Third IMO Greenhouse Gas Study 2014

Inventories of CO2 emissions from international shipping 2007–2012 31
Table 9 – Summary of IEA fuel sales data in shipping (million tonnes)
Marine sector Fuel type 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
International marine bunkers HFO 174.1 177.0 165.9 178.9 177.9
MDO 26.0 22.7 24.9 28.2 29.6
LNG 0 0 0 0 0
International total 200.1 199.7 190.8 207.1 207.5
Domestic navigation HFO 19.9 14.2 15.3 14.3 12.7
MDO 22.7 23.9 23.6 25.7 27.4
LNG 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.07
Domestic total 42.64 38.15 38.95 40.05 40.17
Fishing HFO 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.8
MDO 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.1
LNG 0.04 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.05
Fishing total 6.54 6.02 6.04 6.02 5.95
Total 249.28 243.87 235.79 253.17 253.62
The time series for top-down fuel inventories reveals some correlation, which may be interpreted as a response
to the economic conditions (lower fuel consumption). The consortium evaluated the top-down consumption
data trends for international marine fuel oil and the world GDP trends as reported by the World Bank’s
World Development Indicators. “World Development Indicators (WDI) is the primary World Bank collection
of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized international sources. It presents the most
current and accurate global development data available, and includes national, regional and global estimates”
(World Bank, November 2013).
Figure 22 illustrates this correlation graphically and shows the correlation coefficient for 2000–2012 to be very
high (96.5%). This trend also shows correlation with the start of economic recovery in 2009. The divergence
between fuel oil consumption and GDP trends since 2010 could be a function of three factors:
1 energy efficiency measures adopted by shipping in response to price;
2 fuel-switching to gas diesel or natural gas fuels;
3 a lag in shipping activity change compared to world GDP change.
Further time series and additional analysis beyond the scope of this study would be required to evaluate
post-recession changes further.
Figure 22: Correlation between world GDP and international bunker fuel oil during the recession