The Army Training System - AskTOP

FM 100-14experience, and judgment. Uncertainty can arise in the assessment ofboth the probability and severity of a hazardous incident. Uncertaintyresults from unknowns about a situation; from incomplete, inaccurate,undependable, or contradictory information; and from unforeseencircumstances. Therefore, assessment of risk requires good judgment.Figure 2-4 is a standardized matrix that can be used to assist in thisprocess. Leaders and staffs enter the estimated degree of severity andprobability for each hazard in Substeps A and B from the severity rowand probability column, respectively. The point where the severityrow and probability column intersect defines the level of risk. Forexample, if the hazard is estimated to have a critical severity (II) and alikely probability (B), the level of risk is high (H).Figure 2-5 provides a summary of the levels of risk. It alsoprovides examples of hazardous incidents for each risk level. Severalexamples illustrate the trade-off between tactical and accident risks.Risk Assessment MatrixProbabilitySeverityFrequentALikelyBOccasionalCSeldomDUnlikelyECatastrophicIEEHHMCriticalIIEHHMLMarginalIIIHMMLLNegligibleIVMLLLLE – Extremely High RiskH – High RiskM – Moderate RiskL – Low RiskFigure 2-4. Risk Assessment Matrix2-11