Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014

Annex 7 281
between the average improvements and the face value of the required improvements diminishes with
increasing stringency.
Figure 49: Impact of the Poisson distribution on EEDI efficiency improvements
Bazari and Longva (2011) conclude that waivers are unlikely to be used, as they bring risks and costs but no
benefits.
Anink and Krikke (2011) calculate EEDI reduction factors assuming that all ships above the line improve their
EEDI to the reference line and others will not act. Their results indicate that the improvement in efficiency
is smaller than the value of the reduction, but it is not clear whether this is because many small ships are
included in the sample, which are exempt from EEDI or have a lower reduction target, or because of their
methodology.
Hence, there are two views on what the impact of EEDI regulation on new designs would be. One view is that
it would improve the efficiency of all new ships, except for the most efficient ones. The other is that only the
design of ships above the reference line would be affected. Both result in an average improvement in design
efficiency that is larger than the reduction factor. The exact improvement depends on the share of current
ships that are above the baseline and on the stringency: the larger the reduction relative to the baseline, the
lower the difference between the average reduction and the required reduction.
In line with Bazari and Longva (2011), we assume that the average efficiency improvement of new ships
increases from 3% in phase 0 to 22.5% in phase 3, according to the table below, as a result of the Poisson
distribution of ship efficiency.
Table 50 – Impact of the Poisson distribution on EEDI efficiency improvements
Required reduction relative to baseline
Average efficiency improvements
of new builds relative to corrected
baseline
Average efficiency improvements of
new builds relative to baseline
0% 10% 3%
10% 17% 11%
20% 24% 18%
30% 30% 22.5%
We follow Bazari and Longva (2011) in their analysis that it is unlikely that ship owners will apply for a waiver.
Impact of SEEMP on emissions
Bazari and Longva (2011) identify great uncertainty surrounding the effects of SEEMP. They speculate that 30%
to 60% of the cost-effective operational measures will be implemented as a result of SEEMP.