russia_and_georgia_s.. - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and ...
russia_and_georgia_s.. - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and ...
russia_and_georgia_s.. - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and ...
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konfliqtis zonebSi saomari moqmedebebis ganaxlebis saSiSroeba. Tumca<br />
rusul-qarTuli urTierTobebis arsebul mdgomareobas moskovi<br />
usafrTxoebis uSualo saSiSroebad ar ganixilavs (garda SeSfoTebisa,<br />
romelsac iwvevs saqarTvelos iseTi nabijebi, rasac ruseTi ganixilavs,<br />
rogorc CrdiloeT kavkasiaSi viTarebaSi Carevis mcdelobas). aRniSnuli<br />
usafrTxoebis sferoSi rusuli interesebis realizacias sxva mimarTulebebiT<br />
uqmnis an SeuZlia Seuqmnas iribi winaaRmdegobebi.<br />
dReisaTvis regionSi rusuli diplomatiis gansakuTrebuli Zalisxmeva<br />
iqiTkenaa mimarTuli, rom ar dauSvas sabrZolo moqmedebebis ganaxleba mTian<br />
yarabaRSi. es, humanitaruli mosazrebebis garda, ganpirobebulia imiT, rom<br />
axali omis dawyebis SemTxvevaSi moskovi SeiZleba aRmoCndes iseT<br />
mdgomareobaSi, rom an azerbaijanTan urTierTobebis msxverplad gaReba<br />
mouwios, an dauSvas koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekrulebis organizaciaSi<br />
partniorebis SemoTavazebul usafrTxoebis garantiebTan dakavSirebuli<br />
rwmenis kritikuli vardna. mTian yarabaRSi cecxlis Sewyvetis reJimis<br />
hipoTeturi darRvevis SemTxvevaSi SesaZlebelia viTarebis ganviTarebis iseTi<br />
scenarebi, rodesac ruseTi ar aRmoCndeba aseTi dramatuli arCevnis winaSe,<br />
Tumca misi mxridan gonivruli iqneboda sakuTari stategiis Camoyalibeba,<br />
sadac gaTvlili iqneboda yvelaze cudi scenaris ganviTarebis albaToba.<br />
saqarTvelosTan urTierTobis dRev<strong>and</strong>eli mdgomareoba xels uSlis ruseTs<br />
efeqturad ganaviTaros urTierToba somxeTTan, rac obieqturad asustebs<br />
qveyanas, romelic ruseTisTvis umniSvnelovanesi partnioria regionSi.<br />
mTian yarabaRTan dakavSirebiT saerTaSoriso Suamavlebi emxrobian cecxlis<br />
ganuaxleblobis Taobaze konsolidirebul pozicias. es konfliqti ar<br />
warmoadgens SuamavalTa metoqeobis sababs, mis mogvarebasTan dakavSirebiT maT<br />
saerTo midgomebi aqvT. bolo aTwleulis manZilze ruseTma daabalansa<br />
sakuTari politika somxeTisa da azerbaijanis mimarTulebiT, rac exmareba mas<br />
ufro efeqturad ganaxorcielos Tavisi saSuamavlo misia. yovelive es<br />
gvaZlevs safuZvels vivaraudoT, rom mTian yarabaRSi viTarebis SesaZlo<br />
daZabva ar miva ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris daZabulobis eskalaciamde,<br />
rogorc es moxda 2008 wlis agvistoSi, samxreT oseTSi samxedro moqmedebebis<br />
ganaxlebis Semdeg.<br />
afxazeTTan da samxreT oseTTan dakavSirebiT ruseTisa da dasavleTis<br />
poziciebi radikalurad gansxvavdeba. amasTan, orive mxarem moaxerxa es<br />
uTanxmoebebi gaemijna urTierTobebis zogadi konteqstidan. aSS da nato<br />
acnobiereben, rom ar gaaCniaT ruseTze zegavlenis iseTi meqanizmebi, rac<br />
ruseTs uars aTqmevinebda afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis aRiarebaze. SeiniSneba<br />
garkveuli distancia aSS-isa da evrokavSiris midgomebs Soris or nawilobriv<br />
aRiarebul respublikasTan dakavSirebiT: evrokavSirma miiRo koncefcia<br />
`CarTuloba aRiarebis gareSe~, xolo aSS inarCunebs uwindebur mkacr pozicias.<br />
amJamad afxazeTsa da (an) samxreT oseTSi samxedro moqmedebebis ganaxlebas<br />
moskovi naklebsarwmuno scenarad miiCnevs. Tumca, omis patara albaToba<br />
aixsneba ara saqarTvelosa da mis yofil avtonomiebs Soris winaaRmdegobis<br />
simZafris klebiT, aramed ori respublikisTvis ruseTis mier micemuli<br />
usafrTxoebis garantiebiT. imis miuxedavad, rom rusi eqspertebis SefasebiT,<br />
2008 wlis agvistods Semdgom periodSi saqarTvelom sakuTari samxedro<br />
potencialis aRdgena da, SesaZloa, gazrdac SeZlo, igi afxazeTisTvis da<br />
samxreT oseTisTvis SeiaraRebuli SetakebisTvis mzad ar aris 2 . Teoriulad<br />
situacia SeiZleba Seicvalos, Tuki saqarTvelo SeZlebs gaaZlieros Tavisi<br />
2 Барабанов М.С, Лавров А.В, Целуйко В.А. Танки августа. М.: «Центр анализа стратегий и технологий», 2009, 92.<br />
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