Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014

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3.1.2 Outline ........................................................... 128
3.2 Methods and data. ........................................................ 128
3.2.1 The emissions projection model ........................................ 128
3.2.2 Base scenarios. ..................................................... 129
3.2.3 Transport demand projections .......................................... 131
3.2.4 Fleet productivity ................................................... 132
3.2.5 Ship size development. ............................................... 133
3.2.6 EEDI, SEEMP and autonomous improvements in efficiency .................... 134
3.2.7 Fuel mix: market- and regulation-driven changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
3.2.8 Emissions factors .................................................... 136
3.3 Results ................................................................. 137
3.3.1 Transport demand ................................................... 137
3.3.2 Projected CO 2 emissions .............................................. 139
3.3.3 Results for other substances. ........................................... 143
3.3.4 Sensitivity to productivity and speed assumptions ........................... 144
3.3.5 Uncertainty ........................................................ 145
3.4 Main results ............................................................. 145
Bibliography for Main Report and Annexes. ................................... 147
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Annex 1 Details for Section 1.2:
bottom-up method. .............................................. 153
IHSF technical data and method for populating missing data ............................ 153
IHSF operational data .......................................................... 154
Estimating ship activity over the course of a year using AIS data ......................... 159
Sources and spatial and temporal coverage ...................................... 159
Pre-processing AIS data ........................................................ 160
Multi-MMSI merging. .......................................................... 163
Extrapolating ship annual profile to generate complete annual operational profiles. .......... 165
Assumptions for auxiliary and boiler power demands. ................................. 167
Assumptions for main and auxiliary fuel type ........................................ 173
Assumptions for hull fouling and deterioration over time ............................... 173
Assumptions for the impact of weather on fuel consumption ............................ 173
Activity and fleet data merger ................................................... 174
Bottom-up model calculation procedure ........................................... 175
Powering subroutine: Power_at_op ............................................ 176
Emissions subroutine: Emissions_at_op. ......................................... 177
Aggregation by ship type and size ............................................. 178
Fleet estimate assembly. ........................................................ 178
Annex 2 Details for Section 1.3:
inventory results ................................................. 179
2011 Detailed Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
2010 Detailed Results .......................................................... 183
2009 Detailed Results .......................................................... 186
2008 Detailed Results .......................................................... 189
2007 Detailed Results .......................................................... 192