Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014

276 Third IMO GHG Study 2014
Size categories (m 3 )
differentiated in study
Table 43 – Development of distribution of global LNG fleet
over size categories in terms of numbers
Distribution in 2012 Development until 2050 Distribution in 2050
0–49,000 7% No change 7%
50,000–199,999 81% Shift due to expansion of
90%
>200,000 12%
Panama Canal
3%
While the size of LNG carriers can vary significantly between different ship types, on average a historical trend
towards larger capacities can be observed (see Figure 47). The average size of LNG carriers rapidly increased
in the 1970s from about 80,000 m 3 to about 110,000 m 3 , then only slowly increased to 130,000 m 3 in 2006.
After 2006, the average size increased rather rapidly again, partly due to the commissioning of larger Q-series
ships. In 2012, the average capacity of an LNG carrier was approximately 148,000 m 3 .
From the expected 2050 distribution of the LNG fleet as given in Table 43 and the assumption that the average
ship size per size bin does not change compared to 2012, it can be concluded that in 2050 the average size of
an LNG ship is expected to have a capacity of approximately 132,000 m 3 . That means that the historical trend
towards larger capacities would not continue.
LPG carriers
Figure 47: Development of average capacity of LNG carriers over the period 1970–2011
and corresponding linear trend
Given the data availability, we apply the second methodology to project the number of LPG ships in the
different size categories in 2050 (see Figure 41).
There are very different LPG carrier types in the market, depending on the cargo type carried, calling for
different security standards, and depending on whether the respective gas is kept liquid by pressure or by
cooling.
In Table 44, the distribution of the LPG fleet over nine size categories in terms of number of ships is given for
end of 2011.