russia_and_georgia_s.. - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and ...
russia_and_georgia_s.. - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and ...
russia_and_georgia_s.. - Georgian Foundation for Strategic and ...
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qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis mogvarebis perspeqtivebi<br />
Sesavali<br />
98<br />
giorgi Tarxan-mouravi<br />
sazogadoebrivi politikis institutis<br />
TanaTavmjdomare<br />
`TiTqos rusebi xarT, rusuli ki ar gesmiT! ra ucnaurebi brZ<strong>and</strong>ebiT,<br />
batonebo! dacaleba, anu unda moergoT garemoebas, SeZloT droulad<br />
gaCumeba, raRac-raRacebi daiviwyoT, imaze ar ifiqroT, razec Cveulebriv<br />
gefiqrebaT, is ar akeToT, rasac Cveulebriv akeTebT...~<br />
m.e. saltikov-SCedrini, `Tanamedrove idilia~.<br />
bolo ori aTwleulis ganmavlobaSi, sabWoTa kavSiris daSlidan moyolebuli,<br />
saqarTvelo-ruseTis urTirTobebSi iyo rogorc gamwvavebis, ise daZabulobis<br />
SedarebiT miwynarebis periodebi, magram TiTqmis arasdros hqonda adgili<br />
normalur da Tanaswor keTilmezoblobas am or, Tundac gansxvavebuli<br />
sididis, qveyanas Soris. am ori qveynis urTierTobam katastroful gamwvavebas<br />
2008 wlis agvistoSi miaRwia, xolo mas Semdeg imyofeba latenturi mtrobis<br />
mdgomareobaSi, xelaxali gamwvavebis riskiT.<br />
raki dReisaTvis saqarTvelosa da ruseTis mTavrobebis urTierTsawinaaRmdego<br />
poziciebi aqvs garkveul sakiTxebSi, kerZod ki _ afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis<br />
samarTlebriv statusTan dakavSirebiT, naTelia, rom am or mezobel qveyanas<br />
Soris urTierTobis radikalur gaumjobesebas uaxloes momavalSi ar unda<br />
velodoT. aseT viTarebaSi saWiroa droebiTi modalobis Zieba, romelSic<br />
mxareebi mSvidobian Tanaarsebobas SeZleben da saWiroebis SemTxvevaSi<br />
moaxdenen moqmedebebis koordinirebas da xelaxali daZabulobis Tavidan<br />
aicilebas, vidre geopolitikuri Tu Sidapolitikuri pirobebi ise ar<br />
Seicvleba, rom gaxdes SesaZlebeli dReisaTvis dauZleveli winaaRmdegobebis<br />
gadasinjva.<br />
qarTul-rusuli urTierTobebis modelebi drois sxvadasxva perspeqtivaSi rom<br />
ganvixiloT, aucilebelia isini davinaxoT geopolitikur qvesistemebad,<br />
romlebic damokidebulia mraval faqtorze _ rogorebicaa, kerZod, saerTo<br />
geopolitikur konteqsti, mxareebis mier dasaxuli miznebi da amocanebi,<br />
qveynebis specifika, movlenaTa ganviTarebis SesaZlo scenarebi da<br />
tendenciebi.<br />
geopolitikuri konteqsti<br />
ukanaskneli aTwleulis manZilze bevri iseTi movlena Tu procesi ganviTarda,<br />
ramac safuZvlianad Secvala msoflio wesrigi, xolo cota xnis win<br />
ybadaRebuli `istoriis dasasruli~ mxolod epoqis dasasruli aRmoCnda.<br />
marTlac, civi omis periodSi Camoyalibebuli msoflio mowyoba nel-nela<br />
iqceva istoriad _ Cndeba pirveli niSnebi axali warmonaqmnebisa, romlebic<br />
wina epoqis moZvelebul institutebs cvlian. globalizaciis procesebi axal<br />
saxes iZens, viTardeba alternatiuli _ deglobalizaciis, msoflio wesrigis<br />
fragmentaciis, procesebi. vaRiarebT ra kozma prutkovis princips `moucvads<br />
ver moicav~ da gaviTvaliswinebT ra garkveuli gamartivebis garduvalobas,<br />
SevecdebiT gamovyoT ramdenime mniSvnelovani mimarTuleba da movlena,
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