Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014

274 Third IMO GHG Study 2014
potentially important users of the new canal. By allowing larger tonnage to pass, a number of markets,
commodities and goods can be expected to benefit. Examples include the following:
a
b
c
d
e
f
g
grain moving from the United States East/Gulf Coast ports to Asia;
soybean moving from developing America to Asia;
coal and iron-ore shipments from Colombia, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and Brazil with
destinations in Asia;
coal shipments from the East Coast of the United States to Asia, in particular China;
oil flowing from Ecuador to the East Coast of the United States;
gas cargo originating from Trinidad and Tobago and destined for consumption in Chile;
gas exports from the United States to Asia.
After the expansion of the Panama Canal, Panamax and parts of the Capesize fleet will be able to transit,
whereas other Capesize ships and all ULOCs and VLOCs will not.
This is why we expect that the share of carriers in the 100,000–199,999 dwt range will increase and that
this growth will come at the expense of ships in the 10,000–99,000 dwt range, with the fleet growth being
captured by the larger ships and, in the long run, with the larger ships replacing the smaller ones.
Bulk carriers of 200,000 dwt and above are predominantly iron ore carriers. Neither ULOCs nor VLOCs can
transit the Panama Canal (U.S. DOT, 2013) or the Suez Canal. Hence, for these ships, the expansion of the
Panama Canal cannot be expected to have a positive impact.
Australia and Brazil are major iron ore exporters, followed by South Africa, India, Canada and Sweden.
China is the major importer of iron ore, followed by Japan, the European Union and the Republic of Korea
(UNCTAD, 2013). A potential negative effect of the expansion of the Panama Canal on very large carriers can
thus not be expected to be large.
It is difficult to estimate whether the share of VLOCs will further rise owing to economies of scale. At the end
of 2012, 18 Valemax (dry bulk ships above 400,000 dwt) were in operation, and after 2012, 10 additional
Valemax were added to the fleet, with three more on order at the beginning of 2014. However, these ships are
used for a very specific trade and some economies of scale have not fully materialized for political reasons.
Our expectation is therefore that the share of 200,000 dwt ships will not increase owing to further economies
of scale.
Table 41 – Development of the distribution of dry bulk ships (including combined carriers)
over size categories in terms of capacity
Size categories bulk ships
Distribution in 2012 Development until 2050 Distribution in 2050
used in update study (dwt)
0–9,999 1% None 1%
10,000–34,999 9% Trend of declining share
6%
35,000–59,999 22%
will continue
20%
60,000–99,999 26% 23%
100,000–199,999 31% As the Panama Canal is
40%
expanded, we expect this
size category to increase
at the expense of ships
10,000–99,999 dwt
200,000–+ 11% Expansion of the Panama
Canal could have a
slight negative effect;
no significant further
economies of scale
expected
10%