russia_and_georgia_s.. - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and ...
russia_and_georgia_s.. - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and ...
russia_and_georgia_s.. - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and ...
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koordinacia. esec sakmarisia, rom aRaraferi vTqvaT qveynebis politikuri<br />
xelisuflebebisTvis SedarebiT umniSvnelo sakiTxebze, rogorc, magaliTad,<br />
aris bunebrivi garemos dacva Tu epidemiologia. aqve unda SevniSnoT, rom yvela<br />
sfero, romlebSic Teoriulad emTxveva am ori qveynis interesi, mniSvnelovania<br />
dasavleTisaTvisac, da pirvel rigSi _ evrokavSirisaTvis.<br />
aq aRsaniSnavia Taviseburi paradoqsi _ ruseTi Tavad aqtiurad eswrafvis<br />
dasavleTTan daaxloebas, oRond, marTalia, Tanabari da gansakuTrebuli<br />
partniorobis pirobiT, magram igi gadametebuli eWvianobiT reagirebs, rodesac<br />
sxva postsabWoTa qveynebs uCndebaT igive survili. es unda ukavSirdebodes<br />
Tavad ruseTis gaorebul damokidebulebas dasavleTis mimarT, mas ar SeuZlia<br />
ra gadawyvitos, ramdenad fundamenturi da strategiulia misi dasavluri<br />
orientacia, anu ajobebs Tu ara, rom es partnioroba iyos mxolod droebiTi da<br />
taqtikuri. nebismier SemTxvevaSi, ruseTis politika saqarTvelos mimarT aRar<br />
aris mxolod ormxrivi urTierTobis sakiTxi. ruseTma unda gaiTvaliswinos<br />
Tavisi urTierTdamokidebuleba dasavleTTan, rac garkveulad uzRudavs<br />
ruseTis SesaZleblobas, rom Tavis mezoblebze zewolis ufro odiozuri<br />
saSualebebi gamoiyenos. marTalia, rodesac ruseTis moqmedebebi ar emuqreba<br />
dasavleTis qveynebis sasicocxlo mniSvnelobis interesebs, rogorc es iyo,<br />
magaliTad, 2008 wlis saqarTvelosTan konfliqtis dros, maSin dasavleTi<br />
mxolod ritorikuli SefasebebiT Semoifargleba xolme, risi ignorirebac<br />
ruseTs advilad SeuZlia. magram rodesac safrTxe eqmneba regionuli<br />
usafrTxoebis sakvanZo prioritetebsa Tu ekonomikur interesebs, dasavleTi<br />
da, kerZod, aSS bevrad ufro gadaWriT moqmedeben (magaliTad, energetikuli<br />
damoukideblobis uzrunvelyofis sferoSi).<br />
aqve unda iTqvas, rom zemoT CamoTvlili zogi faqtoris mniSvneloba SeiZleba<br />
Seicvalos droTa msvlelobaSi, TviT ganxilul qveynebSi da/an maTi<br />
urTierTqmedebis geopolitikuri konteqstis farglebSi mimdinare procesebis<br />
Sedegad. amgvar umniSvnelovanes cvlilebebs, Tuki davuSvebT mmarTveli<br />
elitebis SedarebiT racionalur qcevas, SeiZleba mivakuTvnoT uaxloes or<br />
weliwadSi orive qveyanaSi xelisuflebis Secvlisa da, Sesabamisad, sagareo<br />
politikis kursis gadaxalisebis, aseve farTo bWobis sagnad qceuli<br />
modernizaciis perspeqtivebi. rogorc Cans, ormxrivi urTierTobebis sferoSi<br />
arsebuli mdgomareoba, sul cota, 2012 wlamde SenarCundeba. savaraudod, 2012-<br />
2014 wlebis periodi didwilad gansazRvravs momavali aTwleulis manZilze<br />
rusul-qarTul urTierTobebis xasiaTs, Tumca, mravali faqtoris arsebobisa<br />
da SesaZlo SemTxveviTobidan gamomdinare — movlenaTa gauTvaliswinebeli gziT<br />
ganviTarebac ar aris gamoricxuli. zogadad ki vladimer gelmanis 195 prognozi<br />
moklevadian perspeqtivaSi saxavs sakmaod realistur scenars orive<br />
mxarisaTvis, imisda miuxedavad, Tu romeli konkretuli piri mova<br />
xelisuflebaSi am qveynebSi. Tumca, saqarTvelos perspeqtiva ufro mimzidvelad<br />
gamoiyureba, misi mcire zomisa da naklebi inerciulobis, Tan SedarebiT ufro<br />
ganviTarebuli demokratiuli institutebis gamo.<br />
195 `jerjerobiT usafuZvloa vivaraudoT, rom kardinalurad Seicvleba dReisaTvis ruseTSi<br />
arsebuli politikuri institutebis araefeqturi avtoritarizmi da SemuSavdeba ufro axali<br />
da warmatebuli, myari demokratiuli `TamaSis wesebi~... dReisaTvis SeiZleba gamoiyos ruseTis<br />
politikuri institutebis moklevadiani evoluciis ori sabazo varianti: an axl<strong>and</strong>eli<br />
status-kvos SenarCuneba (sabWoTa kavSiris droindeli eniT rom vTqvaT, maTi Semdgomi<br />
`lpoba~), <strong>and</strong>a avtoritaruli tendenciebis gaZlierebiT (anu `Zlieri xelis~ gamoyenebiT) maTi<br />
dabalefeqtianobis daZlevis mcdeloba. dReisaTvis orTave am variantis albaTobis Sefaseba<br />
rTulia; viTareba gairkveva ruseTis 2011-2012 wlebis saarCevno ciklis dasrulebis Semdeg~.<br />
Владимир Гельман. Политические институты. 2010. http://<strong>russia</strong>-2020.org/2010/09/14/political-institutions-2/<br />
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