaw Progression Data f
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Continued Permafrost Warming in Nor
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Landsliding Following Forest Fire o
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A Permafrost Model Incorporating Dy
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Seasonal Sources of Soil Respiratio
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Greenland Permafrost Temperature Si
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The Importance of Snow Cover Evolut
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The Account of Long-Term Air Temper
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The Combined Isotopic Analysis of L
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Adaptating and Managing Nunavik’s
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Human Experience of Cryospheric Cha
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HiRISE Observations of Fractured Mo
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A Soil Freeze-Thaw Model Through th
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Mapping and Modeling the Distributi
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First Results of Ground Surface Tem
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Historical Changes in the Seasonall
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Rock Glaciers in the Kåfjord Area,
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Snowpack Evolution on Permafrost, N
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Climate Change in Permafrost Region
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Maximizing Construction Season in a
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Pleistocene Sand-Wedge, Composite-W
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