Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014

266 Third IMO GHG Study 2014
LNG market, are rapidly evolving and highly uncertain future markets, making it difficult to draw conclusions
from developments in the past. Even if a clear historical trend can be established, the question remains as to
whether the trend will last or come to a halt.
In the following, the derivation of the 2050 ship size distribution for the main ship types is presented. Table 35
presents an overview of the methodology that has been applied per ship type. The choice for the first or the
second methodology (as illustrated in Figure 41) is solely based on data availability.
Table 35 – Methodology applied for the projection of ship size distribution
of the different ship types differentiated in the study
Ship type
Container
Bulk carrier
Oil tanker
Liquefied gas tanker
Chemical tanker
All other ship types
Methodology
Second methodology
First methodology
First methodology
Second methodology
Same development is applied as derived for oil tankers
Distribution of the ships over the size categories in terms of the share of the capacity is
assumed not to change
Container ships
For container ships, we derive the number of ships per size category, applying the second methodology (see
Figure 41).
The starting point of the analysis is the 2012 distribution of the container ships over the size categories, as
determined in the emissions inventory (see Table 36).
Table 36 – 2012 distribution of container ships over the size categories
in terms of numbers
Size category
Distribution of ships in terms of numbers
0–999 TEU 22%
1,000–1,999 TEU 25%
2,000–2,999 TEU 14%
3,000–4,999 TEU 19%
5,000–7,999 TEU 11%
8,000–11,999 TEU 7%
12,000–14,500 TEU 2%
14,500–+ TEU 0.2%
In Figure 42, the development of the distribution of ships of the cellular fleet over the size categories is given
for the period 1996–2014.