Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014

26 Third IMO GHG Study 2014
Scenario estimation method overview (Section 3)
The consortium developed emissions projections by modelling the international maritime transport demand
and allocating it to ships, projecting regulation- and market-driven energy efficiency changes for each ship.
These are combined with fuel-mix scenarios and projections for the amount of fuel used by international
maritime transport. For most emissions, the energy demand is then multiplied by an emissions factor to arrive
at an emissions projection.
The basis for the transport demand projections is a combination of RCPs and SSPs that have been developed
for IPCC. The RCPs contain detailed projections about energy sources, which is relevant for fossil-fuel transport
projections. The SSPs contain long-term projections of demographic and economic trends, which are relevant
for the projections of demand for transport of non-energy cargoes. RCPs and SSPs are widely used across the
climate community.
The long-term projections are combined with a statistical analysis of historical relationships between changes
in transport demand, economic growth and fossil-fuel consumption.
The energy efficiency improvement projections are part regulation-driven, part market-driven. The relevant
regulations are EEDI for new ships and SEEMP for all ships. Market driven efficiency improvements have been
calculated using MACCs.