Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014

268 Third IMO GHG Study 2014
• The East Asia–US West Coast trade is, apart from the East Asia–Europe trade, the only trade that is
currently ready for the 18,000 TEU size in terms of cargo volumes (ContPort Consult, 2013). So far, ship
owners have been hesitant to utilize very large container ships due to the demand for a high sailing
frequency combined with low terminal productivity at US ports (ContPort Consult, 2013). However,
terminal productivity can be expected to increase until 2050, and more very large container ships can
also expected to be utilized for this trade.
Whether for the other trades even larger ships will be utilized by 2050 is, of course, debatable. Utilization rates
may not be sufficient in the future, or intensive growth (i.e. higher capacity utilization) could, for example, lead
to a slowing down of the ship size growth. For our projection, we therefore assume that the number of larger
ships does increase but that this increase is not very pronounced.
Table 37 gives an overview of the development of the distribution of ships over the size categories that we
expect, along with the respective estimation of the 2050 distribution.
Table 37 – Development of the distribution of container ships over size categories
(in terms of numbers)
Size category (TEU) 2012 distribution Development until 2050 2050 distribution
0–999 22% Very low share of 0–499 TEU does not change; high share of 22%
500–999 TEU unchanged.
1,000–1,999 25% Trend that 1,000–1,999 TEU ships are replaced by
20%
2,000–2,999 14%
2,000–2,999 TEU ships continues.
18%
3,000–4,999 19% Replaced by very large ships (14,500+ TEU) and by 5%
larger ships that can transit Panama Canal after expansion
(probably 8,000–11,999 TEU and some 12,000–14,500 TEU).
5,000–7,999 11% Share as in 2012. 11%
8,000–11,999 7% Share increases due to expansion of Panama Canal. 10%
12,000–14,500 2% Share increases due to ongoing trend of using larger ships, 9%
replacing 3,000–4,999 TEU ships, and due to expansion of
Panama Canal, replacing 3,000–4,999 TEU ships.
14,500–+ 0.2 % Share increases due to ongoing trend of using larger ships,
replacing 3,000–4,999 TEU ships.
5%
If the average ship size per size bin does not change compared to 2012, the average size of a container ship
will be approximately 4,600 TEU or 55,000 dwt in 2050.
In Figure 43, the development of the average ship size of the cellular fleet is given for the period 1988–2014,
showing a steady increase in the average size.
An average size of 4,600 TEU in 2050 means that this trend will slow down in the period until 2050.