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Chapter 5 | Projections of passenger movements on regional air routesTable 5.4Intrastate: regional air routes with projected stagnant trendsin passenger movements, by state and territory, 2005 to 2016(continued)State Airport 1 Airport class 1 Airport 2 Airport class 2TAS Flinders Island Small Launceston LargeDevonport Medium Burnie MediumHobart Large Burnie MediumCape Barren Island Rural Launceston LargeVIC Melbourne Large Portland SmallHamilton Rural Warrnambool SmallMelbourne Large Mount Hotham RuralWA Cocos Island Small Christmas Island SmallPerth Large Wiluna RuralLaverton Rural Perth LargeBroome Large Learmonth SmallLeinster Rural Leonora RuralEsperance Small Kalgoorlie LargeKarratha Large Newman MediumSource: BITRE time series estimates.5.5 Concluding observationsThe projections are useful in providing an additional strand in policy developmentrelated to regional aviation. The information can play a useful role in informingdecisions about which segments of the market are facing challenges in retainingcommercial air services. With the indicative directions for passenger movements onregional air routes, future trends can be shaped by different policy choices.The projected results presented in this chapter are entirely based on past trends.They illustrate a future that anticipates no changes or discrepancies from the past. Thereality is unlikely to be as simple. There are many uncertainties which may cause futuretrends to deviate from the past. Changes in economic conditions may significantlychange travel behaviour and therefore the course of trends in different segments ofregional air routes. Strategic behaviour by airlines may also impact on the short orlong-term pattern of passenger movements on regional air routes. Continuing policydevelopment will also affect the future trends in passenger movements betweenregional airports. The extrapolative method used for the projections does notattempt to explain factors behind the projected trends. Any differing patterns in keydeterminants of air travel on regional air routes will inevitably alter the projections.Bearing these caveats in mind, a summary of general findings on the projectionof passenger movements on regional air routes in Australia from 2005 to 2016 is asfollows:• Interstate regional air routes: With the exception of Queensland and Tasmania,passenger movements in most states and territories are projected to grow at anaverage annual growth rate of 3 per cent to 4 per cent between 2005 and 2016.Queensland is projected to see an average annual growth rate of 5.3 per cent,while Tasmania is projected to see a lower average annual growth rate of 2.5 percent in passenger movements on interstate regional air routes.159