Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014

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Executive Summary 19 Demand for coal and oil transport has historically been strongly linked to GDP. However, because of climate policies resulting in a global energy transition, the correlation may break down. Energy transport demand projections are based on projections of energy demand in the RCPs. The demand for transport of fossil fuels is projected to decrease in RCPs that result in modest global average temperature increases (e.g. RCP2.6) and to continue to increase in RCPs that result in significant global warming (e.g. RCP8.5). Figure 12: Historical data to 2012 on global transport work for ship-transported coal and liquid fossil fuels (billion tonne-miles) coupled to projections of coal and energy demand driven by RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 by 2050
20 Third IMO GHG Study 2014 Maritime emissions projections Maritime CO 2 emissions are projected to increase significantly. Depending on future economic and energy developments, our four BAU scenarios project an increase of between 50% and 250% in the period up to 2050 (see Figure 13). Further action on efficiency and emissions could mitigate emissions growth, although all but one scenarios project emissions in 2050 to be higher than in 2012, as shown in Figure 14. Figure 13: BAU projections of CO 2 emissions from international maritime transport 2012–2050 Figure 14: Projections of CO 2 emissions from international maritime transport. Bold lines are BAU scenarios. Thin lines represent either greater efficiency improvement than BAU or additional emissions controls or both
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Page 3 and 4: Published in 2015 by the internatio
Page 6 and 7: Contents Page Preface .............
Page 8 and 9: vii 3.1.2 Outline .............
Page 10: ix Fleet productivity projectio
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Page 22 and 23: List of figures xxi Annex Figures P
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Page 32 and 33: Executive Summary Key findings from
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Page 46 and 47: Executive Summary 15 Summary of Sec
Page 48 and 49: Executive Summary 17 a. CO 2 b. CH
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3 Scenarios for shipping emissions
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Annex 4 Details for Section 1.5.1:
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Annex 4 231 IEA sources of uncertai
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Annex 4 233 Transfers category repo
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Annex 4 235 Figure 24: Time series
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Annex 5 Details for Section 1.5.2:
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Annex 5 239 3 The uncertainty in es
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Annex 5 241 data has been used. The
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Table 22 - Baseline emissions facto
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