Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014

Annex 7 275
Liquefied gas carriers
LNG carriers
Given data availability, we apply the second methodology to project the number of LNG ships in the different
size categories in 2050 (see Figure 41).
The first LNG cargo was shipped in 1959 (Danish Ship Finance, 2014); the market for LNG carriers is thus
relatively young. The LNG fleet grew rapidly in the 1970s, stagnated in the 1980s, then started growing again
in the 1990s (Stopford, 2009) and grew rapidly in recent years. At the end of 2012, total capacity of the fleet
was more than one and a half times the size of the fleet at the end of 2006 (IGU, 2013).
In Table 42, the distribution of the LNG fleet in terms of numbers of ships over five size categories is given for
2012.
Table 42 – Distribution of global LNG fleet over size categories
in terms of numbers in 2012
Capacity range (m 3 )
Share
18,000–124,999 7%
125,000–149,999 62%
150,000–177,000 19%
178,000–210,000 0%
210,000–+ 12%
Source: IGU (2013)
There is only a very small number of carriers of 18,000 m 3 and below. These are typically used in domestic
and coastal trades. The smallest cross-border LNG ships, typically 18,000–40,000 m 3 , are mostly used to
transport LNG from South-East Asia to smaller terminals in Japan. The most common class of LNG carrier has
a capacity of 125,000–149,000 m 3 , representing 62% of the global LNG fleet in 2012. The existing carriers
with a capacity of 150,000–177,000 m 3 constituted 19% of the 2012 LNG fleet. Most of the carriers ordered
fall into this category (IGU, 2013).
The category with the largest LNG ships consists of Q-Flex and Q-Max ships, a Q-Max ship having a capacity
of 263,000–266,000 m 3 . Thirteen Q-Max ships have been built so far. (Qatargas, 2014)
Depending on whether the LNG export projects submitted to the US Department of Energy are approved
(currently four out of the 20 have been approved), the US could turn from a net importer to a net exporter of
LNG (Deloitte, 2013)
The expansion of the Panama Canal could therefore play a crucial role in the LNG market, since at present
only 10% of the LNG fleet can pass through the canal (Lloyd’s List, 2012). After the expansion, about 80%
of LNG ships will be able to transit. The only LNG carriers that have been identified as unable to transit the
new locks due to their size are the 31 Q-Flex ships of 216,000 m 3 and the 14 Q-Max ships of 266,000 m 3
(BIMCO, 2013).
The impact on the size of the LNG carriers is not, however, straightforward: on the one hand, very large LNG
carriers (>200,000 m 3 ) could play an increasing role in LNG trade between the US East Coast and Europe
and the US West Coast and Asia, but on the other hand, these large ships would call for pipelines to meet the
demand needs in the different regions of the importing country/continent as well as for pipelines within the US
to avoid the Panama Canal transit. In our projection, we therefore assume that the share of 50,000–199,999 m 3
ships will increase at the expense of very large carriers.